The San Diego Padres were expected to be nothing more than a stepping stone in the Wild Card Series but surprisingly knocked off the 101-win New York Mets in three games. They were given even less of a chance in the National League Division Series but again shocked the baseball world by defeating the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers in four contests. The Padres now find themselves in the role of the favorite when they host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the 2022 NL Championship Series on Tuesday. Philadelphia, which upset the reigning world champion Braves in the NLDS after sweeping St. Louis in the Wild Card Series, returns to the NLCS for the first time since losing to San Francisco in 2010. Entering the 2022 MLB playoffs, the Phillies went 4-3 against the Padres during the regular season, winning three of four in San Diego.
First pitch at Petco Park is set for 8:03 p.m. ET. San Diego is a -120 money-line favorite (risk $120 to win $100) in the latest Padres vs. Phillies odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The Phillies are +100 underdogs, while the over/under for total runs scored is 6.5. Before making any Phillies vs. Padres picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it enters the league championship round on a 20-13 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks, returning more than $400. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Padres vs. Phillies, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Padres:
- Padres vs. Phillies money line: San Diego -120, Philadelphia +100
- Padres vs. Phillies over/under: 6.5 runs
- Padres vs. Phillies run line: San Diego -1.5 (+185)
- SD: The Padres were outscored 18-10 in four home meetings with Philadelphia this year
- PHI: The Phillies are 42-19 in their last 61 contests at San Diego
- Padres vs. Phillies picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Padres
Yu Darvish went 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA in his first season with San Diego in 2021 but bounced back this year as he was third in the NL with a career-high-tying 16 victories and led the senior circuit with 25 quality starts. The 36-year-old right-hander from Japan has won eight of his last nine turns, including both this postseason. Darvish went 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts against the Phillies in the regular season, recording 14 strikeouts while issuing just one walk over 13 innings, and is 2-1 with a 2.23 mark in seven career outings versus the club.
Austin Nola, the brother of Philadelphia right-hander Aaron, has been one of San Diego's top offensive players this postseason as he has gone 8-for-21 with four RBI while batting ninth in the order. The 32-year-old catcher led the Padres with four RBI against the Phillies this year. Trent Grisham, who had a .184 batting average during the regular season, also is 8-for-21 with a playoff-high three home runs and shares the team lead of five RBI with Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar.
Why you should back the Phillies
Every player in Philadelphia's starting lineup has contributed offensively this postseason, as all nine have registered at least two RBI over six games. Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper leads the charge with three homers and six RBI while Nick Castellanos, who struggled in his first year with the Phillies (13 homers, 62 RBI), has plated five runs. Kyle Schwarber, who led the senior circuit with 46 blasts during the regular season, has yet to get on track in the playoffs, but Brandon Marsh and Rhys Hoskins -- who is 6-for-16 lifetime against Darvish -- have hit key home runs while J.T. Realmuto added an inside-the-parker.
Zack Wheeler is expected to make his third start of the postseason for Philadelphia. The 32-year-old right-hander tossed 6 ⅓ stellar innings in the Wild Card Series opener at St. Louis and cruised through the first five frames in Game 2 of the Division Series at Atlanta before running into trouble in the sixth. Wheeler is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA in seven career outings against San Diego and scattered four hits over seven scoreless innings of a victory in his only turn versus the club this year.
How to make Phillies vs. Padres picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 7.5 total runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Padres vs. Phillies? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Padres vs. Phillies you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.
