There are no sure things when it comes to gambling, but if we look at the history of how teams have performed, we can see trends emerge. I've gone through college football data since the beginning of the 2008 season in search of these trends, and I've found plenty of them.
Today I share with you the things I discovered in the SEC. Now, simply following these trends will not assure you riches beyond your wildest dreams, but they will arm you with useful information to help you make more informed decisions when putting your money on the line.
All records listed below are against the spread (ATS)
| Favorite | Underdog | Home | Away | Neutral | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All games | 526-502-12 | 302-333-8 | 419-457-12 | 300-295-8 | 110-88 |
SEC play | 279-253-8 | 253-279-8 | 252-251-8 | 251-252-8 | |
Nonconference play | 247-254-4 | 49-54 | 167-206-4 | 49-43 | 81-59 |
SEC vs. Everyone
| ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | Independents & G5 | FCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
49-52 | 24-17 | 24-17 | 10-8 | 132-127-3 | 41-69-1 |
SEC team-by-team trends
| 1 |  |
| 78-60 (.565) -- It's a testament to how dominant Alabama has been that it's not only the best team in the SEC but the best team against the spread as well. As dominant as it has been, there's still one trend worth noticing. Don't bet on Alabama at home; bet it on the road. The Tide has a record of 43-26 ATS on the road or at neutral sites compared to only 35-34 at home. That includes a mark of 15-6 ATS outside Tuscaloosa in nonconference games. | |
| 2 |  |
| 65-58-1 (.528) -- The Commodores have the second-best record ATS in the SEC over the last decade, but that's not where you can make money on this team. Forget the spread. When you see Vandy playing an SEC game, take the Under. Since 2008, the Under has gone 61-43 in Vandy's conference games. | |
| 3 |  |
| 40-37 (.519) -- This is Mizzou's mark since joining the SEC in 2012. Like Alabama, betting Missouri when its on the road has been profitable. The Tigers have gone 18-12 ATS in true road games since joining the SEC. | |
| 4 |  |
| 65-61 (.516) -- The cowbells help. Since 2008 Mississippi State has gone 37-28 ATS at home. When the Bulldogs are at home against an SEC team, it's even better, as they're 26-14 ATS. When they're home favorites against an SEC team? 12-4. | |
| 5 |  |
| 64-60-5 (.516) -- South Carolina's record ATS overall is mediocre, but when the Gamecocks are underdogs they're a gold mine. The Gamecocks have gone 31-20-2 ATS as a dog since 2008. At home or a neutral site, they're 14-5-1 ATS when the other team is favored. | |
| 6 |  |
| 63-60-2 (.512) -- Unders have been good plays when it comes to the Rebels, though with one minor catch. The Under has gone 59-43-2 in Ole Miss conference games since 2008. That record improves to 32-18-2 when the Rebels are on the road in the SEC. | |
| 7 |  |
| 63-61 (.508) -- The best way to win money when it comes to betting Arkansas games is by taking the Over. It's gone 84-62-3 over the last decade when the Hogs are being called, no matter where or whom they're playing. | |
| 8 |  |
| 63-62-2 (.504) -- There are two simple rules when betting Florida: don't bet it as an underdog (13-22 ATS), and don't bet it at home (26-36-2 ATS). Instead, bet it as a favorite on the road or at a neutral site where it has gone a combined 28-11-0 ATS since 2008. | |
| 9 |  |
| 63-65-4 (.492) -- Never bet Georgia as a dog (9-14-1 ATS), but don't bet it as a big favorite either. Instead, find the happy medium. When the Dawgs are favored by fewer than 14 points (-13.5 to -0.5) they've gone 36-28-3 ATS. | |
| 10 |  |
| 62-66-1 (.484) -- It's hard to beat LSU when it's at home in Tiger Stadium at night. The Tigers have gone 45-7 straight up in those games, but fading LSU against the spread in those games has proven profitable. LSU is only 23-29 ATS in those 52 games and only 11-17 ATS against nonconference opponents. | |
| 11 |  |
| 62-68-1 (.477) -- Fade Auburn outside Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Tigers aren't great ATS at home (37-35-1), but they're far worse outside it, going 25-33 ATS. | |
| 12 |  |
| 34-43-1 (.442) -- This is TAMU's mark since joining the SEC in 2012. While the Aggies haven't performed well against the spread in the SEC outside of their first year in the conference, they've been even worse at home. The Aggies are 16-25-1 ATS at home since joining the SEC, and that includes a record of 7-16 ATS against SEC opponents. | |
| 13 |  |
| 55-67-3 (.450) -- Much like Texas A&M, you want to bet against Tennessee when it's at home. The Vols are 28-43-1 ATS at Neyland since 2008. Pay particular attention when the Vols are a home dog, as they're 5-15 ATS. | |
| 14 |  |
| 52-72 (.419) -- Kentucky hasn't been good ATS, but there are two times you want to bet against it. When its an underdog, Kentucky has gone 29-46 ATS since 2008. When it's playing in an SEC game, Big Blue Nation has gone 31-49 ATS. When it's an underdog in an SEC game? Well, bet heavy because it's 26-42 ATS in those situations. | |
