More Week 16: Waiver Wire — Streaming Options — Rankings — Start 'Em and Sit 'Em — Cheat Sheet
The Lineup Cheat Sheet combines Fantasy analysis and game-flow predictions with a confidence scale to give you a definitive answer on who to start in your leagues.
The higher the number next to a player's name, the more confident you should be to start him. If a player isn't listed, don't start him.
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If you're still unsure, just send a note on Twitter (@daverichard) and I'll give it a look, time permitting.
Colts at Ravens
Playoff implications: Ravens need a win to keep wild-card berth hopes alive. Colts are eliminated.
| Colts | | Ravens | |
| Jacoby Brissett | (2.9) | Joe Flacco | (7.2) |
| Frank Gore | (4.6) | Alex Collins | (7.8) |
| T.Y. Hilton | (4.7) | Javorius Allen | (4.9) |
| Jack Doyle | (5.0) | Danny Woodhead | (3.4) |
| Colts DST | (3.2) | Mike Wallace | (7.0) |
| | | Chris Moore | (4.8) |
| | | Benjamin Watson | (6.0) |
| | | Ravens DST | (9.4) |
Start Him
Flacco gets the green light for the second week in a row. He's dazzled with 20-plus Fantasy points in each of his past three and has routinely moved the Ravens offense inside the red zone. Indianapolis' defense is on its last legs, gashed last week by ... wait a minute, let me make sure this is right ... Brock Osweiler. Yep, that happened. Two of the past three quarterbacks to face the Colts have posted 28-plus Fantasy points, and the one opponent that didn't was Buffalo when it was without Tyrod Taylor and playing in a blizzard.
Start Him
Watson became an interesting sleeper when Ravens play-caller Marty Mornhinweg basically admitted last week that he needed to be more involved in the offense. Having a great matchup against the Browns sure didn't hurt. Guess what? He has another nice matchup this week. You'd like to see more than three or four catches per game, which is what Watson's delivered in three of his last four, but the touchdowns are what matters, and he has a chance to score another one this Saturday.
Vikings at Packers
Playoff implications: The Vikings need to win to keep chasing the No. 1 seed. Packers are eliminated.
| Vikings | | Packers | |
| Case Keenum | (7.4) | Brett Hundley | (3.3) |
| Latavius Murray | (8.0) | Jamaal Williams | (6.3) |
| Jerick McKinnon | (6.6) | Aaron Jones | (3.8) |
| Adam Thielen | (9.0) | Randall Cobb | (5.0) |
| Stefon Diggs | (6.4) | Jordy Nelson | (4.3) |
| Kyle Rudolph | (7.4) | Packers DST | (4.6) |
| Vikings DST | (9.0) | | |
Risky Starter
Week 15 broke a three-game streak of massive Fantasy numbers from Williams, who posted 18-plus per game without Aaron Rodgers. Whether Rodgers plays or not, Williams will have a tough matchup against a Vikings run defense that's given up three short-yardage touchdowns in its past two games to backs but just 3.6 yards per carry on the season. The larger issue for Williams is Aaron Jones' re-emergence -- he played zero, two and 10 snaps over Williams' three-game breakout, and 26 snaps last week. He's expected to keep taking work away from Williams, further lowering the big guy's potential.
Lions at Bengals
Playoff implications: Lions need a win to keep wild-card berth hopes alive. Bengals are eliminated.
| Lions | | Bengals | |
| Matthew Stafford | (7.3) | Andy Dalton | (6.4) |
| Theo Riddick | (5.2) | Joe Mixon | (7.05) |
| Ameer Abdullah | (3.9) | Giovani Bernard | (3.25) |
| Marvin Jones | (8.4) | A.J. Green | (9.2) |
| Golden Tate | (5.9) | Brandon LaFell | (3.9) |
| Kenny Golladay | (2.9) | Tyler Kroft | (5.5) |
| Eric Ebron | (7.0) | Bengals DST | (6.4) |
| Lions DST | (6.6) | | |
Start Him
It feels a little icky to suggest Ebron as a starter, but it sure looks like the Lions are turning to him with their run game incapacitated. In his past two games he's caught 15 of 18 targets for 127 yards and a score, notching nine Fantasy points in each (14 or more in PPR). Not only does it help that the Lions run game remains a mess, but the Bengals gave up touchdowns to tight ends in each of their last two games.
Dolphins at Chiefs
Playoff implications: Chiefs win the AFC West with a win. Dolphins are clinging to wild-card hopes.
| Dolphins | | Chiefs | |
| Jay Cutler | (4.5) | Alex Smith | (7.8) |
| Kenyan Drake | (8.6) | Kareem Hunt | (9.4) |
| Jarvis Landry | (7.2) | Charcandrick West | (3.3) |
| DeVante Parker | (5.8) | Tyreek Hill | (8.6) |
| Kenny Stills | (3.6) | Travis Kelce | (8.8) |
| Dolphins DST | (3.6) | Chiefs DST | (9.3) |
Start Him
Two weeks ago the Dolphins thoroughly confused Tom Brady. Last week they allowed a big game to Tyrod Taylor. They've allowed 23-plus Fantasy points to four of the past six quarterbacks they've faced, three of which were on the road, which is where they'll be for the second straight week. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will play their third straight at home and moved the ball with ease in their past two. With a division title on the line, Smith is easy to trust, especially since he's hit 22 Fantasy points in two of his last three and really should have had that third biggie versus Oakland a couple of weeks back.
Bills at Patriots
Playoff implications: Patriots need to win to keep pace for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Bills need a win to keep pace for a wild-card berth.
| Bills | | Patriots | |
| Tyrod Taylor | (5.6) | Tom Brady | (8.0) |
| LeSean McCoy | (8.9) | Dion Lewis | (8.4) |
| Kelvin Benjamin | (5.3) | Mike Gillislee | (3.4) |
| Deonte Thompson | (3.4) | Brandin Cooks | (8.5) |
| Charles Clay | (5.4) | Danny Amendola | (4.2) |
| Bills DST | (3.8) | Rob Gronkowski | (9.0) |
| | | Patriots DST | (6.9) |
Browns at Bears
Playoff implications: LOL.
| Browns | | Bears | |
| DeShone Kizer | (5.0) | Mitchell Trubisky | (3.8) |
| Duke Johnson | (6.4) | Jordan Howard | (8.1) |
| Isaiah Crowell | (6.1) | Tarik Cohen | (4.4) |
| Josh Gordon | (7.9) | Kendall Wright | (6.1) |
| Corey Coleman | (5.5) | Bears DST | (7.4) |
| David Njoku | (4.2) | | |
| Browns DST | (5.4) | | |
Sneaky Sleeper
The Bears have gotten Wright way more involved in the offense over the past two weeks, turning in a 71 percent completion rate and an 11.1 yard average. Purely a volume receiver, Wright will take on backup cornerbacks forced into starting roles due to injuries on the Browns. He might grind his way to 90 yards on at least seven grabs, provided the Bears don't suddenly find their previously inconsistent run game.
Buccaneers at Panthers
Playoff implications: Panthers clinch at least a wild-card berth with a win or tie. Buccaneers are eliminated.
| Buccaneers | | Panthers | |
| Jameis Winston | (6.9) | Cam Newton | (8.9) |
| Peyton Barber | (4.2) | Jonathan Stewart | (7.5) |
| Mike Evans | (9.1) | Christian McCaffrey | (7.1) |
| Adam Humphries | (4.6) | Devin Funchess | (8.1) |
| Cameron Brate | (6.5) | Damiere Byrd | (3.8) |
| Buccaneers DST | (3.4) | Greg Olsen | (8.5) |
| | | Panthers DST | (7.1) |
Start Him
Winston's track record against the Panthers isn't good, but that's the only negative there is here. Carolina's allowed multiple passing touchdowns to five of the last six quarterbacks it has faced, and Winston has hit at least 18 Fantasy points in three games since coming back from injury. Tampa Bay's run game has evaporated, forcing Winston to throw plenty. Even with a depleted receiving corps, this should lead to more quality numbers from Winston.
Falcons at Saints
Playoff implications: Both teams clinch at least a wild-card berth with a win.
| Falcons | | Saints | |
| Matt Ryan | (6.6) | Drew Brees | (7.5) |
| Devonta Freeman | (9.2) | Mark Ingram | (9.3) |
| Tevin Coleman | (5.9) | Alvin Kamara | (9.1) |
| Julio Jones | (7.8) | Michael Thomas | (9.4) |
| Mohamed Sanu | (6.8) | Saints DST | (7.5) |
| Falcons DST | (5.2) | | |
Sneaky Sleeper
Anytime the Falcons encounter a game where they'll have to throw, Sanu is a consideration. It's an extra perk that Sanu's slot role puts him away from the Saints' best cornerbacks. All of this worked out just fine two weeks ago when he caught six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. Sanu has also scored in two straight against New Orleans and should see a slightly better matchup without safety Kenny Vaccaro playing for the Saints.
Sit Him
In games both have played in, Devonta Freeman effectively has a two-to-one edge on Coleman in snaps, touches, red-zone work ... everything except playing time inside the 5. There, Freeman has a whopping edge in snaps inside the 5 -- 22 to 5. This shouldn't surprise you since six of Freeman's seven scores have come from close range while Coleman has four (one reception) in games they've shared. Consider this the tiebreaker for not only which Falcons running back to trust but also which running back will play deep more often in Saints territory this week. Coleman has averaged 9.9 touches per game with Freeman, making him a touchdown or bust option this week. New Orleans has allowed four rushing touchdowns and three receiving scores to running backs over its last five -- five from inside the 5.
Broncos at Redskins
Playoff implications: Sorry, no.
| Broncos | | Redskins | |
| Brock Osweiler | (4.2) | Kirk Cousins | (6.3) |
| C.J. Anderson | (6.9) | Kapri Bibbs | (5.25) |
| Demaryius Thomas | (7.3) | Jamison Crowder | (5.1) |
| Cody Latimer | (4.5) | Josh Doctson | (2.5) |
| Broncos DST | (8.5) | Vernon Davis | (4.4) |
| | | Redskins DST | (5.0) |
Start Him
You have to love the touches Anderson has in his past three games (at least 19 touches in each), and you especially have to love his rushing average in those games (4.1 yards). Expect Anderson to dominate handoffs with the Broncos' passing game up in the air. In the last three weeks Washington has allowed 4.2 yards per carry to rushers with three scores, so it seems like a pretty good set-up for Anderson, particularly if run-stuffer Zach Brown is inactive again.
Sit Him
Crowder's been a primary target for Kirk Cousins for several weeks, but his target share has dipped over his past three games, falling to seven or fewer per game. It's made Crowder a touchdown-or-bust receiver, and it figures to be even more challenging this week with cornerback Chris Harris expected to stick to Crowder's hip in the slot. Harris has allowed just 52.1 percent of the passes thrown at him to get completed with two touchdowns in 14 games. Not good. Crowder's no better than a low-end flex in PPR and an out-and-out sit in standard formats.
PPR Sleeper
If Bibbs is a one-man show for the Redskins, he'll have a shot at around 13 carries and five catches against a Denver run defense that has been great on the ground but among the most giving to pass-catching rushers. Bibbs sports a career 4.4 rushing average and has two career receiving scores on just six career catches. The target share for Washington running backs on the year is 20.4 percent, so if Cousins tries the 33 passes per game he's averaged this season, about seven should head to Bibbs. Better than your typical desperation running back in PPR, Bibbs should be able to total 70 yards with roughly five catches, albeit with a below-average chance to score a touchdown (Cousins could be the Redskins' best goal-line option). If you need a back in PPR, he's out there.
Rams at Titans
Playoff implications: Rams clinch the NFC West with a win or tie. Titans clinch at least a wild-card berth with a win and losses by the Ravens and Bills.
| Rams | | Titans | |
| Jared Goff | (6.7) | Marcus Mariota | (5.8) |
| Todd Gurley | (9.5) | Derrick Henry | (6.0) |
| Robert Woods | (7.1) | DeMarco Murray | (5.6) |
| Cooper Kupp | (5.6) | Rishard Matthews | (6.5) |
| Sammy Watkins | (5.2) | Delanie Walker | (8.6) |
| Rams DST | (7.2) | Titans DST | (4.4) |
Sit Him
Goff threw two touchdowns last week and didn't even get 15 Fantasy points. That's hard to do! You'd think he'll come out firing against the Titans but they've held five of the past seven quarterbacks they've faced to 18 or fewer Fantasy points. That does include three guys who hit 18 on the nose. That's the number Goff's either hit or fell short of in three straight. With L.A. seemingly focused on grinding down rivals with the run and this matchup looking like anything but a shootout, Goff isn't worth taking a chance on. It's also the Rams' second straight game on the road.
Don't Add Him
Sam Ficken
Ficken will replace Greg Zuerlein as the Rams' placekicker. At Penn State he made 72 percent of his field goal tries but hit 83 percent as a senior. Through two preseasons he made 8 of 9 extra points and 5 of 6 field goals -- all five hits were from 45 yards or closer, his whiff from 56 yards. L.A. has attempted 2.9 field goals per game and the Titans have seen about the same average against them this season. Will the Rams let Ficken even try the long field goals that they wouldn't think twice about with Zuerlein? You're better off going with Phil Dawson or Robbie Gould, both of whom have been lights out in three of their last four.
Risky Starter
You might not think of Trumaine Johnson as a shut-down cornerback, and you might not even know who he is. But the Rams have been leaning on Johnson to take away No. 1 receivers this season and he's come through with some outstanding numbers -- one touchdown and a 56.6 completion percentage allowed over 83 targets against. Matthews figures to line up frequently against Johnson and thus be challenged to have another big game like he had last week in a far more favorable matchup. After being so consistent for much of last year, Matthews has been anything but consistent this year. Expect a let-down after a big Week 15.
Chargers at Jets
Playoff implications: Chargers cling to playoff hopes with a win. Jets are eliminated.
| Chargers | | Jets | |
| Philip Rivers | (6.8) | Bryce Petty | (3.0) |
| Melvin Gordon | (8.8) | Bilal Powell | (6.2) |
| Keenan Allen | (9.3) | Matt Forte | (5.0) |
| Tyrell Williams | (5.7) | Elijah McGuire | (3.6) |
| Travis Benjamin | (4.4) | Robby Anderson | (6.0) |
| Mike Williams | (3.7) | Jets DST | (4.0) |
| Antonio Gates | (4.8) | | |
| Chargers DST | (8.0) | | |
Start Him
Did Rivers morph into a noodle-armed quarterback in just one game? Hard to believe. So long as he has Keenan Allen to throw to, Rivers should serve as a quality Fantasy starter. The Jets pass rush and pass defense isn't anything to write home about (four sacks, seven touchdowns allowed in their last three), plus the Chargers still have plenty of playoff motivation -- they can't be eliminated if they win. Without Hunter Henry on the field, Rivers should be expected to toss more downfield throws to Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin, helping his Fantasy potential. As for the dreaded west-to-east trip, Rivers & Co. have done it three times already this season, going 1-2, but the veteran has notched a pair of 20-plus Fantasy point games.
Jaguars at 49ers
Playoff implications: Jaguars clinch the AFC South with a win or tie or Titans loss and are still chasing a first-round bye. 49ers are eliminated.
| Jaguars | | 49ers | |
| Blake Bortles | (8.2) | Jimmy Garoppolo | (6.1) |
| Leonard Fournette | (8.2) | Carlos Hyde | (5.4) |
| T.J. Yeldon | (4.3) | Marquise Goodwin | (7.6) |
| Dede Westbrook | (6.9) | Garrett Celek | (5.9) |
| Keelan Cole | (6.3) | 49ers DST | (4.8) |
| Jaydon Mickens | (4.9) | | |
| Jaguars DST | (9.1) | | |
Start Him
Fantasy owners have reaped rewards with Goodwin because of his targets (11 per game) and catch rate (72.7 percent) in three games with Jimmy Garoppolo. That's unlikely to go away, particularly in a Week 16 matchup the 49ers will either trail or be competitive in. Goodwin also has incredible speed and quickness, traits that the Jaguars have struggled with lately. In their past three, the Jags have allowed seven deep pass plays of 25-plus yards with five for touchdowns, three allowed by shut-down cornerback Jalen Ramsey, according to Pro Football Focus. Goodwin has nine deep targets with Garoppolo, and figures to get more on Sunday, but don't overlook the usage in the short game, especially if the 49ers have to throw to put points on the board. Bank on the 49ers using Goodwin creatively in an attempt to give him another positive stat line.
Seahawks at Cowboys
Playoff implications: Both teams need a win to keep playoff hopes alive.
| Seahawks | | Cowboys | |
| Russell Wilson | (8.8) | Dak Prescott | (7.0) |
| Mike Davis | (4.8) | Ezekiel Elliott | (9.7) |
| Doug Baldwin | (8.7) | Dez Bryant | (7.4) |
| Paul Richardson | (3.2) | Jason Witten | (5.8) |
| Tyler Lockett | (2.7) | Cowboys DST | (4.2) |
| Jimmy Graham | (7.1) | | |
| Seahawks DST | (5.7) | | |
Start Him
You have to laugh at Graham's stats the past two weeks just to keep from crying. There's one big reason for them -- the Seahawks didn't run a single offensive snap in the red zone last week and had just three red-zone snaps the week before, limiting Graham's scoring opportunities. Expect that to change as Dallas' opponents have had 16 red-zone snaps against them the past two games and Seattle's squad should still be able to move the chains. Graham should get going and is still a very startable Fantasy tight end.
Giants at Cardinals
Playoff implications: Both teams are coming up empty.
| Giants | | Cardinals | |
| Eli Manning | (3.7) | Drew Stanton | (4.8) |
| Wayne Gallman | (5.8) | Elijhaa Penny | (5.3) |
| Orleans Darkwa | (4.5) | D.J. Foster | (4.7) |
| Sterling Shepard | (6.6) | Larry Fitzgerald | (8.2) |
| Roger Lewis | (3.0) | J.J. Nelson | (3.5) |
| Evan Engram | (7.2) | Ricky Seals-Jones | (4.0) |
| Giants DST | (5.9) | Cardinals DST | (8.2) |
Risky Starter
It's gonna be hard to get away from using Shepard after he exploded for big numbers last week, especially after fellow slot receiver Jamison Crowder scored on the Cardinals last week. But Crowder's score was just the third this year by a regular slot receiver against Arizona. And if you're looking for 100 yards, keep it moving -- no receiver, slot or otherwise, has hit the century mark on the Cardinals since Golden Tate landed 107 yards on 10 catches in Week 1. Shepard definitely has the potential to come up with a ton of catches, and thus a ton of yards, but that's happened just three times in 10 games this season. He's a No. 2 receiver in PPR leagues but expectations should be tempered if catches don't count.
Steelers at Texans
Playoff implications: Steelers need a win to keep pace for a first-round bye. Texans are eliminated.
| Steelers | | Texans | |
| Ben Roethlisberger | (7.1) | T.J. Yates | (3.1) |
| Le'Veon Bell | (9.6) | Lamar Miller | (7.0) |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | (7.7) | DeAndre Hopkins | (9.5) |
| Martavis Bryant | (6.7) | Will Fuller | (5.4) |
| Eli Rogers | (4.1) | Texans DST | (3.0) |
| Jesse James | (6.1) | | |
| Steelers DST | (6.8) | | |
Risky Starter
It seems strange that in a game in which Antonio Brown was injured, Bryant played just 36 snaps. He didn't play immediately after Brown got hurt and he wasn't on the field for the Steelers' final three plays deep in Patriots territory. Obviously that plan could change this week, especially against a Texans pass defense that has struggled with speedy receivers. But there's no denying Bryant's boom-or-bust nature in 2017, scoring 10-plus Fantasy points three times and six or fewer Fantasy points nine times (with no results in-between). It's feast or famine. In a week where the Steelers should be able to run their way to an easy victory, there's risk in going with Bryant. JuJu Smith-Schuster, who had more targets than any Steeler after Brown's injury last week, seems safer.
Raiders at Eagles
Playoff implications: Eagles can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win or with a Vikings loss. Raiders are eliminated.
| Raiders | | Eagles | |
| Derek Carr | (5.9) | Nick Foles | (7.9) |
| Marshawn Lynch | (5.5) | Jay Ajayi | (6.5) |
| Michael Crabtree | (7.5) | LeGarrette Blount | (3.7) |
| Amari Cooper | (5.25) | Corey Clement | (3.5) |
| Seth Roberts | (4.0) | Alshon Jeffery | (8.3) |
| Jared Cook | (4.6) | Nelson Agholor | (6.2) |
| Raiders DST | (2.8) | Zach Ertz | (8.9) |
| | | Eagles DST | (8.4) |
Start Him
Last week should leave no doubt -- the Eagles aren't changing who they are with Foles under center. Carson Wentz averaged 33.8 passes per game, Foles tried 38 last week, albeit in a game the Eagles needed to score a bunch of points. But when Philly got into the red zone, they kept throwing and they kept scoring. Oakland's defense has been a curious case -- they've held four straight quarterbacks to under 20 Fantasy points with as many interceptions as total scores by signal callers (four).
The hunch is we'll see an end to the trend here as the Raiders fly across the country to play in Philly on Christmas night, and it's fairly likely the Eagles will be feisty since they can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win (presuming the Vikings win on Sunday). Even if Foles plays three quarters, he should be solid for Fantasy owners.
