With the 2022 NFL Draft completed, we are right in the thick of 2022 rookie-only drafts. That naturally means the community is turning its focus to 2023 draft picks. The 2023 draft class is supposed to be better at the top, especially at quarterback, which has led to speculation about how much more valuable 2023 picks are than 2022. Thankfully, now, we can compare the picks to the actual players.
At this point I have assigned one value to 2023 picks, because it may be too early to know whether one is early or late. I have a random 2023 pick behind Breece Hall, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Kenneth Walker, Treylon Burks, Chris Olave, and Jameson Williams. Jahan Dotson is basically tied with that pick. In other words, I have a random 2023 pick worth pick 1.08 in a one-QB rookie-only draft.
- Dynasty Rankings Updates: | | |
It's possible that the 2023 picks you're looking at aren't random at all. If the team you're trading with is one of the two or three best teams in the league, I probably wouldn't give up more than 1.10 for it. If for some reason one of the really terrible teams in the league is trying to trade you their 2023 first, I might go as high as 1.04.
One of the strange things about 2022 rookie drafts is that Superflex rankings don't look much different, at least in the first round. Kenny Pickett is the only QB in my Superflex rookie-only rankings, and he's 12th. As a rule, rookie picks are worth more in Superflex leagues because the quarterbacks make the drafts deeper. That's not necessarily true this year, but it absolutely projects to be true for 2023. For that reason, you should be valuing 2023 picks much higher in relation to 2022 picks in Superflex leagues.
As always, the chart below is set up for one-QB PPR leagues where you start two running backs, three receivers, and one flex. If yours is a Superflex league, boost the QB values by about 20. If it's tight end premium, boost the tight ends by 10. And remember, one plus one does not equal two in Dynasty trades. Charge a 10% premium if you're giving up the best player in a two-for-one deal. Charge 20% if it's three players for one.
Fantasy Football Today Newsletter
Know What Your Friends Don't
Get tips, advice and news to win your league - all from the FFT podcast team.