Bills vs. Cowboys odds, line: 2019 Thanksgiving Day NFL picks, predictions from top-rated model on 93-63 run

The Cowboys hope their traditional Thanksgiving home date can help them right the ship when Dallas hosts the Buffalo Bills on Thursday. The 6-5 Cowboys have yet to beat a team with a winning record, and it won't be easy against a stout Bills defense. But Dallas is 31-19-1 on the holiday as one of the main hosts since 1966 and boasts one of the league's top offenses featuring quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott. It's the second of three games on the 2019 Thanksgiving Day NFL schedule. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium. Dallas is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Cowboys odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 47, up from an open of 44.5. Before you make your Cowboys vs. Bills picks, listen to the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 13 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 31-20 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 93-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model has also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Cowboys vs. Bills. We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the NFL betting lines and trends for Bills vs. Cowboys:  

  • Bills vs. Cowboys spread: Dallas -6.5
  • Bills vs. Cowboys over-under: 47
  • Bills vs. Cowboys money line: Dallas -300, Buffalo +245
  • Cowboys: WR Randall Cobb has 22 catches for 307 yards over the past three games.
  • Bills: WR John Brown has 14 receptions of at least 20 yards this season.

The model knows the Cowboys are 7-4 against the spread this season, but the teams they have beaten are a combined 16-49-1. Prescott leads the league's top passing offense at 433.4 yards per game. Wide receivers Amari Cooper (886 yards) and Michael Gallup (733) are the top targets, but slot man Randall Cobb plays a key role. He has 39 receptions for 581 yards and three touchdowns and makes the tough catches in traffic. Elliott has rushed for 919 rushing yards, but also has contributed 32 catches for 260 in the passing game. Tight ends Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin have combined for 62 catches and five TDs.

The Cowboys' defense is often overlooked, but it allows just 213.6 passing yards and 19.1 points per game. The pass rush can rattle quarterbacks, and Robert Quinn (9.5 sacks) and DeMarcus Lawrence (4.5) should be able to get to Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who has been brought down 23 times. Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie has broken up 10 passes and picked off one, while safety Xavier Woods has two interceptions and two forced fumbles. 

Dallas has several edges, but that doesn't mean it will cover the Cowboys vs. Bills spread during the 2019 Thanksgiving Day NFL schedule. 

The Bills are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games after allowing fewer than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Broncos managed just 85, and the defense allows an average of 104.4 per game. Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has struggled in recent weeks, averaging 3.1 yards per carry over the last three games, and Buffalo is stout up front. Jordan Phillips and Star Lotulelei clog the middle, with Trent Murphy, Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson and Ed Oliver providing the rush. Phillips has a team-high seven sacks, and Lawson has five.

The Bills are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games in November and have a potent running game that features Devin Singletary and Frank Gore, who moved to third on the league's all-time rushing list on Sunday. Buffalo averages 139.2 yards per game. Allen completes 60.2 percent of his passes and has thrown for 2,360 yards. The Bills also lead the NFL with a 29.2 kick return average, led by Andre Roberts

So who wins Bills vs. Cowboys as part of the NFL Thanksgiving Day 2019 schedule? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bills vs. Cowboys spread you should be all over Thursday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.

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