Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Brock Purdy lessens expectations for George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk

Deciphering what to expect from the talent-laden 49ers offense

Most everyone wants a piece of the 49ers offense in Fantasy. It's not only because they have some very high-profile players who have been good for many years, but also because Kyle Shanahan's offenses have scored at least 25.1 points per game in three of the past four seasons, including 26.5 points per game last year (sixth best in the league). And crazily enough, the Niners averaged 33.5 points per game in their final six last year with Brock Purdy at quarterback.

But the Niners' playmakers had very different results last season with Purdy compared to Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance. And in that subset of games with Purdy were another set of results impacted by an injury to Deebo Samuel. It's created confusion as to what expectations should be for everyone on the 49ers in 2023.

So like when cold air hits the San Francisco fog, let's clear it up, beginning with the most cherished running back in Fantasy Football.

Is CMC a gimme?

In 11 regular-season games with the 49ers last season, Christian McCaffrey averaged 21.9 PPR points per game. That wasn't quite as high as his best days with the Panthers, but it was still really good. 

McCaffrey really got going once Purdy got under center, averaging a that's-more-like-it 24.3 PPR points per game in six regular-season outings, and 24.9 PPR points per game when Purdy played and Deebo Samuel was on the field.

Fantasy managers are hoping for that kind of number from McCaffrey this year. What might stop him from getting it? You may have guessed it -- injuries. There are two points to make here:

1. Pretty much every back who's been worth a darn under Shanahan in San Francisco has incurred an injury.
2. McCaffrey suffered five separate injuries between 2020 and 2021.

On the first point, Shanahan previously treated most of his running backs as negligible assets, hoping for a couple of them to be available each week. That plan changed when he acquired McCaffrey (obviously) and he deserves credit for managing his prized running back appropriately. McCaffrey did share most games, but rarely did he miss out on high-value touches. Niners not named McCaffrey totaled six touches inside the 5-yard line last season between Week 8 and their divisional playoff game, and McCaffrey played 135 of 152 possible third- and fourth-down snaps over those 12 games (with 36 touches!). We crave that high-value work and should be more than OK with McCaffrey not working as much between the 20s if it means keeping him on the field.

As to the second point, it's just something that shouldn't be forgotten just because McCaffrey didn't miss a game in 2022. A big deal was made over how McCaffrey changed his diet last offseason and since it worked out for him he probably stuck with the same plan this offseason. If you're that worried about McCaffrey falling apart, spending a late pick on Elijah Mitchell (assuming he's their primary backup) makes sense.

Most importantly, there is nothing whatsoever to suggest McCaffrey isn't a candidate for the massive PPR average he had with Purdy last year. Purdy is the perfect quarterback to pair with McCaffrey because Purdy isn't a downfield gunslinger. He likes to keep his passes on-time and short (more on this later). It's a swell fit for McCaffrey.

McCaffrey remains the only real 1.01 option in traditional non-PPR leagues and in the mix as a top-five pick in PPR formats. You could make the case that Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp could have more spike weeks (huge games) in PPR than McCaffrey, and that combined with the general perception of safety among receivers could help you lean away from the running back. Then again, McCaffrey played more games than Chase and Kupp last season, and Kupp already has dealt with a hamstring issue this summer. 

I'm good taking McCaffrey behind Jefferson at second overall in PPR and first overall in non-PPR.

Will Deebo be Tiny or Zeus?

Deebo Samuel averaged 13.8 PPR points per game in the five games he played in with Purdy. That includes two partial games -- one he got hurt in (Week 14), another he didn't have to touch the ball much in (Week 18). If we really cherry pick this down to a teeny sample size, Samuel averaged 18.8 PPR points per game in his three outings without any limitations, though even that number is inflated by a monster game against the Seahawks.

What stood out to me in all of Samuel's games with Purdy was his volume. In the five games he averaged 6.8 targets, 4.4 receptions and 3.2 carries per. That's a pretty good amount for Samuel, particularly with a quarterback who likes to keep his throws close to the line of scrimmage (yes, more on this later).

By comparison, Samuel averaged 7.6 targets, 4.4 receptions and 3.3 rushes per game before Purdy took over in Week 13. Other than his targets ramping up a little bit, his role and workload really didn't change.

Could he still average 3.3 carries per game? He's been taking carries in training camp, so it's possible it gets that high, but the smarter bet is that Samuel's rushing dwindles but his targets make up for it. Point being: He was still a candidate for seven touches per game on average last year and should still live in that range this year.

Lastly, I mentioned he averaged 13.8 PPR points per game in five with Purdy; Samuel averaged 13.7 in 10 games before Purdy took over. I'm not naive enough to say it doesn't matter who plays quarterback for the 49ers, but it's pretty clear that drafting Samuel with a 13-plus PPR floor feels safe. As for his ceiling? We experienced that in 2021 -- 20.4 PPR points per game. It's unlikely to get that high, but a push toward 16 points per game isn't out of the question.

I consider Samuel safer in non- and half-PPR than full-PPR but I'm not letting anyone get him past late Round 4.

How awesome will Aiyuk be?

Aiyuk has made an impression at 49ers camp this summer. In one practice he caught five passes in team drills -- four for touchdowns and three of those within the red zone. His cumulative numbers were awesome: a 78-1,015-8 stat line on 114 targets over 17 games, good for 13.4 PPR points per game, but the devil is in the details.

• He played four games without Deebo Samuel and averaged 16.0 PPR points per game.
• One of those games wasn't with Brock Purdy (20.1 PPR points in Week 8).
• The three with Purdy were a little less exciting (14.6 PPR points per game).
• In the 13 regular-season games he played with Samuel, he averaged 12.6 PPR points per game and 6.5 targets per game.
• If we include the two playoff games he played with Samuel, his average dipped to 11.9 PPR points per game and 6.3 targets per game.
• In five games where Purdy and Samuel played, including the playoffs, Aiyuk averaged 9.6 PPR points per game and 5.2 targets per game.

Obviously if the 49ers make an offensive shift to give Aiyuk more targets from game to game, his numbers will pop. That might be what you have to count on if you take Aiyuk. In six seasons as the 49ers playcaller, only one receiver -- Deebo Samuel -- had more than 120 targets in a season (2021), and only four times has a receiver averaged 7.0 or more targets per game: Pierre Garcon in 2017 (8.38 per game), Aiyuk in 2020 (8.0 per game in 12 games), and Samuel twice (7.56 in 2021, 7.23 in 13 games in 2022). At least Aiyuk has seen desirable target volume before -- but he didn't get it in the two years that followed.

Now what you've been waiting for: Consider that Purdy's Average Depth of Throw (ADOT) was not only lower than that of Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance, but it also ranked 35th among 38 quarterbacks with at least 170 pass attempts last year. And it's not so easy to say "Purdy will throw it deeper" when he's coming back from a UCL surgery. The Niners haven't been a downfield attacking offense very often and aren't likely to be that way with Purdy.

Aiyuk is a very likable Fantasy receiver, but I'd try to draft him as if he's going to average between 12 and 13 PPR points per game this year, not between 14 and 16. If I'm looking for him in Round 6, I'm probably not drafting him too often because someone else will buy into his upside. I can live with that.

Is Kittle no longer a top-five TE?

George Kittle remains a must-start Fantasy tight end. He's found a way to be outstanding pretty much every year since 2018 (with 2020 as an injury-riddled exception). But expectations should be realistic and not rooted in what he's produced in the past.

You might remember Kittle was inactive for the first two weeks of last year before returning to his usual allotment of snaps. In four games before McCaffrey was acquired, he averaged 6.3 targets and 8.8 PPR points per game. He didn't have more than 50 yards until Week 6 and didn't score until Week 7, which was McCaffrey's first game with the Niners.

From the game McCaffrey was on the roster through Week 12 (all games started by Jimmy Garoppolo), Kittle averaged 5.2 targets and 13.6 PPR points per game. Scoring four touchdowns, including two against lowly Arizona, helped a lot.

Then Garoppolo got hurt and Purdy took over. Two weeks later, Samuel was off the field for three weeks. Then Samuel came back for Week 18 and two playoff games before Purdy hurt his arm against the Eagles, a game that I'm not holding against Kittle or any 49ers.

Let's break it down:

• Eight games with Purdy (including playoffs): 5.3 targets and 14.4 PPR points per game. 
• Three games with Purdy but not Samuel: 7.0 targets and *double-checks notes* 22.5 PPR points per game.
• Five games overall Purdy and Deebo (including playoffs): 4.2 targets and 10.4 PPR points per game.

Just over 10 PPR points per game from a tight end is close to what you'd consider good (not great) from week to week, and. 4.2 targets per game is not considered good at all. Really the only time he had great target volume was at the beginning of the year (before McCaffrey arrived and before Purdy took over) and in Weeks 15-17 (when Samuel did not play).

It's the small sample size from last year when all of the 49ers' star players were healthy that has people nervous about Kittle's numbers this season.

It's also not what we're used to from Kittle. He was cumulatively below 6.7 targets per game for the first time since his rookie year. But it makes sense for the 49ers to veer away from him. Yes, he's still a beast and yes, he will still score touchdowns, but if the offense wants to be more explosive it has literally three of the best possible players for it in McCaffrey, Samuel and Aiyuk. Shifting designed targets away from Kittle makes so much sense on two fronts: He can block more and he can play fewer snaps from game to game in an effort to stay healthy.

This is why I'm passing on Kittle over not just the elite-level tight ends, but also high-upside guys like Kyle Pitts and Darren Waller. I get a little hung up on Kittle versus Dallas Goedert because their situations are so similar: both are in evolving offenses who will share with big-time playmakers. At least Kittle has a shot at scoring more than Goedert, and that's enough for me to rank him sixth-best at the position.

If I can get Kittle in late Round 7 or Round 8, I'm taking him. Before then, I'm not.