The Raiders and Cowboys are the midday game during this three-contest Thanksgiving slate set up for today to kick off Week 12. Each of these teams are looking to get back on track after losing in Week 11. For Las Vegas, Derek Carr and company are riding a three-game losing skid into the holiday and are in dire need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, Dallas' high-powered offense was stagnant against the Chiefs in its loss at Arrowhead, managing just nine points in the loss. As we sit back and enjoy some turkey, both of these clubs will be looking to get right.
In this space, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this holiday matchup has on deck. We'll take a look at how the lines have shifted throughout the week leading into Thursday and naturally give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
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This line originally opened at Cowboys -7, but did jump up to -7.5 coming out of Sunday. Since then, the spread has jockeyed around, bouncing back down to -7 and up to -8 before settling at Cowboys -7.5.
The pick: Cowboys -7.5. While Dallas' struggles offensively were perplexing in Kansas City, it's nothing close to the slump the Raiders have been in. Over this three-game losing streak, they are averaging just 14.3 points per game, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the entire NFL over that stretch. When you combine that with the fact that the defense is allowing 32 points per game (second-most in the NFL) over this skid as well, it's a troubling sign for Las Vegas, especially against a hungry Dallas team that has played well at home this season.
Key trend: Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in last seven home games.
This total opened at 54.5 but has fallen quite a bit since. Coming out of Sunday's action, the total stood at 51 and fell as low as 50.5. That could, in part, be due to the Cowboys being without Amari Cooper (COVID protocols) for this matchup and possibly CeeDee Lamb, who is in concussion protocol.
The pick: Under 51. With the Cowboys offense hobbled and the Raiders unit lost since their bye, this number feels a bit high. Even as the offense has been a tad inconsistent, Dallas' defense has been a stout group that ranks fourth in the NFL in DVOA and should continue to give Las Vegas headaches. On a short week, this could also trend to a lower-scoring game.
Key trend: Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games.
Player props to consider
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: Over 49.5 (-120). With Cooper and possibly Lamb out for this game, their targets will need to go somewhere and Schultz is third on the team in targets on the season. He also has a strong matchup against the Raiders, who are allowing opposing tight ends to average over 66 receiving yards per game on roughly 10.6 yards per reception.
Josh Jacobs total receptions: Over 3.5 (+120). Jacobs has seen an uptick in his usage in the passing game as of late and is coming off a game where he saw a season-high seven targets. He's gone over this prop in three straight coming into Week 12 and five of his eight games played on the season.
Ezekiel Elliott total rushing yards: Over 64.5 (-115). The Raiders have given up 132.1 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks 29th in the NFL. Over this three-game skid, that average has worsened to a 134-yard average on the ground. That sets Elliott up nicely to go over a prop that he's already surpassed five times this season.