FRISCO, Texas -- The hottest, most in-the-zone, locked-in quarterback and offense the last five weeks of the 2023 NFL season are Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. Prescott rewrote some records in a 49-17 Week 10 win against the New York Giants in just three quarters of work, becoming the first Cowboy with 300 or more passing yards (404) and three touchdowns (four) in three consecutive games. He also became the first Cowboy with 400 or more passing yards (404), four or more passing touchdowns (four) and one rushing touchdown (one) in a single game. Prescott did all of that in three quarters of work by the way.
His prolific production in tandem with Pro Bowl wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, the NFC's Week 10 Offensive Player of the Week, across the last five weeks has launched his 2023 season totals into the realms of top-five quarterback play by league-wide standards, a distinction that chews up hours worth of debates on sports talk shows and social media alike.
"He's all football," head coach Mike McCarthy said postgame. "He loves everything about it. The training. When you look at this game, Sundays are really for free. What he does Monday through Saturday is so so impressive, and it's important because we made changes from last year. These guys have worked hard to do the things that they've been asked to do, and it's nice to see it come together. Nice to see the success they're having because they definitely put the work in. We're really finding our stride with the game plans and things like that. He is definitely playing at a high level."
Dak Prescott this season
| NFL QB RANK | ||
|---|---|---|
Completion Pct | 70.7% | 1st |
Pass Yards/Att | 8.1 | 5th |
Pass TD | 17 | T-5th |
TD-INT | 17-6 | 6th |
Passer Rating | 105.1 | 3rd |
| Expected Points Added/Play | 0.14 | 4th |
The line of demarcation for his and the Cowboys' jump in performance can be drawn back to the tweaks they made and the comfort they settled into following the face plant against the 49ers.
"It goes back to the offseason work that we put into this, we're nine games into this," Prescott said. "The first couple, we were feeling it out. Coach Mike and me probably will be the first to tell you that the first game him calling some plays, trying to do this and trying to do that. For me, just really listening to my feet, me being bought into protection, bought into the reads. Allowing my feet to talk to me, whether one's there, two's there, whatever, for the double hitch, you start to run. I really just think that it's all coming together, but it just all goes back into the preparation way back into the spring. We've continued to talk and communicate. Something that has been huge is the play-calling purpose. I understand what he wants and what he's trying to get after on each and every play. With that, I know that I have the freedom to get us out of something else to get us in this, if it's that look. Or allow me to play my game, allow the read to come to me and then use my feet to move. It's been really fun."
The Cowboys lead the NFL in points per game (31.5), total yards per game (443.8) and yards per play (6.5) since Week 6, the week following their 42-10 debacle on "Sunday Night Football" at the 49ers. A couple of the things they have tweaked schematically have been their increase in motion rate and significant increase in shotgun formations (up by almost 12% since Week 6 in comparison to Weeks 1-5), spreading out opposing defenses, which has allowed Prescott to quickly discern and then dissect opposing defenses. It's also led to him going deep more successfully, as his 23 completions of 20-or-more downfield since Week 6 lead the league.
The two-time Pro Bowl passer maintains their offensive shift isn't a phase; it's who they are now.
"It's a good question, I think it's who we are, and I think that's what makes it (feel like) we're in the zone," Prescott said Thursday when asked about if this is what their offense was going to be going forward or if it's just an all-time heater. "When you're really feeling like yourself, I feel like if anybody individually, you get your hair cut, you put on your outfit, you're going to be in a zone because you feel confident and … when you look in the mirror, when you talk to other people, that's how you feel. And so for us, that's what it's been. Obviously even in a loss (at the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 9), there was success and we weren't going to get down on ourselves. ... We're going to get right back at it and go fishing again."
Cowboys offense this season
| WEEKS 1-5 | WEEKS 6-10 | |
|---|---|---|
Offensive PPG | 21.2* | 31.5** |
Total YPG | 327.4* | 443.8** |
| Yards/Play | 4.9* | 6.5** |
| Air Yards/Pass Att | 6.6* | 9.5** |
| Motion Rate | 45.6%* | 48.3% |
| Shotgun Rate | 55.3%* | 67.2% |
| Run Pct | 47.1%** | 39.1%* |
| Third Down Pct | 49.3%** | 44.2%** |
| Red Zone TD Pct | 36.8%* | 65.0%** |
| Time of Possession | 32:16** | 33:05** |
- * Ranks 16th or worse in NFL
- ** Top 10 in NFL
"I really think it's just all coming together, honestly," Prescott added. "Going back to the spring and everything that we've wanted to do coming into the season, having the first few games to really figure out, I guess you could say, who we are. And I just think after the tough loss out there and getting back together on that Monday night and then going into the bye week, we had a great sample size of this is what we're doing well, these are the things we need to build off of. Obviously, I love the motions. I love, love being, I don't want to say necessarily in the shotgun, but the ball in my hands, being able to spread it out, being able to throw it to guys, get it to these guys in space, allow them to go make (defensive) players miss. It's been fun, honestly. Obviously I've talked about it before, my feet just being in sync with the reads and the guys understanding the footwork. Everything is just really coming together."
While there is a considerable sample size gap, Prescott has thrived when throwing out of the shotgun formation, a formation that McCarthy has leaned on at a much higher rate over the past five weeks. The move makes sense considering Prescott's 71.8% completion percentage, 109.6 passer rating and 0.29 expected points added/play (EPA) when in shotgun leads the NFL in 2023.
Dak Prescott throwing out of shotgun vs. under center (2023 season)
| Shotgun | Under center | |
|---|---|---|
Comp Pct | 71.8% (173/241)* | 66.1% (39/59) |
Pass Yards/Att | 8.5* | 6.0 |
TD | 15* | 2 |
TD-INT | 15-5* | 2-1 |
Passer Rating | 109.6* | 86.5 |
| EPA/Play | 0.29* | -0.36 |
- * Top five in NFL
Another critical component of the offensive schematic changes has been an uptick in the Cowboys' motion usage, something that can be seen springing Lamb open in a variety of ways on Sundays.
"[Motion] just stresses the defense at the end of the day," Prescott said. "We're running things that we're really good at just finding different ways to dress them up. From there, we're putting stress on guys with the slower motion, whether it be the fast motion. Breaking in and out formations, getting to other formations, making those guys communicate quickly on the fly. That just puts us at advantage."
While the schematic changes have played a role, the Cowboys coaching staff believes Prescott's execution of McCarthy's scheme has never been higher.
"I think it's the decision-making," offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer said Monday when asked what the difference in Prescott's play has been. ... "He's really seeing the field well. He's going through his progressions, he's being decisive, he's not putting the ball in harm's way very often. The decisions and the way he is seeing things is just very clean. It starts with his preparation early in the week. ... The way he drives our protection series with (center) Tyler Biadasz, that stuff doesn't go unnoticed. To play quarterback in this league has to be the hardest thing to do in sports, I believe it is. [Against the Giants], he was magnificent with protection adjustments and the run-checks. He's just in total command."
One of the more recent times Prescott has played at this high of a level over sustained period of time was his 2021 season in which he threw 37 touchdown passes, a Cowboys single-season record. Entering his 10th game of the season, Prescott is out-pacing his numbers from that year in nearly every major statistical category because his confidence in the Dallas offense and what it is running has never been higher.
Dak Prescott first nine games (2021 vs. 2023)
| 2021** | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|
Completion Pct | 69.6%* | 70.7%* |
Pass Yards/Att | 7.8 | 8.1* |
Pass TD | 20 | 17* |
TD-INT | 20-7 | 17-6 |
Passer Rating | 103.9 | 105.1* |
| Expected Points Added/Play | 0.12 | 0.14* |
- * Top five in NFL
- ** Set Cowboys single-season pass TD record with 37
"I've never been a statistics guy," Prescott said. "I can tell you that I've never been as confident, as free, and as connected with other guys on the offense, play-calling and just this whole system and what we're trying to get after as I am now. Credit to those guys, credit to Coach McCarthy, credit to Schottenheimer, (quarterbacks coach Scott) Tolzien and the rest of the offensive staff. Being able to communicate exactly what we're trying to get what we're getting after. Showing me looks and preparing me. But then, obviously, the work that me and these guys have put in. Whether it be on our own or film study, whether it be individually or together when coach and them go over everything. It feels good honestly. Great chemistry. We're just going to continue to build. This isn't about me, rather than that. This is about this team. We have a hell of a defense, and we need to make sure that we continue putting up points. Allow those guys to hunt the other quarterback and be tough."
Prescott's chemistry has never been higher with Lamb, who became the first player in NFL history to have three consecutive games of 10 or more catches and 150 or more receiving yards across Dallas' last three games. That's because this is really their first time both being en fuego for an extended amount of time. Prescott missed the final 11 games of the 2020 season with a fractured ankle, Lamb's rookie year. He shared top receiver responsibilities with four-time Pro Bowler Amari Cooper in 2021. Prescott suffered a right thumb injury that caused him to miss five games last season. Now, both are healthy and fully in-sync in their fourth season together in 2023.
"We've been together for four years now, and we've always got like spurts of each other, the best of his was like my rookie year when he came out throwing for 400 (three times) in the first five games," Lamb said Thursday. "Second year didn't have him much in the first half. Third year, same thing kind of thing on the back end, but now we just kind of putting this season together, and then we're starting to get hot at the same time, both of us. So, that's amazing for the offense. Amazing for us and we just got to keep moving, keep adding in our pieces."
"When you got a guy like that, he makes our job easier," Prescott said of Lamb. "The more trust, more we're talking, working together, getting reps at practice carries over into the game. The trust goes up, you're going to see the production go up."
MVP?
Prescott's 0.28 expected points added/play (EPA/play) has skyrocketed and leads all qualified QBs since Week 6 by a wide margin. The next closest quarterbacks are Lamar Jackson (0.18), Jalen Hurts (0.16) and C.J. Stroud (0.15). For context, 2022 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes led the NFL at 0.25. Prescott has +2200 odds to be the 2023 NFL MVP, according to Caesars Sportsbook, tied for the seventh-best odds in the league at the moment.
Dak Prescott since Week 6
| NFL QB RANK | ||
|---|---|---|
Completion Pct | 72.1% | 2nd |
Pass Yards/Att | 9.7 | 1st |
Pass TD | 12 | 1st |
TD-INT | 12-2 | 3rd |
Passer Rating | 125.1 | 1st |
| Expected Points Added/Play | 0.28 | 1st |
"I do, I certainly do," Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones said Tuesday on 105.3FM in Dallas on Tuesday when asked if Prescott should be considered for NFL MVP. "He's put together a series of games that are the best of his career in my view. It's the fact that he's doing them back to back. ... Boy is he really in a position where it's not only physical, but it's mental. He's really showed us that the hard work and time he has put in and frankly the adjustments that have been made over the past year, we're really seeing the fruits of that."
