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USATSI

There are multiple ways to use consensus rankings, even as an analyst. You could use them to see who you're an outlier on, to further evaluate those players and make sure you really want to be the high or low guy on a given player. You could also use them for the opposite purpose, to find buy and sell candidates, if you want to lean into your rankings compared to the consensus. That's the angle we're going with today.

In what is a bit of a dead period for Fantasy Football, there's no better time to search out trades. Today, let's focus on four players who rank considerably higher in the Fantasy Pros consensus rankings than they do in my top 150 below. 

Among players who rank as first-round picks in the consensus rankings, none of them rank lower than Joe Mixon for me, at No. 21. And this is one of the rare sell-highs that both contenders and rebuilders may be able to take advantage of. That's because the two players directly behind him are Austin Ekeler and Breece Hall. I would much rather have Ekeler if I'm contending (I project him for 39 more PPR Fantasy points in 2022), and Hall fits far better on a rebuilding team. 

While Mixon will only be 26 at the start of the season, like Ekeler he's just one injury away from a big drop in value. Remember how the community felt about the Bengals' running back before the 2021 season. It won't take much at all for those feelings to return. If you'd rather trade Mixon for a wide receiver, I'd target Davante Adams as a contender and DK Metcalf as a rebuilder.

The second sell-high candidate is another AFC North running back, Nick Chubb. He is eight months older than Mixon, has more competition for touches, and far more uncertainty in the situation around him. Still, he ranks 22nd in the consensus rankings, just ahead of Alvin Kamara and Jaylen Waddle, both of whom I'd strongly prefer in PPR leagues.

If Deshaun Watson is allowed to play 17 games for the Browns this season, I would expect an increase in the team's pass rate and a decrease in the team's rush rate. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that increase in pass rate would translate to a considerable target boost for Chubb. Kareem Hunt is used more in that role, and Watson hasn't thrown very much to his running backs anyway. If Watson is suspended, Jacoby Brissett will likely start, and that's even more frightening. 

The fact that Chubb will turn 27 before the calendar turns to 2023 and he doesn't project as a top-12 PPR running back makes it impossible for me to value him this high. Based on this ranking, you should be able to turn Chubb into a 2023 first-round pick and a young wide receiver, or if you're a contender you could get Aaron Jones and another piece that helps right now. I'd be thrilled to do either.

I don't want to solely pick on running backs, so let's throw a couple of wide receivers in the same conversation: Tyreek Hill and Diontae Johnson. They both rank in the top 25 on consensus rankings and both are outside my top-40 currently. Both have also seen their circumstances change dramatically this offseason and it could be detrimental to their Fantasy value early in the season.

For Hill, despite his recent comments, this is mostly about the quarterback downgrade from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. Not that Hill was made by Mahomes because he was very good with Alex Smith in 2017, but he's been a different monster altogether with Mahomes. And his efficiency isn't the only thing that could be affected. The Chiefs have been one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league the past three seasons while Mike McDaniel has typically run a more run-heavy scheme. That could change, but we should necessarily expect the 8.6 targets per game Hill has seen the past four seasons, especially when you consider Tagovailoa's extensive history with Jaylen Waddle. We're also just a year away from some in the community discounting Hill because he's 29 years old.

Johnson probably doesn't have to worry too much about his efficiency cratering. After all, he's been one of the least efficient high-volume receivers in the league. But I have serious concerns that without Ben Roethlisberger in the huddle, the Steelers pass rate is going to crater. They've averaged 660 pass attempts over the past two seasons. I expect that number to be closer to 560 with Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett under center. That could be disastrous for a player whose main skill over the past two years has been earning targets. 

None of Mixon, Chubb, Hill or Johnson are what I would call urgent sells. In other words, don't give them up unless you love the return. But I would shop all four just to see if someone in your league is valuing them like the consensus rankings do.

Here is my updated Dynasty trade chart and top 150: