The Pac-12 made big news in college football last month, when it announced a change to its format for deciding who reaches the league title game. Instead of automatically pitting its two division winners against each other, the conference will instead send the two teams with the highest league winning percentage to the Pac-12 title game.
It's a significant move that was made quickly after a NCAA Division I Council vote to allow leagues to decide their own criteria for who plays in conference title games. If the rule had been in place last season, it would still have been Utah playing Oregon in the title game. But if it had been in place during the 2018 season, for example, Washington and Washington State would have met in the Pac-12 Championship Game just a week after the in-state rivals from the North Division met to close the regular season in the Apple Cup.
The change adds a layer of intrigue to the Pac-12 title race entering the 2022 season. The title favorites, per odds from Caesars Sportsbook, are Utah and USC, who are both from the South. Two teams with the longest odds to win the league are also from the South, which suggests it's shaping up as a top-heavy division.
On the other hand, the Pac-12 North teams are mostly lumped together in the middle of the league's odds sheet, which means there's a chance the division could cannibalize itself into missing out on a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Between the new rule and the influx of new coaches at some of the league's top programs, the Pac-12 figures to feel a little fresher in 2022.
As the season draws closer, what are the best wagers to make in the Pac-12? Here's a look at the odds from Caesars Sportsbook along with a few recommendations to contemplate.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
USC | +200 |
Utah | +200 |
Oregon | +300 |
+750 | |
Washington | +1800 |
+2500 | |
+3500 | |
Washington State | +4000 |
+6000 | |
+7500 | |
+40000 | |
+50000 |
Best bet -- UCLA (+750): UCLA finally made significant progress in coach Chip Kelly's fourth season by finishing 8-4 (6-3 Pac-12). With quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson returning for a fifth season and running back Zach Charbonnet back after rushing for 1,137 yards, the Bruins should be able to maintain or improve offensively after last year's unit ranked 31st nationally and second in the Pac-12 in total offense. The defense is a huge question mark as journeyman NFL and college assistant Bill McGovern enters to replace Jerry Azzinaro as coordinator of an underperforming unit with some holes to fill. But +750 is a great value for an offense that could be the league's best.
Worst wager -- USC (+200): Like UCLA, USC seems likely to field one of the conference's best offensive units but has a ton of questions to answer defensively. The Trojans ranked 89th nationally in total defense last season, and it's not as if Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma teams were known for their prowess on that side of the ball. By avoiding Oregon and Washington out of the Pac-12 North, the Trojans are more likely than UCLA to reach the league title game. But are they almost four times more likely than the Bruins to win the conference, as the odds suggest? That's a stretch.
Value pick -- Washington (+1800): Among Pac-12 programs that changed coaches, Washington underwent significantly less roster churn than USC and Oregon. With Kalen DeBoer in for Jimmy Lake, the offense is guaranteed to improve significantly compared to last year's unit, which ranked 114th nationally. Even if the defense slips some in the post-Lake era, the Huskies should immediately improve on last season's 4-8 mark and reclaim a place of relevance in the conference. With South Division favorites USC and Utah both absent from the schedule, Washington has a shot to get in the league title mix during DeBoer's first season.
Long shot -- Oregon State (+3500): Oregon State broke through for its first bowl appearance since 2013 last year, as coach Jonathan Smith got things going during his fourth season on the job. The Beavers' 7-6 record arguably should have been even better when you consider the confounding juxtaposition of a win over eventual league champion Utah versus losses to Cal and Colorado in subsequent weeks. Following an offseason of upheaval at Oregon, USC and Washington, it's not ridiculous to suggest the Beavers could get in the league title mix if they can knock off the Utes for a second straight season on Oct. 1.
