With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, we have our final "Thursday Night Football" game of the year, which sees Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns host Flacco's former team, the New York Jets.
Cleveland is amazingly still alive for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and is closing in on an AFC North title. New York is playing out the string to maneuver for whomever Aaron Rodgers decides he'll allow them to draft next year, assuming he doesn't force Joe Douglas to trade the pick for another of his former Packers teammates.
Still, there's plenty on the line, and plenty to discuss. Can the Browns keep space at the top of the conference, or will the Jets play spoiler? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Dec. 28 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium (Cleveland)
Stream the game here with Amazon Prime
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Browns -7.5; O/U 35 (via SportsLine consensus odds)
When the Jets have the ball
New York's Trevor Siemian-led offense was actually fairly successful last week against the Commanders, despite turning the ball over twice. New York piled up 381 yards, its most since Week 5 against Denver, thanks mostly to an outrageous 32-touch, 191-total-yard game from Breece Hall. It should be noted, though, that the Jets ran 90 (NINETY!) offensive plays on their 16 (SIXTEEN!) drives, meaning they did average just 4.2 yards per play against a unit that has allowed 5.9 per play (third-worst in the NFL) this year.
Needless to say, they are going to face a much different challenge on Thursday night in Cleveland. Cleveland leads the league in yards allowed per play and ranks second in points per drive, and is the only team in the league that has allowed a touchdown or field goal on less than a quarter of opponent possessions so far this season. All this despite facing the sixth-worst average starting field position, due to the offense's ineptitude for much of the season.
Siemian went un-sacked by Washington's non-existent pass rush last week, and still averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt, with one touchdown, one interception, and one lost fumble. He is likely to be under considerably more pressure from Myles Garrett and Co., and there is nothing we have seen in his career to date that would suggest he's equipped to handle that.
Instead, it will likely be left up to Hall to create yardage for himself against the Browns' at-times-suspect run defense. Cleveland has yielded the league's second-most yards after contact per rush, according to Tru Media, as well as the fifth-highest rate of explosive runs. That's Hall's game, especially with the offensive line and quarterback position in its current condition. If he can rip off some long gains, the Jets have a shot. If he can't, they probably don't.
When the Browns have the ball
This is technically a revenge game for Joe Flacco, who has given the Browns' offense new life since taking over under center, even if his routine has been a bit of a high-wire act. Flacco has completed only 59.4% of his passes, but has averaged 7.5 yards per attempt -- the best mark of his career in any season where he's played more than two games. He has 10 touchdown passes through four contests, but he's also tossed seven interceptions.
Still, Cleveland has pivoted to a pass-heavy approach since he took over, and it actually fits the team's current personnel better than the standard, run-centric approach they have typically favored under Kevin Stefanski. With myriad injuries along the offensive line (the Browns are working with their fourth- and fifth-string tackles, among other things) and obviously at running back (Nick Chubb), the strength of the offense lies in the skill sets of Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and (to a lesser extent) Elijah Moore. So the Browns have let Flacco sling it.
The issue with all that is that it's the exact opposite of what you want to do against the Jets. New York's pass defense remains stifling, with Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter forming arguably the best cornerback group in the NFL. Cleveland can move Cooper around to avoid Gardner because New York plays sides with its corners and does not shadow, but this still seems like a matchup where more of the passing game should run through Njoku, who does most of his damage over the middle and up the seams.
The Jets will need to get to Flacco quickly, because he's gotten rid of the ball faster than the average QB this season (2.77 seconds, per Tru Media). With Cleveland's offensive line in tatters, the Jets' best bet is to get after Flacco repeatedly and force him into mistakes. As previously mentioned, he has already thrown seven picks, and according to Pro Football Focus he's tied for fourth in turnover-worthy plays since taking over under center.
Prediction: Browns 16, Jets 10
Perhaps the Browns won't find much success against this Jets defense -- at least in comparison to the heroics we have seen from them lately. But the Jets seem even less likely to find their way offensively, so Cleveland has the advantage here.
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 17.
