Each week I'll try and help you navigate the waters of your survivor pool by identifying the three best bets on the board, one longshot (for high-risk players) and one game that terrifies us. Watch Thursday Night Live for the full breakdown or harass me on Twitter with questions.
Last week we eeked by using Peyton Manning and the Broncos at home (really it was more like using their defense even if we didn't know it). So we're alive and free heading into Week 2.
Capt. Hindsight: We didn't use the Chiefs so yay! That was never the plan, but what a bad beat if you had Kansas City winning, Kansas City covering (-3) or the under (42). All got ruined because Gary Kubiak couldn't control his 39-year-old game-managing quarterback.
Three Best Bets:
1. Saints vs. Buccaneers: Tampa Bay looked awful both on offense and defense in Week 1, getting carved up by Marcus Mariota and the Titans. Now they head to New Orleans for the Saints' home opener and get a fairly miffed, winless Drew Brees. The running game should find some holes and it wouldn't be stunning if the Saints were finally able to generate some pass rush against a porous Bucs offensive line. This is the pick.
2. Ravens at Raiders: Road game on the West Coast is a terrible idea for survivor purposes but this Ravens defense is flat-out legit, even if Terrell Suggs doesn't play. Derek Carr is banged up and Baltimore is coming off a tough loss. Joe Flacco gets it going with Steve Smith and Brandon Williams/Timmy Jernigan spend all day in Carr's kitchen. Ravens cruise in the Black Hole.
3. Eagles vs. Cowboys: Divisional games are scary but I expect Philly to fly at home against a shoddy Cowboys defense. Get them in a situation where they're down and have to throw and suddenly Joseph Randle and the offensive line can't control the game as much. No Dez Bryant obviously helps the Eagles here. DeMarco Murray revenge factor is HIGH on this one too.
High Risk/High Reward:
Panthers vs. Texans: Carolina won on the road to start the year against the Jaguars but hardly looked impressive. The Texans looked REAL bad against the Chiefs in Week 1 and won't have Arian Foster again. Ryan Mallett was better than Brian Hoyer (hence why he's starting) and is probably the biggest scare of anyone here. DeAndre Hopkins is headed for a breakout season that should continue, but Josh Norman's playing for money and could do some damage against 'Nuke. J.J. Watt against the Panthers offensive line is a terrifying survivor matchup.
This Game Terrifies Me:
Titans at Browns: You could get super adorable and go with the Titans now that we know Johnny Manziel is starting for Cleveland. Mariota was outstanding in Week 1 but expecting a perfect passer rating two weeks in a row is asking a lot out of a rookie quarterback. We'd probably settle for 60 percent completions and 2 touchdowns plus Bishop Sankey running well. Rookie quarterback's first start on the road is a weird place to be in survivor.
