It has been too long since the last time I wrote a Dynasty mailbag, and for that I apologize. Generally, when I return to this space after an absence I get a question or two about how to start up a new Dynasty Fantasy Football league. These are some of my favorite questions, where I get to go in depth about my preferences in roster size, scoring systems, trade rules, and more.
Today, I don't need to write about any of those things, because this week Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier joined me on Fantasy Football Today Dynasty and broke them all down as we established (or tried to establish) the settings for our new league. You can listen to in on the Fantasy Football today podcast here. Or, you can watch the episode right now:
Now let's get to the questions:
How are we feeling about Kyle Pitts?
What's the value of Kyle Pitts? We all obviously love his profile/age...but the scheme in Atlanta and QB situation could continue to hinder him.— Tim Morrison (@TJ_TMorrison23) June 1, 2023
Is Kyle Pitts still a top 3 dynasty TE.— J Mo Money (@wolfpac_101) June 1, 2023
Two years in a row I've had Pitts in my redraft bust column. But I was always sure to mention that despite my concerns about his redraft ADP, he was still undoubtedly TE1 in Dynasty. No, I didn't just tell you that story because I was right about Pitts missing his ADP two years in a row. Well, that's not the only reason at least. The other is that he's no longer No. 1, he's not No. 2 either. But yes, he is still a top 3 Dynasty tight end, barely.
I still believe in Kyle Pitts as a future elite tight end without a doubt. But there is one scenario I could see unfolding in the next eight months that could change that. If the Falcons remain historically run-heavy relative to the league average and Drake London out-produces Pitts and the Falcons have a winning record, I am going to panic.
The worst-case scenario is that Pitts is trapped on a low-volume pass offense with mediocre QB play for more than the next year or two and that could happen if Arthur Smith has success. With the state of the NFC South, that's not inconceivable.
Pitts is TE3 for now, with similar trade value to Christian Watson, Rhamondre Stevenson and Joe Burrow (in a one-quarterback league). I still expect he'll be TE1 again someday. But I wouldn't blame Pitts' Fantasy managers for cheering against the Falcons this year.
Timing trades and Isiah Pacheco
What do we see for Pacheco going forward?— Meatball Ron (@JohnnyMcPerts) June 1, 2023
Best time to trade away certain players.— Matt Gleason (@TheMattGleason) June 1, 2023
For example, I'd be selling Pacheco, but you might want to wait until week 3 to sell him w/ his great early schedule. Same w/guys like E Moore, Toney, or Hollywood.
Guys w/ bumps in value, but still room for value to grow before selling
I combined these two questions for more reasons than just both of them mentioning Pacheco. It's because if you have Pacheco on your roster you should absolutely be thinking about when you are going to trade him. But now is probably not the best time.
The truth is if you have any Day 3 or UDFA back on your roster and that back has had recent success, you should strongly consider selling. I'll say the same if Khalil Herbert gets off to a hot start and I would say the same about Dameon Pierce if his value hadn't been recently affected by Devin Singletary
I don't believe this is the best time of year to trade players unless you're overwhelmed by a great offer. I think you're more likely to get a good offer in the middle of the season when running backs become scarce. If Pacheco, Pierce, or Herbert has a month as a top-15 running back, then you should cash in. Because history says they're more likely to be replaced next year than to repeat a great year.
His name is Alexander Mattison
If Mattison is the starter tomorrow do you keep him or immediately trade?— Ted S (@tedstevens5) June 1, 2023
Mattison has been in the RB50 range for most of the past year in my Dynasty running back rankings. If he was named the starter tomorrow, he'd leap up toward the RB30 range. I always have serious questions about backups making the leap to starter snaps and starter touches and until Week 1 I would be worried that he would be in more of a committee than Dalvin Cook was. If we get to Week 4 and Mattison is performing like a top 15 running back he could absolutely jump into my top 20 in Dynasty.
In other words, there is some room for upward motion even after Mattison gets the job, but there is also room for disappointment if his perceived value gets too high. I would trade him for a 2024 1st at any point in the journey described above.
Any essentially free players in deep leagues that are worth rostering / targeting?— KT SharkAttack (@ktSHARKATTACK) June 1, 2023
This is a question I'll have a much more thorough answer to in about a month. That's because I'm writing a deep sleepers article for our Fantasy Football magazine. Keep an eye out this summer at your favorite newsstand. For now, here are a few guys I found on the waiver wire of our 14-team Dynasty league:
Colt McCoy seems as likely, if not more likely, to start Week 1 than Kyler Murray at this point and Gardner Minshew could start Week 1 for the Colts. Both Jacoby Brissett and Taylor Heinicke could have a chance to take over for an unproven starter mid-season.
There is renewed buzz that Ty Montgomery will be the Patriots third-down back if he can stay healthy. He had the job before his injury last year. Latavius Murray seemingly finds himself in a starter's role at some point every year and now he's in Buffalo where Josh Allen is allegedly going to run less. Murray could turn into the goalline back or more.
Mack Hollins is technically a starting wide receiver for the Falcons and their No. 2 wide receiver behind Drake London. If Desomd Ridder is decent and London or Pitts gets hurt, Hollins should have a decent role. Danny Gray was a Round 3 pick just a year ago, there's no telling what Kyle Shanahan has up his sleeve.