Running backs are the talk of the NFL ahead of 2023 training camp, not because of their value but apparent lack thereof. Look no further than some of 2022's top ball-carriers: Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley are threatening to sit out games after failing to secure long-term commitments from their respective teams, while Dalvin Cook is waiting on a free-agent deal coming off four straight 1,100-yard seasons with the Vikings.
It's always possible someone will reverse the trend and reset the RB market, commanding something akin to Christian McCaffrey's league-high $16 million annual average. But for now, it's hard not to think even the best of the game's RBs will continue to struggle for top dollar in a league where interchangeable backfield committees are more common than ever.
With that in mind, here are five big names who could feel the effects of a lesser RB market come 2024:
If there's anyone who transcends typical RB earnings, it's King Henry, right? Wrong. Imposing and productive as he may be, Henry's average annual value ($12.5M) barely eclipses that of the franchise tag ($10.1M), and there was scuttlebutt this offseason that the Titans were open to trading the perennial Pro Bowler ahead of his contract year. Henry's numbers are undeniable -- he's racked up 6,000+ yards and 55+ TDs as the lifeblood of Tennessee's offense since 2019 -- but he'll be 30 next year and likely coming off another monstrous workload, which doesn't scream long-term value in today's NFL.
A year ago at this time, you could've made the case Taylor was more valuable to his team than most NFL players, coming off an All-Pro breakout in which he totaled 2,100+ scrimmage yards propelling the Colts. Now, he's looking to shake an ankle issue that slowed him in 2022, required surgery this offseason and threatens to keep Indy hesitant in negotiations ahead of a trip to 2024 free agency. Few RBs are more natural and effortless at their peak, but in an NFL where only McCaffrey currently exceeds $15M per year, Taylor might need a repeat of his best season to command that kind of investment.
Ekeler is no stranger to the diminished market. The underrated Swiss Army knife, who's given the Chargers quasi-McCaffrey production for four-plus years, spent all offseason clamoring for a raise. Due just $6.125M per year (ninth among RBs), he even went so far as to request a trade if L.A. couldn't meet his demands. And yet, in the end, Ekeler settled for just $1.75M in added incentives. Scheduled for 2024 free agency, he may well convince a contender he's worth decent money as a multipurpose weapon, but he'll also be 29 and entering his eighth season -- not necessarily ripe for a market-shifting cash-in.
He and Aaron Jones form a rock-solid tandem, but with the latter locked up through 2024, it's possible Dillon will look to explore the market -- and his own, less-crowded backfield -- as a pending 2024 free agent. Youth and unteachable size will be on his side. But will other teams be desperate to pay big bucks for an old-school back? Consider that D'Onta Foreman, a slightly smaller but similarly sized bruiser, nearly matched Dillon in rushing yards and TDs the last two seasons, only to land a one-year, $2M deal with the rebuilding Bears this offseason. Dillon's best bet might actually be sticking in Green Bay, either with or in place of Jones.
The former second-rounder has been remarkably efficient when healthy, averaging six yards per carry in a solid rookie year and 5.7 in a shortened 2022. But health has been the issue, with Dobbins missing 26 combined games the last two seasons. On top of that, some critics will suggest he was always bound to post good numbers in a run-heavy system alongside Lamar Jackson. The Ohio State product has a chance to prove he can stay on the field as Baltimore's RB1 this year, but even then, he's headed for a potentially murky 2024 free agency, where the options could force him to be someone else's low-risk, high-upside bet.
