Projections can be a useful tool when used right, but there are issues with boiling down all the factors that influence a player's expectation into a single number.
That can be especially true at running back, where workload is key. Since projections typically assume reasonable health, high-upside backups are frequently projected for workloads that represent their worst-case scenario.
By comparison, pass-catching backs with defined roles will often be projected at a spot where they don't have a ton of upside, if they aren't the type of back who would likely assume more carries should an injury occur.
Because projections are inexact, a good way to look at them is in tiers, grouping together the players that came out with Fantasy point totals within the same ballpark. Below are Heath Cummings' and Ben Gretch's projections tiers for running backs for both PPR and non-PPR scoring systems.
It's important to remember these aren't Draft ranks, just projections of the most likely scenario. Make sure to factor in upside and downside, plus injury risk, before making any Draft Day decisions. You can always check out our full rankings on the Draft Prep page.
Heath Cummings' PPR RB projection tiers
|Leonard Fournette|| |
|Alexander Mattison|| |
Heath Cummings' non-PPR RB projection tiers
Ben Gretch's PPR RB projection tiers
Ben Gretch's non-PPR RB projection tiers