In the most recent version of my 2022 running back projections, Breece Hall is the only rookie running back who projects as a Fantasy starter for the entire season. But don't take that to mean he's the only back I think will be worth starting at some point. Kenneth Walker, Dameon Pierce, James Cook, Tyler Allgeier, and Rachaad White are all in the top 48 in the projections below. None of them have the floor or upside of Hall this year (or in the future), but they could all earn starting roles towards the end of the season.
Two backs who are currently above Hall in the rankings are Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb. But the projections of both Kamara and Chubb are tentative for the time being because of potential suspensions that may or may not impact their value.
2022 Projections: QB | RB | WR | TE | Dynasty Central
For Kamara, this uncertainty traces back to Pro Bowl weekend when he was arrested in Las Vegas due to an altercation the night before the game. Early in the offseason I weighed this as if a four-to-six game suspension was most likely. But the closer we get to the start of the season without a resolution the less certain I feel about that. Kamara's next court date isn't even until Aug. 1.
For now, I'm projecting Kamara as if he'll play 17 games, which makes him a top five running back in full PPR. You shouldn't draft blindly off of projections, and I'll have him ranked closer to 12 than five when I next update my rankings because of the suspension risk. If Kamara was suspended for six games, he'd be closer to 18 than 12 in my rankings.
Chubb's uncertainty has to do with his new quarterback, Deshaun Watson. The league is reportedly meeting with Watson, and some are speculating that means there could be a suspension, or at least a decision about a suspension, on the horizon. Like with Kamara, we really have no idea.
I'm projecting Chubb and the Browns as if Watson is going to play 17 games. If Watson is suspended, it gets tricky. I would expect the offense to be worse, and score fewer touchdowns (especially if Baker Mayfield is traded) but I would also project them to go back to their run-heavy approach, which means more volume for Chubb. A six-game suspension for Watson would likely move Chub into my top 12 based on volume, but it's unlikely he'd get into the top 10 in full PPR. In non PPR, Chubb might approach the top five.
One final note, I lean on these projections for my rankings more early than late. Once you get past the top 30 or so, it's more important to think about upside than what a running back is projected for. So guys like Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison, and the rookies will rank higher than they project.
Here are my updated 2022 running back projections:
