The Denver Broncos will take on the New England Patriots at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. New England is 2-2 overall and 2-0 at home, while the Broncos are 1-3 overall and 1-1 on the road. New England is favored by nine points in the latest Patriots vs. Broncos odds from William Hill, and the over-under is set at 45. Before entering any Patriots vs. Broncos picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 10-5 roll on top-rated picks this season. The model enters Week 6 on an incredible 106-70 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
- Patriots vs. Broncos spread: Patriots -9
- Patriots vs. Broncos over-under: 45 points
- Patriots vs. Broncos money line: New England -430, Denver +330
Why the Patriots can cover
The Patriots lost to the Kansas City Chiefs two weeks ago, 26-10. Cam Newton missed the game vs. the Chiefs, but was activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list this week. He is tied for second among quarterbacks with four rushing TDs this season. Damien Harris led the team with career-high 100 rush yards in his season debut in Week 4. He had a 41-yard run and may continue to be the lead ball carrier for New England this week.
James White had 59 scrimmage yards and a team-high seven catches in Week 4. Since 2016, White leads all running backs in receiving TDs (20) and ranks second in catches (285) and receiving yards (2,444). Stephon Gilmore had his first forced fumble of the season in Week 4. He has 13 passes defensed and three INTs in his past eight games at home. The Patriots have won their least two meetings with the Broncos.
What you need to know about the Broncos
Meanwhile, Denver was able to score a win over the New York Jets two weeks ago, 37-28. Melvin Gordon rushed for two TDs and 107 yards on 23 carries. Gordon will miss this week's game because of an illness. Phillip Lindsay is expected to start in his place, and Royce Freeman may see some work as well. Lindsay has not played since the season opener because of a toe injury, but is ready to return for the game vs. New England.
Drew Lock (shoulder) has not played a full game since the season opener and is expected to play. Noah Fant (ankle) is out for Week 6. Bradley Chubb had five tackles and a season-high 2.5 sacks in Week 4, his fourth career game with two-plus sacks. Tim Patrick had six catches for a career-high 113 yards and a TD in Week 4.
How to make Patriots vs. Broncos picks
The model has simulated Patriots vs. Broncos 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Patriots vs. Broncos? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Broncos spread to jump on Sunday, all from the model that enters Week 6 of the NFL season on an incredible 106-70 roll.