We're officially at the quarter-point of the NFL season for every team but the Packers and Eagles, who were on a bye in Week 4.
It doesn't feel like much, but the Fantasy season is well under way, and you might be running out of time to turn your season around.
On the other hand, there are still nine weeks left in most leagues until the playoffs start, so it isn't time to panic, even if you are 0-4 at this point.
But, you will need to start making some moves.
Even if you believed in the collection of talent you put together before the season, enough time has passed that you need to adjust expectations at this point. That doesn't mean you have to overreact to four games, but it does mean you can't just expect everything you thought before the season to be true.
So let's look at some of the storylines from after Week 4, and what you might need to react to at the quarter pole.
As always, taking a running back early has come with plenty of risk this season. While David Johnson has dominated as expected and Ezekiel Elliot has lived up to expectations after a somewhat rocky start, the rest of the first-round running backs haven't been particularly impressive. Adrian Peterson has already busted out with a season-ending injury; Lamar Miller has been held mostly in check despite a massive role; Le'Veon Bell should be terrific, but has played just one of the first four games due to as suspension, as expected. However, the most disappointing back so far has clearly been Todd Gurley, who went off the board as the No. 1 running back in nearly all leagues. Fresh off a top-five finish in 2015 as a rookie -- in 13 games! -- Gurley just hasn't had any room to operate this season, ranking 23rd in standard Fantasy leagues at the position. Meanwhile, Murray has found his 2014 form, sitting pretty as the top scorer at the position after four games, despite coming into the season as the No. 19-drafted back, per industry ADP. Murray has fit in better in Tennessee than he did in Philadelphia, and currently sports a 5.2 YPC, with 19 receptions in four games, to boot. Murray's touchdown pace will almost certainly slow down, but his overall productivity looks pretty sustainable, and he has clearly beaten back any challenge from rookie Derrick Henry for playing time. Murray has a 10-point lead on the No. 2 RB, Melvin Gordon, and looks renewed. He is an elite back.
DeAndre Hopkins is a bust
Hopkins was tremendous in 2015, finishing sixth at the position in Fantasy scoring, but he was hardly a paragon of efficiency. Because, while he was sixth among all receivers in Fantasy points, he was second in targets, with 180; among the top-30 in Fantasy points at WR, he ranked 21st in points per target. We figured Hopkins would see a bit of a reduced role, but nobody expected Hopkins, at the quarter pole of the season, to rank second on his own team in targets. What is perhaps more concerning is how much more effective rookie Will Fuller has been than Hopkins so far, sporting both a higher catcher rate and a better yards per catch than Hopkins. Hopkins has fewer than nine targets in three of four games so far this season, a total he eclipsed in all but two games all of last season. At this point, I would still bet on Hopkins finishing as the Texans' top target, as defense shift more attention to the speedy Fuller. However, 1,500 yards and double-digit touchdowns might be asking a lot, making another top-10 finish at WR look a lot harder to come by.
Andrew Luck owners need another QB
We have three full seasons, one half-season and one-quarter season to go on with Andrew Luck's NFL career. Here are his finishes in Fantasy scoring per game by year:
There's no doubting Luck can be pretty good, but there is a clear outlier here. He has avoided the kind of truly mediocre seasons the likes of Phillip Rivers (21st in 2012) or even Aaron Rodgers (17th in 2015) have suffered through, but his place among the truly elite of the Fantasy world seems less assured than his reputation might suggest. This might not be all Luck's fault -- his receiving corps is probably underrated, but the Colts have struggled to protect Luck or run the ball -- but the fact remains, there has only been one season where Luck has been consistently good enough to be considered a must-start Fantasy quarterback. You can and should start Luck most weeks, but at this point, it's hard to argue he is the kind of quarterback you can just slot in every week without thinking about the matchup.
Isaiah Crowell is a top-10 back
If you went zero-RB this season, you probably still weren't looking to draft Crowell. Oh sure, you might have ended up with him on your roster, but he was just about the last starting running back anyone wanted on their roster. Duke Johnson was expected to push Crowell for playing time, both in the passing and running games. And, while Johnson has been a factor out of the backfield as a passcatcher, he hasn't been able to supplant Crowell, who is on pace for a career-high in carries, yards and receptions. Crowell likely has some regression on the way, but the Browns have been invested in getting him involved on the ground even as they have racked up an 0-4 record, and he and Johnson complement eachother well. I'm not sure if Crowell is a top-10 back rest of season, but if I have him as my RB2, I feel pretty good about it at this point.
Rob Gronkowski owners need another TE
That's two weeks in a row Gronkowski has been cleared to play, only to leave Fantasy owners hanging. He actually caught a pass this week, but he has still been a major bust through four games. The hamstring may still be limiting Gronkowski, as he actually played five fewer snaps than Martellus Bennett Sunday as well. Still, this is Rob Gronkowski we're talking about. I don't care how many games he disappoints you in; you aren't sitting Rob Gronkowski. For anyone. Tom Brady's return in Week 5 against the Browns can't come any sooner for Gronkowski owners, who should expect a vintage Gronk performance.
The Broncos' WR are QB-proof
Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas have been a remarkable wide receiving duo since they got together, but there was a widely held assumption that their success was more the result of Peyton Manning's excellence than anything Thomas or Sanders do on their own. Even after Manning's subpar performance last season, Sanders and Thomas still got dinged for the Broncos' quarterback situation in drafts this season, as Thomas fell to WR29 in drafts this offseason, while Thomas was the 16th player off the board at the position. And yet, one-fourth of the way through the season, both rank among the top-12 at the position, with numbers that look remarkably similar to what they managed last season:
Sanders, 2015: 76 receptions, 1,135 yards, six touchdowns
Sanders, 2016 (pace): 100 receptions, 1,172 yards, 12 touchdowns
Thomas, 2015: 105 receptions, 1,304 yards, six touchdowns
Thomas, 2016 (pace): 84 receptions, 1,328 yards, eight touchdowns
You might expect Sanders to slow down a bit, especially in the touchdown department. However, it's pretty clear they weren't being propped up by the quarterback play last season, and they haven't missed a beat with Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch throwing them the ball. Neither player is likely to finish the season as a No. 1 WR, but it's hard not to see they were undervalued on Draft Day.