Of the pile of prospect call-ups we've seen during what may come to be known as the September surge, by far the most impressive has been one I haven't even mentioned yet.
I'm talking about Ryne Nelson, a 24-year-old Diamondbacks right-hander who just two-hit the Dodgers over six innings after carving up the Padres over seven in his debut. He has yet to allow an earned run in 13, striking out 13 and walking just two.
It's impressive, yes, but also quite unexpected given the quality of the competition and the fact he struggled so mightily in the minors this year, compiling a 5.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 at Triple-A Reno. That's one of the more hitter-friendly environments in a notably hitter-friendly league, but even so, he was (duh) facing minor-leaguers.
Still, it's hard to come away from these highlights feeling anything less than impressed.
Ryne Nelson stays spotless as a Major Leaguer, striking out six over six scoreless innings in his second start for the @Dbacks! pic.twitter.com/acPcEtCC64
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 13, 2022
That fastball packs some sizzle even apart from the velocity, and the wrist curl brings a little deception to it. If he continues to throw 67 percent of his pitches for strikes, there will be few days when he beats himself.
So why am I not recommending Nelson as a pickup in Fantasy? Look, I'm not your dad. You can do what you want. In leagues where starting pitchers are in especially high demand, it might make sense to throw caution to the wind for him. But I can't get around the fact that his next two matchups are also against the Padres and Dodgers. Having him shut those two down again, so soon, before his first real misfire in the majors, is probably too much to ask. They have a scouting report now. Advantage goes to the hitters.
It makes Nelson the latest in a string of impressive rookie hurlers who simply aren't in a position to help us yet. Hunter Brown, for as good as he's looked, is about to shift to the bullpen with Justin Verlander expected back from the IL this weekend. Bailey Falter is kind of in the same boat, looking at maybe one start (against the Braves, no less) before Zack Wheeler returns.
Their better-than-expected performances give us something to look forward to next year, but the timing isn't right for this year, not with so little calendar left.
So who should we be looking to pick up?
Lodolo's big finish continues apace with his second straight 11-strikeout effort, giving him a 2.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in his past 10 starts. He leaned into his best pitch in this one, throwing his curveball 41 percent of the time (the second-most in any start this season), and the results speak for themselves. Granted, a win would have been nice against the Pirates, but he'll go for two next week with pretty good matchups against the Red Sox and Brewers. And then he'll get the Cubs twice in an extra-long Week 26, so it's likely Lodolo is just a fixture in your lineup the rest of the way.
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Monday's start was exactly the sort I was waiting to see from Rogers -- one where he wasn't just good, but so good that it leaves no doubt he's a changed pitcher from the first four months of the season. He not only struck out nine, did but so with 18 swinging strikes, playing his changeup off his fastball much like he did during his impressive rookie season. Clearly, the month he lost to back spasms did him a world of good, giving him a chance to sort out his mechanics. He's returned with his best three starts of the season, and his final minor-league rehab start was an absolute gem as well. His next two starts are against a patchwork Nationals lineup, so plan on keeping Rogers active.
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Normally when a high-profile prospect call-up performs up to his potential right away, he's treated like a savior and hailed from sea to shining sea, so it's surprising to see Henderson's roster rate still lagging when he's done exactly that. While playing time has hindered Corbin Carroll and strikeouts Josh Jung, Henderson has started every game but one and made contact at a higher rate than expected. He has only one home run so far but plenty of extra-base hits, including a double and a triple Wednesday. In addition to shortstop, he's now eligible at third base, with second base in his sights as well. I'd be willing to start him at any of those spots.
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Fairbanks' save Tuesday gives him three of the Rays' past four and makes him the new presumptive closer in a bullpen that famously has none. A contradiction, you say? While you can't trust manager Kevin Cash with these things, he has had stretches when he's treated a particular reliever like a conventional closer, and he may be on the verge of doing that with Fairbanks. Jason Adam gives him another lockdown righty for the late innings, after all. Fairbanks has always had killer stuff but has done a better job of controlling it since returning from a strained lat in mid-July, leading to ace reliever numbers. Even if he's only good for two or three saves the rest of the way, it's probably preferable to the combustibility of, say, a Jose Leclerc.
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We've been waiting for Gonzalez's power to manifest during what's been an impressive rookie season otherwise, and it looks like it's finally happening. Four of his nine home runs have come in his past 10 games, a stretch during which he also has four doubles. His high-end exit velocities rank among the top 10 percent in the league, and because his strikeout rate is only 21 percent, it doesn't seem like batting average will be a major concern for him moving forward. Certainly in five-outfielder leagues, he's a must at this point, and it's not a bad idea to add him even in three-outfielder leagues. His matchups next week could be better, but it's hard to imagine anyone with his availability being any more appealing.
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Andrus keeps rolling merrily along with back-to-back multi-hit games. He's now batting .371 (26 for 70) with five home runs in his past 17 games and .313 since joining the White Sox in mid-August, having quickly claimed their leadoff spot. I still don't have much explanation for the 34-year-old suddenly reversing his downward trend, but with so little time left in the season, it kind of makes sense just to ride the hot hand if you're hurting at shortstop (provided Gunnar Henderson has already been scooped up). The White Sox's matchups are pretty good next week, particularly with three games against the Tigers.
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