Fantasy Football Believe It or Not: Kyler Murray has arrived as an elite option, Adrian Peterson matters again

If you thought you had things figure out after Week 5, there's a pretty good chance you were wrong about a lot in Week 6. Adrian Peterson looked like a useful Fantasy asset again while Jameis Winston looked like he couldn't figure out which color of uniform he was supposed to be throwing to. That wasn't a problem for Kyler Murray, who looked like a must-start quarterback. But Murray faces the 49ers twice in the next five weeks, and they look impenetrable. 

So was Week 6 the outlier or should we trust what we just saw? That's what we'll tackle this week in Believe It or Not. 

Kyler Murray is a must-start Fantasy quarterback.

Murray had been hinting at this type of upside for a couple of weeks, but we finally saw it in Week 6. He threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 32 yards against a bad Falcons defense. This was Murray's third game this season with more than 300 passing yards and his third with multiple touchdown passes. Maybe more importantly, it was his second consecutive game with double digit rush attempts. As long as he's getting this type of volume you should start him with confidence. 

Verdict: Believe it.

This is about as perfect as a situation gets. Murray plays in a high-volume offense paired with a terrible defense. He's allowed the freedom to run and he has the weapons to put up big numbers passing. He's averaging 277 passing yards per game for the season and has been unleashed on the ground over the last month with 221 rushing yards in four games. There may be a week you don't want to start Murray but that will be the exception moving forward, not the rule. 

Adrian Peterson matters again in Fantasy.

When Bill Callahan was named the interim coach for Washington the first thing we heard was that he wanted to establish the run. Consider that mission accomplished. On Sunday they ran the ball 33 times for 145 yards in their victory over the Dolphins. The leader of that attack? None other than Adrian Peterson.

Peterson received the one thing he needs to get going: volume. His 23 carries were not just a season-high, they were more than he'd received in any two games combined this season. With Callahan's dedication to the run Peterson should be rostered in all leagues and started in most.

Verdict: Don't believe it. 

The Dolphins were giving up 175 rushing yards per game coming into this game. Washington ran for 30 fewer yards than that. In Week 7 they face a 49ers defense that's been one of the best in the NFL against the run. 

It's not as if San Francisco is the only reason I'm afraid of Peterson. As much as Callahan wants to establish the run, this Washington team is still very bad and likely to be down by multiple touchdowns in the second half most weeks. They're coming off the very best matchup in Fantasy and are unlikely to see a game script (or efficiency) like this again.  

You should drop any Buccaneer not named Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.

Winston and Ronald Jones couldn't have had much different days on Sunday. Winston threw 54 passes for 400 yards and turned the ball over five times. Jones only saw four touches in the game but turned one of them into a touchdown on a very nifty run. As different as their days were, there is something they share in common; they can be dropped as they head into their Week 7 bye week.

Verdict: Don't believe it. 

Winston has been really bad against good defenses and awesome against bad defenses. Even if he's just that, he's useful as a streamer against the right matchup. And I don't believe it's fair to assume that's all he'll be over the rest of the season.

Jones' usage in this game was disheartening but I want to see this team when they come back from the bye to see if the coaching staff reevaluates the way they're using their running backs. They absolutely should, because Jones has been much better than Peyton Barber this season. 

I'm not saying you can't drop Winston or Jones. They may be your only option. But I'm doing my best to hold on to both of them. I fully expect they'll help your Fantasy team down the stretch. 

San Francisco is a defense to avoid.

The 49ers are still undefeated after they dismantled the Rams on Sunday. A big reason why? Their defense. 

The 49ers rank amongst the league's best in terms of Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends. Some of this is due to a fortunate schedule, but they've thoroughly dominated Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff the past two weeks. 

You should do what you can to avoid starting players against the 49ers.

Verdict: Believe it. 

It's easy this week because they're playing Washington. Terry McLaurin is the only player you'd even consider in this matchup. And that's instructive. There's no matchup that would cause me to sit the top players at each position. But for those players where the matchups or situation do matter, the 49ers are one of the few defenses I'd prefer to avoid. 

If you've got Hunter Henry on your roster you're done streaming tight end.

It's been a brutal year for the tight end position but we got a little boost in Week 6. Hunter Henry returned and delivered on the upside we've been telling you about for three years. Henry caught eight of nine targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns against a good Steelers defense. He was everything we'd promised and more. If you've been streaming this season and used Henry this week you can stop stressing about the position. Henry is your starter.

Verdict: Believe it. 

Henry has now played 31 career games, so almost two full seasons. So you could just cut his career numbers in half and get close to a full season pace. That pace would be 47 catches for 608 yards and seven touchdowns. Now consider that most of those games were played with Antonio Gates. I expect him to be the No. 2 option in this pass offense and a top-five tight end rest of season. 

Senior Fantasy Writer

Heath Cummings is a Senior Fantasy Writer that covers Daily Fantasy Sports of all types. Before coming to CBS Sports he was a staff writer for Footballguys and the host of The Fantasy Football Show on... Full Bio

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