The Utah Jazz aim to end their 2022-23 home schedule on a high note when they host the Denver Nuggets on Saturday afternoon. Utah is 36-44 overall and 22-18 at home, while Denver is 52-28 overall and set to enter the postseason with the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Lauri Markkanen (hand), Collin Sexton (hamstring), Walker Kessler (concussion), Talen Horton-Tucker (ankle), Rudy Gay (back) and Jordan Clarkson (finger) are out for Utah. Nikola Jokic (calf), Michael Porter Jr. (heel), Jamal Murray (thumb), Aaron Gordon (shoulder) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (illness) are listed as questionable for Denver.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Denver as the 6-point favorite for this 3:30 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 225 in the latest Nuggets vs. Jazz odds. Before locking in any Jazz vs. Nuggets picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters the final week of the 2022-23 NBA regular season a stunning 71-36 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Jazz and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Jazz vs. Nuggets:
- Nuggets vs. Jazz spread: Nuggets -6
- Nuggets vs. Jazz over/under: 225 points
- Nuggets vs. Jazz money line: Nuggets -250, Jazz +205
- DEN: The Nuggets are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
- UTAH: The Jazz are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
- Nuggets vs. Jazz picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Nuggets can cover
Denver's offensive profile is tremendous this season. The Nuggets are elite overall, scoring 1.17 points per possession, and Michael Malone's team ranks in the top three of the league in shooting efficiency. That includes the best field goal percentage in the NBA (50.5%) and 38.1% shooting from 3-point range. Denver is in the top five of the league in assists per game (28.9), assist percentage (66.2%), and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.00), and the Nuggets are averaging 55.1 points in the paint and 16.3 fast break points per game.
The Nuggets secure 28.8% of their own missed shots on the offensive glass, and Utah is in the bottom tier of the league in defensive rating, giving up 1.16 points per possession. On the other end, the Nuggets are in the top 10 in 3-point defense, defensive rebound rate, second-chance points allowed and free throw attempts allowed to opponents.
Why the Jazz can cover
Utah's offense is very strong this season, scoring more than 1.15 points per possession. The Jazz are exceptionally potent on the offensive glass, ranking in the top five of the NBA in offensive rebound rate (30.9%) and second-chance points (15.8 per game). Utah shares the ball well, averaging 25.9 assists per game, and the Jazz are also averaging more than 24 free throw attempts per contest.
On defense, Utah is electric in rim protection, averaging well over five blocked shots per game, and opponents average only 24.8 assists per game against the Jazz. Denver may be short handed in this matchup with the No. 1 seed wrapped up, and the Nuggets commit well over 14 turnovers per game on offense. Utah is also substantially better at home this season, both in win-loss record and underlying metrics, and the Jazz are facing a Nuggets team that notably weakens away from Denver.
How to make Jazz vs. Nuggets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 229 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Nuggets vs. Jazz? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
