The NFL is undergoing a changing of the guard in 2023, featuring teams that don't have championship pedigree in the Super Bowl era. Not exactly known as winning organizations over the last 57 years, the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns are bringing their franchises back to the glory days of the 1950s -- when they were competing for championships on a regular basis.
The Lions are 8-2 for the first time since 1962 and are 16-4 in their past 20 games -- their best 20-game stretch since 1953-1954. The Browns (7-3) are currently on three-game win streak, and a win at Denver in Week 12 would tie the franchise's longest win streak since returning to the NFL in 1999. Both teams are 7-3 or better through 10 games for the first time since 1969.
Not only are the Browns and Lions showcasing success, so are the Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) and Houston Texans (6-4) -- who are battling for first place in the AFC South this week. This is just the second Jaguars-Texans matchup with both teams above .500 (the only other one came in 2007 Week 6), snapping a streak of 32 straight meetings without both teams above .500.
The Jaguars have seven-plus wins in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2009-2010 and are seeking consecutive playoff appearances for the first time since 1996-1999. The Texans have won three straight games for the first time since 2018 (they only won three games total last season) and can become just the first team to make the playoffs with a rookie quarterback and first-year head coach since the 2008 Atlanta Falcons.
None of these four teams has ever reached the Super Bowl -- but all are currently in a playoff spot and they have a combined record of 28-12. So, which one of the four has the best chance of going to the Super Bowl for the first time? Here's how we rank them, from best chance to worst.
1. Lions (8-2)
Not only are the Lions good, they are one of the best teams in the NFL. Detroit has the second-best record in the league heading into Thanksgiving and a legitimate shot at snatching home-field advantage in the NFC. This is the Lions' best 10-game start (8-2) since 1962 -- when Don Shula was defensive coordinator. The 16-4 stretch the Lions are on is their best 20-game stretch since 1953-1954, as they have the second-best record in the league over this stretch.
Detroit has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and talented skill players across the board in David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta. Jared Goff isn't one of the game's elite quarterbacks, but he's a top-10 quarterback who has made three Pro Bowls and can run an offense.
If Detroit doesn't go to the Super Bowl, the defense could play a factor. The Lions have the worst scoring defense in the NFL since Week 7, and the fifth-highest blitz rate in that span. Detroit was first in yards after catch per reception allowed from Weeks 1-6, but 31st since (showcasing that the problems are with the back seven).
Regardless, the Lions can score points and can run the ball on anyone. The franchise has never had a 13-win season. They'll be a factor come January.
2. Jaguars (7-3)
Doug Pederson's group had a taste of success last season by rallying to win the AFC South and a thrilling 27-point comeback victory in the wild-card round. So how far can Jacksonville go in 2023?
The AFC South is significantly better with the emergence of the Texans as a division contender and the Indianapolis Colts improving in Shane Steichen's first year. While the schedule is tougher, the Jaguars are better too.
Trevor Lawrence has played well in the Jaguars' 13-4 stretch, throwing for 4,161 yards with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions in that span. The Jaguars are learning to win away from home, winning all five games on the road (2-0 in London) and eight straight overall. Lawrence is boasting career highs in completion rate and yards per attempt, but also has better skill-position players in Travis Etienne and Calvin Ridley as his biggest playmakers. The Jaguars have an opportunistic defense that leads the NFL with 20 takeaways.
The AFC is there for the taking, even if the talent pool is deep with the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins leading the way. If Jacksonville doesn't go to the Super Bowl, the third-down offense (35%, 24th in NFL) and red zone offense (46%, 28th in NFL) will play a role.
3. Texans (6-4)
There's plenty to be excited about in Houston. The Texans have a franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who is top-five in NFL in pass yards (2,962), yards per attempt (8.3) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (17-5) this season. Stroud has 1,162 passing yards in his last three games -- the most in a three-game stretch by any rookie in league history. The Texans are 6-2 in their last eight games because of Stroud.
In addition to Stroud, DeMeco Ryans has chanced the culture in Houston. The Texans already have more wins than each of the previous three seasons and have a significantly improved defense as a result. Houston was 31st in total defense from 2020-2022 and is now 14th, and improved from the worst rush defense over the last three seasons to eighth.
The Texans also know how to beat winning teams, as they are 3-0 against teams that currently have winning records. While the Texans may not be Super Bowl contenders yet, Houston has the look of a winner thanks to Ryans and Stroud.
Sunday's game against the Jaguars could be massive for their chances at competing with the AFC's best.
4. Browns (7-3)
Don't sleep on the Browns and their historic defense. Their 243.3 yards allowed per game is the fifth fewest by any team since 2000, while ranking first in points (1.24) and yards (18.8) per possession. Cleveland's defense is elite, and truly Super Bowl caliber.
Then's there's the other side of the ball, specifically at quarterback. The three Browns quarterbacks have combined for eight passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions this season, the worst touchdown-to-interception ratio by a team with seven-plus wins through 10 games since the 1996 Bills.
The Browns are last in the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating (they've started three different quarterbacks and Deshaun Watson is out for the year), yet are 7-3 thanks to their defense. This is the second-best record since 1970 by any team with the worst passer rating in the NFL through Week 11 (the 2015 Broncos were 8-2, and that team went on to win the Super Bowl).
Cleveland is starting its third quarterback in Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who's in his rookie season, while also having lost Nick Chubb for the season. The Browns are asking Thompson-Robinson to be a game manager while riding the defense to victory.
The Browns are battle tested with four game-winning field goals in the final two minutes, but can it last in a brutal AFC North with a backup quarterback? The task of going to a Super Bowl will be difficult, but the playoffs are within reach.
