The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans will face off in an AFC South clash at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at NRG Stadium. Houston is 0-4 overall and 0-2 at home, while the Jaguars are 1-3 overall and 0-2 on the road. Houston is favored by five points in the latest Texans vs. Jaguars odds from William Hill, and the over-under is set at 54. Before entering any Jaguars vs. Texans picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 7-4 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 5 on an incredible 103-69 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Texans vs. Jaguars. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for Jaguars vs. Texans:
- Texans vs. Jaguars spread: Texans -5
- Texans vs. Jaguars over-under: 54 points
- Texans vs. Jaguars money line: Houston -250, Jacksonville +210
Why the Texans can cover
The Texans lost to the Minnesota Vikings this past Sunday, 31-23. Deshaun Watson passed for two TDs and 300 yards on 33 attempts. It was the first 300-plus yard effort for Watson this season. Watson passed for two TDs vs. 0 INTs for a 120.4 rating in the last meeting with Jacksonville.
Will Fuller caught six passes for one TD and 108 yards last week. He has five-plus catches in two of his last three games vs. the Jaguars. The Texans have won the last four meetings with the Jaguars and lead the all-time series, 23-13. Interim head coach Romeo Crennel is 1-1 vs. Jacksonville. He will be making his Texans coaching debut as he takes over for Bill O'Brien, who was let go this week. At age 73, Crennel will become the oldest head coach in league history.
Why the Jaguars can cover
Meanwhile, Jacksonville came up short against the Cincinnati Bengals this past Sunday, falling 33-25. D.J. Chark caught eight passes for two TDs and 95 yards. Chark will be aiming for his third game in row on the road with 80-plus receiving yards. He has 11 receiving TDs since 2019, tied for the most among AFC wide receivers.
Running back James Robinson had 107 scrimmage yards last week, becoming the seventh player with 90-plus scrimmage yards in each of his first four career games since 1970. Robinson leads all rookies in scrimmage yards (446) and is tied for the lead in TDs (three). Gardner Minshew passed for 309 yards in his last meeting with Houston.
How to make Texans vs. Jaguars picks
The model has simulated Texans vs. Jaguars 10,000 times and the results are in. It leaning under on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Jaguars vs. Texans? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Jaguars spread to jump on Sunday, all from the model that enters Week 5 of the NFL season on an incredible 103-69 roll.
