We have a pivotal AFC West matchup on deck for us when we put a bow on today's action in Week 10 when the Kansas City Chiefs head to Las Vegas to face the Raiders for "Sunday Night Football." The entire division enters this week with five wins on the season, while Kansas City is one game behind the Raiders and Chargers in the loss column for first place. With these teams all bunched up together, every game is going to carry some significant weight, especially when they go head-to-head, so this will certainly be appointment viewing as the playoff picture continues to crystalize.
In this space, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this prime-time matchup has in store for us. We'll be taking a look at how the lines have shifted throughout the week leading into Sunday night and, of course, give you our picks along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
The spread initially opened at Chiefs -3 but fell below the field goal threshold coming out of Sunday following Kansas City's win over the Packers and the Raiders' loss to New York. Now, it sits at Chiefs -2.5 on the eve of this head-to-head.
The pick: Raiders +2.5. The Raiders laid an egg against the Giants last week, but have been the better club on the season as a whole compared to Kansas City. Entering Week 10, the Chiefs defense is still struggling as it has allowed 6.3 yards per play. That unit will be put to the test Sunday when they face a Raiders offense that is averaging a league-best 7 yards per play over the last three weeks. With the offense rolling, getting 2.5 points with the Raiders at home seems like a solid lean.
Key trend: The Chiefs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games.
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The early look on this total opened at 54 but took a noticeable drop last Sunday all the way to 51. It has since rebounded some, moving as high as 52.5, and now stands at 52.
The pick: Over 52. Both of these offenses have the capability of putting up points, and each team will be throwing the kitchen sink out on the field to gain a pivotal win within the division. On the year, these clubs are averaging around 24 points per game. However, the Raiders have averaged nearly 27 points per game at home this season, while Kansas City has been able to find more scoring success on the road with 27.8 points per game away from Arrowhead Stadium. If those trends continue, that'll get us over this number.
Key trend: Over is 7-1 in Raiders' last eight home games.
Patrick Mahomes props
- Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +170, Under -210)
- Passing yards: 285.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Total interceptions: 0.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Completions: 26.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
- Passing attempts: 37.5 (Over -130, Under +100)
- Longest passing completion: 35.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Rushing yards: 23.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
This is a game where both quarterbacks will likely be asked to throw the ball a bunch. With the Raiders being a middle-of-the-road secondary (17th pass defense DVOA), I like the over on Mahomes' 26.5 completions at -105. He's gone over this total in five of his nine games played this season and the Raiders are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes over the last three weeks.
Derek Carr props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -180, Under +150)
- Passing yards: 289.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Total interceptions: 0.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
- Completions: 25.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Passing attempts: 36.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Longest passing completion: 38.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Rushing yards: 5.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Carr has gone over this passing yards prop in his past three games and has gone over it in six of his eight games played on the season. He'll take that into a game against a Kansas City defense that is allowing 7.8 yards per attempt entering Week 10 (30th in the NFL).
Player props to consider
Hunter Renfrow total receptions: Over 5.5 (-125). Renfrow continues to be a go-to option for Carr in the passing game, as the receiver has gone over this number in two straight games. In what is poised to be a pass-heavy game, Carr will certainly feed Renfrow plenty.
Mecole Hardman total receiving yards: Over 39.5 (-115). Hardman has gone over this number in three of his last five games and is averaging seven targets per game over that stretch. That volume in the passing game makes this number feel a bit too low.