Watch Now: FFT: 2019 QB Sleepers (2:00)

Projections can be a useful tool when used right, but there are also issues with boiling down all the factors that influence a player's expectation into a single number. 

Whenever two projections are close enough that they could be swayed by a few extra opportunities -- an extra target here, an extra rush attempt there -- it's hard to put much weight on the minor differences. But there is plenty of value in considering which players have projections with a significant gap between them, or who comes in well above or below their Average Draft Position, and why. 

One easy way to look at projections is in tiers, grouping together the players that came out with Fantasy point totals within the same ballpark. Below are Heath Cummings' and Ben Gretch's projections tiers for quarterbacks for both 6-point passing touchdown and 4-point passing touchdown scoring systems.

The below tiers are purely where the players come out in a "most likely" scenario. Typically projections assume reasonable health, and by their nature they don't do a good job of capturing upside or downside, all of which are important context that should be applied to the below player groupings. While projections aren't Draft rankings -- you can find Heath's ranks, along with Jamey Eisenberg's and Dave Richard's, on our Draft Prep page -- the tiers do provide a useful baseline to consider player value.

Heath Cummings' 6-point passing TD QB tiers

400-plus points375-385 points360-375 points
Patrick MahomesAaron RodgersCarson Wentz
DeShaun Watson 
Cam Newton
 
 
Baker Mayfield
 
 
 
345-355 points325-340 points300-320 points
Jameis WinstonTom BradyJimmy Garoppolo
Jared GoffRussell WilsonDerek Carr
Mitchell TrubiskyDrew BreesJacoby Brissett
Ben RoethlisbergerKyler MurrayKirk Cousins
Lamar JacksonPhilip RiversSam Darnold
Matt RyanJosh Allen 
Dak Prescott 
 

Heath Cummings' 4-point passing TD QB tiers

350-plus points325-335 points310-320 points
Deshaun WatsonPatrick MahomesCarson Wentz
 
Cam NewtonLamar Jackson
 
Aaron RodgersBaker Mayfield
 
 
Jameis Winston
 
 
Mitchell Trubisky
 
 
 
295-305 points285-290 points260-280 points
Ben RoethlisbergerTom BradyJacoby Brissett
Dak PrescottDrew BreesJimmy Garoppolo
Kyler MurrayPhilip RiversDerek Carr
Matt Ryan 
Marcus Mariota
Jared Goff 
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen 
Kirk Cousins
Russell Wilson 
 

Ben Gretch's 6-point passing TD QB tiers

425-plus points375-385 points355-365 points
Patrick MahomesDeshaun WatsonCam Newton
 
Aaron RodgersCarson Wentz
 
 
Jameis Winston
 
 
Baker Mayfield
 
 
Russell Wilson
 
 
 
340-350 points325-340 points300-320 points
Jared GoffLamar JacksonKirk Cousins
Matt RyanBen RoethlisbergerAndy Dalton
Drew BreesMitchell TrubiskyJimmy Garoppolo
Kyler MurrayPhilip RiversJacoby Brissett
Tom BradyDak PrescottMatthew Stafford

Ben Gretch's 4-point passing TD QB tiers

360-plus points340-345 points320-330 points
Patrick MahomesDeshaun WatsonCam Newton
 
 
Aaron Rodgers
 
 
Jameis Winston
 
 
 
310-315 points290-305 points270-290
Kyler MurrayJared GoffTom Brady
Carson WentzMatt RyanPhilip Rivers
Baker MayfieldMitchell TrubiskyKirk Cousins
Russell WilsonDrew BreesJimmy Garoppolo
Lamar JacksonBen RoethlisbergerAndy Dalton
 
Dak PrescottJacoby Brissett