The August 1 non-waiver trade deadline is just two weeks away, meaning the clock is ticking for teams to complete trades that will either help position themselves for a playoff push this year or set themselves up for a brighter future.
Last week, we looked at all 15 American League teams, examining what each of them might (and should) do between now and the trade deadline. Today, the National League!
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
For a team that's in full rebuilding mode, the Braves are highly unlikely to move any big-name veterans. That's because they've already traded away many of their shiniest assets over the past couple years, with Shelby Miller, Evan Gattis, and others bringing in big returns.
Julio Teheran would seem the most obvious choice among the players still on the major league roster, but he's also 25 years old and controllable via a bargain contract through 2020. Add Freddie Freeman to the (more or less) untouchable list, and we're down to role players as potential trade candidates.
Look for always aggressive general manager John Coppolella to shop relievers, with sinkerballer Jim Johnson and young, effective lefty Ian Krol both offering decent bait for B-level prospects.
Miami Marlins
The Fish are right in the middle of the NL wild-card race, and the starting pitching rumors have been out there for a while, so we might be talking more about what kind of deal they'll make, as opposed to whether they'll make one at all.
The bargain aisle includes pitchers like Jeremy Hellickson, an innings eater having the best season of a mostly unremarkable career who's also making $7 million this season and can test free agency at season's end, thus making him an inexpensive trade target. The Marlins could also target one of Pittsburgh's surplus starters (Jon Niese or Jeff Locke) or one of the Twins' high-priced mediocrities (Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana) if they want to go cheap.
Acquiring a more coveted starter like one of the Rays' 20-somethings (Matt Moore, Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi) or Rich Hill (if he's healthy) might be tricky, given how motivated teams higher up in the standings (Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, etc.) might be to make a splash.
New York Mets
The Mets are in a weird spot. Their offense has struggled to score runs, but much of that looks like a statistical fluke, with the team sitting last in the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position. The supposed strength of the team has taken multiple hits, with Matt Harvey out for the year, and health questions surrounding Steven Matz and maybe even Noah Syndergaard.
Some of the answers to the team's erratic play the past few weeks might come down to players already on the roster coming through. If Michael Conforto can return from the minors, hit the way people hoped coming into this season, and also play a passable center field, that would give the club a big lift. The same goes for Travis d'Arnaud hitting up to his potential and also staying healthy; Jose Reyes being a capable option at third base for the rest of the season; and Zack Wheeler returning from Tommy John surgery to give the Mets some quality innings.
With the farm system thinner it was a year ago after top prospects like Michael Fulmer were shipped to other clubs, the best course of action might be to root for the players they already have to live up to expectations.
Philadelphia Phillies
Like the Braves, the Phillies have already sold off many of their most tradeable assets over the past year. Of the possible trade chits left, Hellickson seems like a mortal lock to go elsewhere, unless the offers are so underwhelming that the Phillies decide to keep him as a way to soak up innings and protect their younger arms.
After that, you've got Peter Bourjos, the excellent fly-chaser who's having an unusually good year at the plate; Jeanmar Gomez, the stopgap closer who's done a surprisingly good job and could profile as a capable setup man for a contender; and David Hernandez, the journeyman right-hander who's been cuffed around this season but also owns one of the highest strikeout rates in the league, with 55 punchouts in 44 innings.
Washington Nationals
Much of the buzz in D.C. revolves around the Nats' quest for bullpen reinforcements, specifically a wipeout lefty. With Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller on the market, there are some sexy hypotheticals in play. Still, the Nationals boast one of baseball's most productive pens, making another big arm a bit of a luxury item.
The club's biggest weakness is center field, a Ben Revere-led position that has yielded an awful cumulative line of .221/.274/.337. The Rockies' Charlie Blackmon has seen his name floated in multiple trade scenarios. Even adjusting for a post-Coors Field existence, Blackmon would likely offer a substantial offensive upgrade, he's controllable through 2018, and last summer's trade of Troy Tulowitzki showed that Colorado GM Jeff Bridich isn't afraid to trade popular veterans if the price is right.
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
The great Yankees-Cubs slow dance continues, at least in the rumor mill. The Cubbies are reportedly interested in Miller and Chapman, since they lack a shutdown southpaw out of the pen. The Yankees have reportedly said, "Sure, just send us Kyle Schwarber."
This is, of course, lunacy: Chapman is a free agent at the end of this season, and even with Miller signed through 2018, there's no universe in which five years of a young power hitter like Schwarber with the potential for 30 homers and 100 walks is worth two-plus seasons of a relief pitcher -- even when it's a really great relief pitcher.
Like the Mets, the Cubs can expect in-house reinforcements too: Dexter Fowler could rejoin the team by this weekend, and fellow DL'd outfielder Jorge Soler could be back within the week as well.
Cincinnati Reds
They've already shown they're willing to go as young as possible, trading away stars like Johnny Cueto and even breaking an all-time record for most consecutive games started by rookie pitchers last year. So don't expect a wallflower approach at this year's deadline.
Jay Bruce is the most obvious candidate to be playing somewhere else by August 1. He's signed through the end of this season with a $13 million club option in 2017, making him an affordable commodity in today's market as a potential 30-homer, .500-plus slugging guy with a good track record for health and a clunky glove.
Shortstop Zack Cozart is having a career year, plays a position at which offense remains relatively scarce, and can be kept through the end of next season too.
Milwaukee Brewers
No team stands poised to make a bigger impact at the Brewers. Jonathan Lucroy would be a huge get for a variety of catcher-needy teams, especially the Indians and Rangers. Almost every contender could use relief help, with makes Milwaukee's one-two punch of Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith highly attractive.
The wild card here is Ryan Braun. At age 32 and well removed from his pre-PED suspension prime in 2011-12, he's not quite the superstar he used to be. Still, Braun remains one of the better-hitting corner outfielders in the game. He's owed nearly $85 million through the end of his contract (or $96 million if his employer picks up his 2021 option), and nagging health issues aren't likely to get better with age. So the question becomes whether a contending team with payroll room to burn might take the plunge, an idea made more palatable by a recent industry-wide climb in salaries that makes Braun's deal look manageable by comparison.
Given the high number of potential buyers out there and how rare it is to find a bat of Braun's caliber, if the Brewers were to eat some of his remaining contract, they could snag a hefty return.
Pittsburgh Pirates
And here's the team that might be in the weirdest spot. Based on year-to-date performance, you could argue that the Pirates' greatest need is starting pitching, with Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, Jon Niese, and Juan Nicasio all stinking up the joint this year. The good news is the Pirates have potential in-house solutions to the problem, with rookie Jameson Taillon back off the DL and ready to pitch, fellow rookies Tyler Glasnow and Chad Kuhl waiting in the wings, and Nicasio and Niese already dispatched to the bullpen.
If anything, the Buccos could be sellers, with Niese and Locke regarded as surplus pitchers, closer Mark Melancon two-and-a-half months from free agency, and Pittsburgh nine games out of first in the NL Central while trailing four other non-first-place clubs in the race for the NL's two wild-card spots. Then again, an optimistic would note that the Pirates sit just three games back of that second wild-card berth, and that all of the teams they're chasing have problems of their own.
In short, the Pirates could be one of those teams that waits until the last possible minute before making a decisive move one way or the other.
St. Louis Cardinals
We haven't seen the real Cardinals yet, not with a pitching staff that's done a flukishly awful job of avoiding big innings, an occurrence that's likely more due to bad luck than lack of skill, suggesting a bounceback could be coming. That and a miserable 7-16 record in one-run games have relegated a team with a strong starting rotation and plenty of young position player talent to middle-of-the-pack status in the National League.
Look for the Cards to try and address the latter problem by fortifying a bullpen that's been crushed by a bunch of lousy earlier-season results from erstwhile closer Trevor Rosenthal. Targeting relievers rather than top-of-the-rotation starters or everyday players would enable the Cards to avoid trading away elite prospects while still giving the club a lift that could help propel them to a sixth straight playoff berth.
NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Years from now, we might look back at the Diamondbacks' winter of 2015-16 as one of the worst Hot Stove seasons any team has ever had. The Shelby Miller trade in particular has been a raging disaster, with Miller racking up a 7.14 ERA (by far the worst in the majors for anyone with as many starts), then getting sent down to Triple-A.
A subtler but still pernicious problem has been the Diamondbacks' outfield defense, which fell apart after Ender Inciarte got tossed into the Miller deal. Inciarte has struggled with injuries and punchless offense this year, but relying on Yasmany Tomas to be a competent everyday corner outfielder has failed badly, and the team's run prevention has struggled as a result.
With Arizona out of any and all playoff races, look for Tony La Russa, Dave Stewart, and the rest of the brain trust to go with half-measures, making another reliever or two (Tyler Clippard?) available after flipping closer Brad Ziegler to Boston, but otherwise banking on a deeply flawed team with a badly diminished farm system to somehow find a way to contend in 2017.
Colorado Rockies
If Tulo can be dealt, anyone can. That makes Carlos Gonzalez potentially the best and most interesting trade target in the league. The 30-year-old outfielder is batting .318/.367/.548, and is on pace to smash 35 homers, numbers that look pretty damn good even after adjusting for Coors Field. He's owed about $28 million through the end of 2017, making him a highly affordable option who won't shackle a team's payroll with his decline years too.
If Jeff Bridich opts to shoot the moon, shipping out Gonzalez, Blackmon, Jake McGee, and Jorge de la Rosa for dynamic younger talent could make a team that already owns one of the best left sides of the infield in the majors and a promising young rotation into a potentially dangerous contender in the years ahead.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw suffered a setback after Saturday's simulated game, leaving his return date, and the Dodgers season, in doubt. Brandon McCarthy has been a savior since returning from Tommy John surgery on July 3, allowing just three runs on eight hits in 16 innings, while whiffing 22 batters. But injuries to other starters (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Alex Wood, Brett Anderson) along with Kershaw have made the rotation dicey, even with the recent acquisition of Bud Norris.
The Dodgers are reportedly talking to the Rays about a bunch of their players, Tampa Bay has more young pitching than any other team, and Andrew Friedman obviously knows the Rays' players well from his days running the show in Tampa Bay.
Still, going without the best pitcher on the planet indefinitely makes a run at the front-running Giants unlikely, and even a wild-card berth could be tough amid a crowded field of contenders, all of which have healthier rotations than the Dodgers do.
San Diego Padres
You could argue it was a year too late, given the opportunity A.J. Preller had to trade multiple Padres at last year's deadline. The good news is that he and the rest of the baseball ops crew recognized this wasn't a team with enough talent to be a consistent winner. That's resulted in a flurry of trades dating back to the spring, with Craig Kimbrel's move to Boston setting the stage for productive deals involving James Shields, Fernando Rodney, and especially last week's Drew Pomeranz-for-Anderson Espinoza swap.
With Matt Kemp unlikely to fetch much interest, that leaves Melvin Upton Jr. and Andrew Cashner as the team's best bets to deliver real value in return. Upton in particular could be a fascinating case. Widely regarded as one of baseball's biggest albatrosses for the first three seasons of his five-year, $75 million deal, he suddenly doesn't look so bad with about $24 million left to be paid, on pace for 30 homers and nearly 40 steals (albeit with a weak .310 OBP) this year, and one of the linchpins of an offense that shockingly leads MLB in runs scored since June 1.
San Francisco Giants
For a team that for years prided itself on late-inning excellence and currently owns the best record in the National League, the Giants have had a fair number of problems late in games in 2016. A return to health for Sergio Romo could help the pen, but you'd have to figure we see a deal for an impact reliever anyway, be it a top closer or someone to fortify the setup corps.
In fact, the Giants have an almost silly number of important players on the DL for a team that's dominating so thoroughly, with Matt Duffy, Hunter Pence, and Joe Panik all on the shelf but likely to return in the next week or two.
One player who might not be able to return healthy and productive: scuffling veteran Matt Cain. That could make a deal for a mid-rotation starter to complement Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto (and protect against more Jeff Samardzija meltdowns) a worthwhile endeavor too.
