If you've spent the past two seasons chasing Kyle Piits' upside, I am sorry. I am sure it has been frustrating. Well, I can't be sure, because I haven't been a part of the chase up to this point. But I'm ready to join, so don't give up quite yet.
In fairness to Pitts, we don't generally expect much from tight ends in their first two years in the league, and his 51.2 yards per game and 8.2 yards per target rank very well among tight ends who have not yet turned 23 years old. They're even more impressive when you consider the level of quarterback play he's dealt with.
When you contextualize Pitts' first two seasons, he has been even better. His 23.5% target per route run rate would be good for a wide receiver, or any tight end, much less a tight end in his first two years in the league. His 2.02 yards per route run as a rookie was flat-out elite. Pitts has shown that he's every bit as good as his draft capital suggests. He just needs an offense that doesn't look like it was constructed in the 1940s and a quarterback who can hit the side of the barn.
What we saw from Desmond Ridder, and Arthur Smith when Ridder was the starter, gives me hope. Ridder averaged more than five more pass attempts per game than Marcus Mariota and averaged 33 more yards per game in his final three starts. More importantly, we generally expect quarterbacks to take their biggest leap from Year 1 to Year 2, and we often see coaches extend their QBs leash when that leap happens.
Ridder does not profile as a good quarterback, but it is easier to project 500 passes with him under center than it is with Mariota. At Pitts' career rates that would look like 120 targets, which should translate to something like 68 catches for 984 yards and four touchdowns on the low side. That would be by far the best Fantasy season for Pitts, and there is considerably more upside from there. The floor isn't much lower, because if Ridder is terrible we know Taylor Heinicke is a better passer than Mariota, who Pitts dealt with last year.
The best part about all of this is that Pitts is two to three rounds cheaper than he has ever been. Buy the dip and enjoy the profit. If Pitts gets league-average quarterback play, you won't just enjoy the profit, you may just enjoy the No. 2 tight end in Fantasy.
Here are nine more breakouts you won't want to miss in 2023:
Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Your ultimate football draft guide
Dominate your Fantasy Football draft with our free printable Draft Kit, which gives you must-have top-200 rankings for PPR, half-PPR and non-PPR leagues, plus see the top ranked players at every position. Get average draft position data for every ranked player to help strategize before Draft Day, and keep track of your roster with our lineup builder for both snake and salary cap formats.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
Sorry!
There was an error processing your subscription.
Wilson is an elite talent who delivered 1,103 yards as a rookie despite atrocious quarterback play from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White. Now he's paired with Aaron Rodgers, who has raved about Wilson this summer, comparing him to Davante Adams. Adams consistently averaged 10-plus targets per game with Rodgers, if Wilson approaches that he'll be the clear WR3 in Dynasty by the end of the year. I'm thrilled to take him in Round 2.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Watson averaged 2.26 yards per route as a rookie. There are five rookies who were better by that metric from 2013-2021. Their names are Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham, Tyreek Hill, and A.J. Brown. That's the trajectory Watson finds himself on. Jordan Love is an obvious downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, but he may not be much worse than Rodgers was last year. If he's not, and Watson stays healthy, the receiver has top-12 upside in 2023.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Yes, Dotson, like Watson, has touchdown regression coming. That won't matter if he can match Terry McLaurin in target share as he did in the last five games. In those final five games, Dotson was on pace for 71 catches, 1,170 yards, and 10 touchdowns on 119 targets. The addition of Eric Bienemy gives this offense, and Dotson, even more upside.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Robinson is an elite prospect just about any way you measure it. He produced 1,894 yards and 20 TDs in his final year at Texas, he ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 215 pounds, and he was drafted eighth overall. He's way ahead of most rookies in the passing game as well. The only question is about his situation, namely how good the Falcons offense can be and how much he'll share with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson. If those things break his way, he could be RB1 overall.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Mattison takes over for Dalvin Cook, who was cut this offseason. Mattison topped 50% of the snaps three times in his first four years in the league. He topped 100 yards from scrimmage and 20 PPR Fantasy points in all three games. That is not a fair expectation in 2023, but he does have top-12 upside and he's a near guarantee as a top-20 back if he doesn't get hurt.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Like Mattison, White is taking over for a departed veteran. And like Mattison, he has a three-game sample to get you excited. From Weeks 10-13 last year, White averaged 94.4 yards from scrimmage and 16.4 PPR FPPG. With Leonard Fournette gone, White will be the feature back and should benefit if Baker Mayfield wins the job because Mayfield led the NFL in check-down rate in 2022.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Fields gave us a taste for what his breakout could look like. From Weeks 7-11 he averaged 34 FPPG despite throwing for just 154 yards per game in those contests. His explosion mostly came on the ground with 552 rushing yards in five games, though he did throw nine touchdown passes as well. Fields battled injuries and ran into some tough defenses down the stretch, but that five-week stretch was about as good as any quarterback from a Fantasy perspective. In 2023, there's hope Fields could be more consistent and do more with his arm. D.J. Moore and an improved offensive line should help. Moore is an enormous upgrade over Darnell Mooney as a true No. 1 receiver, and Mooney fits much better as a No. 2. Even their No. 3, Chase Claypool, should be better with an offseason in Chicago under his belt.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
The truth is, I think the only skill Tagovailoa needs to improve is protecting himself. He averaged 23.2 FPPG last year in his healthy games, which was better than Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. A second year in Mike McDaniel's system with arguably the best pass-catching duo in the NFL means Tagovailoa has top-three upside this season if he plays 17 games. He spent the offseason learning jiu-jitsu, and the art of the fall for just this purpose.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Freiermuth will be counting on improvement from a second-year passer, but that's the norm, not an outlier. Most breakout tight ends finish first or second on their team in targets, and Freiermuth cleared that hurdle last year, out targeting George Pickens by 14 targets despite playing one fewer game. I expect 100-plus targets from Freiermuth this year, and I expect touchdown regression for Freiermuth that gets him closer to his rookie total (seven) than two last year.
| ||||||||||||||||||||
