The Miami Dolphins made a big decision on Tuesday by reportedly replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick with Tua Tagovailoa ahead of their Week 7 bye. The move comes days after Fitzpatrick helped guide Miami to its second straight win -- and just a game out of first place in the AFC East. And while the upside of the turn to Tua justifies the Dolphins' unexpected change at quarterback, you might be wondering what history has to say about rookie QBs and how their teams tend to fare after they take over under center.

The short answer: It isn't pretty. Again, the Dolphins are in the unique position of both needing some juice for a rare AFC East title run and needing to see what they have beyond 2020, so unleashing Tagovailoa early on is probably the right move. But if you're going strictly off previous results of first-round QB takeovers, the numbers heavily suggest Miami is bound to sit out the playoffs altogether. Of course, that could all change if Tua hits the ground running (not literally speaking), but history is working against the Dolphins for sure.

We decided to comb through every one of the first-round QBs of the last 10 years, including this season, and chart what happened in their first start, which veteran they replaced, and how their respective teams finished the year. Here are the broad results:

No ad available

Combined record of QB first career starts: 9-20-1
Combined record of teams with QB change: 168-282-3
Best team finish: 2012 Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Worst team finish: Five-way tie (3-13)

Understand, most of all, that teams turning to rookie first-round QBs are often on track for bad seasons anyway; there's a reason they were able to draft a QB so high in the first place. In other words, it shouldn't be a surprise that the majority of teams who've made switches to first-round QBs ended up with losing records. Still, if anything, it should speak to the unlikely position in which the Dolphins have placed themselves by making the call at 3-3 and in the division race. Should the Tagovailoa swap work, it'll also stand out as one of the rare occasions where a first-round rookie successfully uplifted his entire team that same season.

No ad available

Here's the full breakdown of first-round QBs to get their first career starts over the last 10 years:

2020

QBTeamDraftedReplacedFirst StartTeam Finish

Joe Burrow

Bengals

No. 1

Andy Dalton Week 1 (L, 16-13)

TBD (1-4-1)

Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins

No. 5

Ryan Fitzpatrick Week 8 (TBD)

TBD

Justin HerbertChargersNo. 6Tyrod TaylorWeek 2 (L, 23-20)TBD (1-4)

2019

QBTeamDraftedReplacedFirst StartTeam Finish

Kyler Murray

Cardinals

No. 1

Josh Rosen Week 1 (T, 27-27)

5-10-1

Daniel Jones

Giants

No. 6

Eli Manning Week 3 (W, 32-31)

4-12

Dwayne HaskinsWashingtonNo. 15Case Keenum
Week 9 (L, 24-9)3-13

2018

QBTeamDraftedReplacedFirst StartTeam Finish

Baker Mayfield

Browns

No. 1

Tyrod Taylor Week 4 (L, 45-42)

7-8-1

Sam Darnold

Jets

No. 3

Josh McCown Week 1 (W, 48-17)

4-12

Josh AllenBillsNo. 7Nathan PetermanWeek 2 (L, 31-20)6-10
Josh RosenCardinalsNo. 10Sam Bradford
Week 4 (L, 20-17)3-13
Lamar JacksonRavensNo. 32Joe FlaccoWeek 11 (W, 24-21)10-6

2017

QBTeamDraftedReplacedFirst StartTeam Finish

Mitchell Trubisky

Bears

No. 2

Mike GlennonWeek 5 (L, 20-17)

5-11

Patrick Mahomes

Chiefs

No. 10

Alex Smith Week 17 (W, 27-24)

10-6

Deshaun WatsonTexansNo. 12Tom SavageWeek 2 (W, 13-9)4-12

2016

QBTeamDraftedReplacedFirst StartTeam Finish

Jared Goff

Rams

No. 1

Case Keenum Week 11 (L, 14-10)

4-12

Carson Wentz

Eagles

No. 2

Sam Bradford Week 1 (W, 29-10)

7-9

Paxton LynchBroncosNo. 26Trevor SiemianWeek 5 (L, 23-16)9-7

2015

QBTeamDraftedReplacedFirst StartTeam Finish

Jameis Winston

Buccaneers

No. 1

Josh McCown Week 1 (L, 42-14)

6-10

Marcus Mariota

Titans

No. 2

Zach Mettenberger Week 1 (W, 42-14)

3-13

2014

QBTeamDraftedReplacedFirst StartTeam Finish

Blake Bortles

Jaguars

No. 3

Chad Henne Week 4 (L, 33-14)

3-13

Johnny Manziel

Browns

No. 22

Brian Hoyer Week 15 (L, 30-0)

7-9

Teddy BridgewaterVikingsNo. 32Matt CasselWeek 4 (W, 41-28)
7-9

2013

QBTeamDraftedReplacedFirst StartTeam Finish

EJ Manuel

Bills

No. 16

Ryan Fitzpatrick Week 1 (L, 23-21)

6-10

2012

QBTeamDraftedReplacedFirst StartTeam Finish

Andrew Luck

Colts

No. 1

Peyton Manning Week 1 (L, 41-21)

11-5

Robert Griffin III

Washington

No. 2

Rex Grossman Week 1 (W, 40-32)

10-6

Ryan TannehillDolphinsNo. 8Chad HenneWeek 1 (L, 30-10)7-9

Brandon WeedenBrownsNo. 22Colt McCoyWeek 1 (L, 17-16)5-11

2011

QBTeamDraftedReplacedFirst StartTeam Finish

Cam Newton

Panthers

No. 1

Jimmy Clausen Week 1 (L, 28-21)

6-10

Jake Locker

Titans

No. 8

Matt Hasselbeck2012 Week 1 (L, 34-13)

6-10

Blaine GabbertJaguarsNo. 10Luke McCownWeek 2 (L, 32-3)
5-11
Christian PonderVikingsNo. 12Donovan McNabb
Week 7 (L, 33-27)3-13