Within the last two weeks or so two of the three largest (and three of the five largest) contracts in baseball history were signed. The Padres reeled in Manny Machado with a 10-year, $300 million contract two weeks ago. The Phillies followed that up giving Bryce Harper a $13 million contract worth $330 million.
Here are the five largest contracts in baseball history:
- Bryce Harper, Phillies: 13 years, $330 million
- Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325 million
- Manny Machado, Padres: 10 years, $300 million
- Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 10 years, $275 million
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies: 8 years, $260 million
A-Rod became the first $200 million player in baseball history when he signed his 10-year, $252 million deal with the Rangers back in 2001. That remained the record contract until A-Rod broke it with his $275 million deal in 2008. That was the record until Stanton signed his deal in 2015, and Stanton's deal was the record until Harper signed his contract a few days ago.
In all likelihood Harper's new contract with the Phillies will remain the record deal -- in terms of guaranteed dollars, that is -- for another two years. Two years from now, the great Mike Trout will become a free agent for the first time in his career, and as long as he stays healthy between now and then, he will set a new contract record. Trout is already one of the best players in history and he will hit the open market at age 29.
Harper is already trying to woo Trout to Philadelphia, though the Angels will not let him leave quietly. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Halos have considered making Trout a record $350 million contract offer in recent weeks. From Rosenthal:
In recent weeks, the Los Angeles Angels at least considered offering Mike Trout a 10-year, $350 million extension, though it is unclear whether they followed through with an actual proposal, according to sources with knowledge of the club's thinking.
Ten years and $350 million would give Trout the record for both total guarantee and average annual value. Zack Greinke currently holds the average annual value record at $34.4 million. Arenado is a distant second at $32.5 million. Also, remember, Trout still has two years and $66.5 million remaining on his current contract. Add the 10-year extension on top of that we're talking about a 12-year deal worth $416.5 million.
That is a record-shattering sum of money and Trout deserves it. He broke into the big leagues for good in 2012, the same year as Machado and Harper, and since then Trout has produced 63.8 WAR, more than Machado and Harper combined (61.2 WAR). Here is the WAR leaderboard since 2012:
- Mike Trout: 63.8 WAR
- Max Scherzer: 45.5 WAR
- Clayton Kershaw: 43.6 WAR
- Chris Sale: 39.6 WAR
- Robinson Cano & Paul Goldschmidt: 39.8 WAR
Teams are increasingly refusing to pay for past performance, however, and Trout will be three years older when he becomes a free agent than Machado and Harper were when they became free agents this year. Trout's next deal will, in theory, buy up fewer peak years, which could be reflected in the guaranteed money. That said, Trout is so good it might not matter. Two more Trout-like seasons and normal free agent behavior probably goes out the window.
Given what we know right now, a 10-year offer worth $350 million is well short of Trout's actual worth given his career relative to Machado's and Harper's. Those guys are great. I'd happily take either on my team. They're not Trout though. Even considering the two years remaining on his current contract, getting Trout for 12 years and $416.5 million seems like a pretty great deal for the Angels. His value transcends his on-field performance. He is the Angels.
Keep in mind this reported 10-year, $350 million offer (which may or may not have been made) is presumably only a starting point. I doubt it's a final offer. The Angels will put it out there, and if Trout says yes, great! If not, then Trout's side will make a counteroffer, and the Angels will respond, then Trout's camp will respond, and on and on it goes. They'll do that either until they agree to a contract, or another team swoops in to give Trout what he wants when he becomes a free agent.
Even though there are still two years to go until Trout becomes a free agent, the Angels surely feel some pressure to get a deal done sooner rather than later. The closer Trout gets to free agency, the louder the rumblings will grow about him bolting to join the Phillies or the Yankees or whoever, and the temptation to test free agency could increase as well. Trout is finishing up a $144.5 million contract right now. He's already made a fortune and may be willing to test the market rather than jump on a huge extension right now.
Trout has indicated he prefers not to negotiate during spring training or the regular season, though I imagine he and his representatives will listen should the Angels put a huge offer in front of them at some point. Ten years and $350 million on top of the two years remaining on his contract does seem light to me given what Machado and Harper received. Then again, it is only an opening offer. These conversations have to start somewhere.
