We get a double dose of prime time in East Rutherford, as the New York Jets play host to the Buffalo Bills just 24 hours after the Dallas Cowboys defeated the New York Giants. The Aaron Rodgers era in New York is upon us, and the Jets now have Super Bowl aspirations. The two matchups they have vs. the Bills are going to be important, as they are the favorites in the division.
The Bills are 20-10-2 against the spread on the road since 2019, which ranks second-best in the NFL in that span, while the Jets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four Week 1 games. But go ahead and throw out whatever you think you know about the history of the Bills and Jets, because this is the beginning of a new era.
Below, we will break down this Monday night matchup from a gambling perspective, and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch the game.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Sept. 11 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
TV: ESPN/ABC | Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bills -2, O/U 45.5
Injury report
- Bills: NONE
- Jets: OT Mekhi Becton (knee, illness), OT Duane Brown (shoulder), RB Breece Hall (knee) QUESTIONABLE
For the Bills, safety Micah Hyde returned to practice this week after missing some time with a sore back. He has no injury designation for Week 1, and is ready to roll.
The Jets have a couple of banged-up offensive tackles in Becton and Brown, but the good news is that they both were full participants in practice on Saturday. The same goes for Hall, who was limited on Thursday and Friday with his knee. Per ESPN, if appears all three players are ready to play Monday night.
Line movement
This line opened at BUF -3 on May 11, but quickly fell to BUF -1.5 before ending the day at BUF -2. On Aug. 25, the line was bumped up to BUF -2.5, but again fell to BUF -2 this past Sunday.
The pick: Jets +2. These two teams split the season series last year, with the Jets defeating the Bills in East Rutherford by three points, and the Bills defeating the Jets in Buffalo by eight points. I'm going to go ahead and buy into the hype. I think having just "good" quarterback play could potentially be the missing piece for New York. The Jets had an elite defense last year, one of the most underrated running back rooms in the league that now has Dalvin Cook and a wide receiving corps led by Garrett Wilson, who appears ready to step into superstardom. With the Jets having home-field advantage, I think they are ready to reintroduce themselves to the NFL world.
I'm confident in my pick, but if you want another expert opinion, Sportsline's R.J. White, who is an amazing 43-27-2 on his last 72 picks involving the Jets, has released his spread pick for tonight's game.
Over/Under 45.5
The total opened at 47.5 on May 11, but closed the day at 48.5. The next day, it fell to 47. On Aug. 28, it fell again to 46.5. Thursday, we saw a drop to 45.5.
The pick: Under 45.5. All the trends say to pick the Under here. The Bills were the best road Under team in 2022 and the Under has hit in three straight meetings between these squads. So I guess I will lean to the Under. I don't think Rogers and Josh Allen are going to enter into a shootout in Week 1. I do not believe the Jets defense will allow that.
Josh Allen props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -103, Under -133)
Passing yards: 249.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 34.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Passing completions: 21.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -137, Under +100)
Rushing yards: 36.5 (Over -131, Under -104)
Allen averaged 267.7 passing yards per game last year, but if my game script includes the Under and the Jets winning, I have to lean Under on his passing yards number. Allen failed to throw multiple touchdowns in just five games last year. Two of those five games were against the Jets, so I'll stay away from that prop. Give me the Over on Allen's passing completions number, the Under on his longest completion and him to throw one interception. That's kind of juicy, so I would throw it into a same-game parlay instead of just betting the INT straight-up.
Allen's rushing yards number is something a lot of people like to look at. Give me the Over on that number. He crossed 40 yards rushing in 11 games last year.
Aaron Rodgers props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +110, Under -151)
Passing yards: 234.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 33.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
Passing completions: 21.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
Longest passing completion: 34.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +108, Under -148)
I won't bet Rodgers' passing touchdown number, but the Over +110 is definitely intriguing. That's the lean. I'll take the Over on passing yards, but will probably stay away from the passing attempts and completions. We don't know how Rodgers is going to look in this system with these new weapons. If you want to take a flier on Rodgers to throw an interception, go for it. I will not -- even after he threw 12 last year.
Props to consider
Garrett Wilson receiving yards: Over 67.5 (-119). I'll bite. Wilson crossed this number in eight games last year with virtually no quarterback -- including in both games vs. Buffalo!
Deonte Harty total receptions: Over 1.5 (-129). Maybe this is a bit of a flier, but these are the fliers I like to take early in the season. Harty was an offseason addition for Buffalo and he's averaged about 16 receptions per season, but he could be in line for some action with his new team. Harty to record just two receptions I like.
Damien Harris rushing yards: Over 24.5 (-117). We have no idea how the Bills' backfield is going to shake out, and 24.5 feels like too low of a line for someone who could end up playing a major role in the run game. I say "major role" loosely, but Harris could clear 25 yards.
