Projections can be a useful tool when used right, but there are issues with boiling down all the factors that influence a player's expectation into a single number.
That can be especially true at running back, where workload is key. Since projections typically assume reasonable health, high-upside backups are frequently projected for workloads that represent their worst-case scenario.
By comparison, pass-catching backs with defined roles will often be projected at a spot where they don't have a ton of upside, if they aren't the type of back who would likely assume more carries should an injury occur.
Because projections are inexact, a good way to look at them is in tiers, grouping together the players that came out with Fantasy point totals within the same ballpark. Below are Heath Cummings' and Ben Gretch's projections tiers for running backs for both PPR and non-PPR scoring systems.
It's important to remember these aren't Draft ranks, just projections of the most likely scenario. Make sure to factor in upside and downside, plus injury risk, before making any Draft Day decisions. You can always check out our full rankings on the Draft Prep page.
Heath Cummings' PPR RB projection tiers
| 340-plus points | 280-290 points | 255-270 points | 225-235 points |
| Saquon Barkley | Le'Veon Bell | Joe Mixon | Todd Gurley |
| Alvin Kamara | James Conner | David Johnson | Devonta Freeman |
| Christian McCaffrey |
| Nick Chubb |
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| Ezekiel Elliott |
| Kerryon Johnson |
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| Leonard Fournette |
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| Dalvin Cook |
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| 210-225 points | 195-205 points | 185-195 points | 155-180 points |
| Chris Carson | Josh Jacobs | James White | Melvin Gordon |
| Damien Williams | Kenyan Drake | David Montgomery | Latavius Murray |
| Tevin Coleman | Mark Ingram | Dion Lewis | LeSean McCoy |
| Aaron Jones | Tarik Cohen | Marlon Mack | Rashaad Penny |
| Duke Johnson |
| Sony Michel | Miles Sanders |
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| Austin Ekeler | Peyton Barber |
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| Kalen Ballage |
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| Chris Thompson |
| 130-155 points | 80-115 points |
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| Derrius Guice | Ito Smith |
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| Jalen Richard | Jordan Howard |
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| Royce Freeman | Devin Singletary |
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| Matt Breida | Justice Hill |
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| Darwin Thompson | Alexander Mattison |
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| Ronald Jones | Tony Pollard |
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| Justin Jackson | Jaylen Samuels |
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| Darrell Henderson | Giovani Bernard |
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| Nyheim Hines | C.J. Anderson |
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| Jamaal Williams |
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| Ty Montgomery |
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| Kareem Hunt |
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Heath Cummings' non-PPR RB projection tiers
| 275-plus points | 250-255 points | 220-230 points |
| Saquon Barkley | Christian McCaffrey | Nick Chubb |
| Alvin Kamara |
| James Conner |
| Ezekiel Elliott |
| Joe Mixon |
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| 200-215 points | 180-190 points | 165-180 points |
| Le'Veon Bell | Chris Carson | Tevin Coleman |
| Leonard Fournette | Devonta Freeman | Derrick Henry |
| Dalvin Cook | Aaron Jones | Mark Ingram |
| Kerryon Johnson |
| Sony Michel |
| David Johnson |
| Marlon Mack |
| Todd Gurley |
| Josh Jacobs |
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| Phillip Lindsay |
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| Damien Williams |
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| 145-160 points | 125-140 points | 85-120 points |
| David Montgomery | Austin Ekeler | Matt Breida |
| Duke Johnson | Kalen Ballage | Darwin Thompson |
| Kenyan Drake | Dion Lewis | Justin Jackson |
| Latavius Murray | Miles Sanders | Jordan Howard |
| Melvin Gordon | Royce Freeman | Ronald Jones |
| Derrius Guice | Darrell Henderson |
| Tarik Cohen | Chris Thompson |
| Rashaad Penny | Alexander Mattison |
| LeSean McCoy | Jalen Richard |
| Peyton Barber | Devin Singletary |
| James White | C.J. Anderson |
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| Ito Smith |
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| Justice Hill |
Ben Gretch's PPR RB projection tiers
| 340-plus points | 330-335 points | 290-295 points | 275-280 points |
| Christian McCaffrey | Alvin Kamara | Ezekiel Elliott | David Johnson |
| Saquon Barkley |
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| James Conner |
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| 240-255 points | 210-230 points | 180-200 points | 165-175 points |
| Dalvin Cook | Todd Gurley | James White | Melvin Gordon |
| Joe Mixon | Aaron Jones | Duke Johnson | Chris Carson |
| Leonard Fournette | Devonta Freeman | Marlon Mack | Tevin Coleman |
| Damien Williams | Josh Jacobs | Derrick Henry | Kenyan Drake |
| Kerryon Johnson |
| Tarik Cohen | Phillip Lindsay |
| Le'Veon Bell |
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| Nick Chubb |
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| 150-165 points | 135-150 points | 105-130 points | 80-105 points |
| David Montgomery | Ronald Jones | Kalen Ballage | Justin Jackson |
| Austin Ekeler | Rashaad Penny | Royce Freeman | Peyton Barber |
| Sony Michel | Dion Lewis | Jaylen Samuels | Giovani Bernard |
| Darrell Henderson | Chris Thompson | Nyheim Hines | Justice Hill |
| Jalen Richard | LeSean McCoy | Ito Smith | Darwin Thompson |
| Mark Ingram | Derrius Guice | Tony Pollard | Rex Burkhead |
| Latavius Murray |
| Ty Montgomery | Jordan Howard |
| Miles Sanders |
| C.J. Anderson | Jamaal Williams |
| Matt Breida |
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| Adrian Peterson |
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| Damien Harris |
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| Alexander Mattison |
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| Devin Singletary |
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| Dontrell Hilliard |
Ben Gretch's non-PPR RB projection tiers
| 245-plus points | 235-240 points | 215-225 points | 205-210 points |
| Saquon Barkley | Ezekiel Elliott | James Conner | Nick Chubb |
| Christian McCaffrey |
| David Johnson | Joe Mixon |
| Alvin Kamara |
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| Dalvin Cook |
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| 190-200 points | 165-180 points | 135-150 points | 125-140 points |
| Leonard Fournette | Devonta Freeman | Duke Johnson | David Montgomery |
| Damien Williams | Josh Jacobs | Sony Michel | Mark Ingram |
| Kerryon Johnson | Derrick Henry | Chris Carson | Phillip Lindsay |
| Todd Gurley | Marlon Mack | Melvin Gordon | James White |
| Le'Veon Bell |
| Tevin Coleman | Kenyan Drake |
| Aaron Jones |
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| Latavius Murray |
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| Austin Ekeler |
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| 115-125 points | 95-105 points | 80-90 points | 70-80 points |
| Tarik Cohen | LeSean McCoy | C.J. Anderson | Nyheim Hines |
| Ronald Jones | Kalen Ballage | Peyton Barber | Adrian Peterson |
| Darrell Henderson | Dion Lewis | Jordan Howard | Justin Jackson |
| Rashaad Penny | Jalen Richard | Chris Thompson | Alexander Mattison |
| Miles Sanders | Ito Smith | Jaylen Samuels | Justice Hill |
| Matt Breida |
| Ty Montgomery | Darwin Thompson |
| Derrius Guice |
| Tony Pollard | Jamaal Williams |
| Royce Freeman |
| Damien Harris |
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