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Drafting from No. 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
Editor's note: Our latest pick-by-pick series was done prior to the third preseason games, when season-ending knee injuries to Julian Edelman, Spencer Ware and Cameron Meredith occurred. The goal of this series is to show you positions to draft in these spots as much as the players selected, so take that into account if those injured guys are listed here.
Fantasy Football is a week-to-week game that we largely analyze on a season-long basis. That becomes very evident when you look at my first two picks from the No. 5 spot in this draft.
Odell Beckham is clearly a top three wide receiver in the NFL. He's been the consensus No. 5 pick all summer. But a leg injury in Week 2 of the preseason has sparked rumors that he may not be available for the first week or two of the regular season.
Is that enough for him to drop in the draft? Not for me, at least not until it's more than a "maybe".
T.Y. Hilton was first round pick for me before training camp, but I've slowly dropped him in the rankings as Andrew Luck has remained on the PUP list. But even if I have to deal with a couple of weeks of Scott Tolzien, I feel confident he'll give me No. 1 WR value the rest of the season.
Here's the rest of my team picking from No. 5:
- 1.5 Odell Beckham, WR, NYG
- 2.8 T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND
- 3.5 Lamar Miller, RB, HOU
- 4.8 Ty Montgomery, RB, GB
- 5.5 Willie Snead, WR, NO
- 6.8 Zach Ertz, TE, PHI
- 7.5 Frank Gore, RB, IND
- 8.8 Mike Wallace, WR, BAL
- 9.5 Cam Newton, QB, CAR
- 10.8 Jordan Matthews, WR, BUF
- 11.5 Matt Forte, RB, NYJ
- 12.8 D'Onta Foreman, RB, HOU
- 13.5 Jalen Richard, RB, OAK
- 14.8 Falcons DST
Favorite Pick: Jordan Matthews
First, let's clear up the injury news. Matthews has a chip fracture. He's already doing work on the side. Everything coming out of Buffalo has been positive. You should expect him to be ready in Week 1.
Still not convinced? Matthews is going to be a target monster in Buffalo. He has No. 2 WR upside in PPR and scored 16 TDs in his first two NFL seasons. Don't let one down season distract you from his pedigree and resume. Matthews is a good pick Round 9 or later.
Pick you may regret: T.Y. Hilton
Like I said, I'm not worried about a couple of weeks. Look at those stats from 2016. Hilton led the league in receiving yards. I can deal with a couple of bad games. But Andrew Luck is not off the PUP list yet.
If Luck starts the season on the PUP list and misses the first six games, taking Hilton in the second round could be a disaster. Tolzien cannot support a no. 1 receiver, and I question whether he can support a No. 2. I don't expect Luck to miss that much time, but at this point you have to at least recognize is as a possibility.
This player could make or break your team: Cam Newton
It's hard for any ninth-round quarterback to break your team. You can usually find that type of value on the waiver wire. But if Newton returns to prior form he could absolutely make this team.
I've laid out the case for Newton as this year's Matt Ryan in the past. He's coming off a career-low touchdown percentage, so at the very least we should expect some regression in that area. The two biggest questions are how much he'll run and how he'll utilize Christian McCaffrey.
If Newton can pick up 400 yards and six touchdowns on the ground and mesh with McCaffrey early, he has as much upside as any quarterback in Fantasy.
