The start of the NFL season is still more than five months away, but arguing about the NFL is a year-round sport and you'll be able to hold some healthy debates with your closest friends over the next few weeks now that the win totals have been released for all 32 teams.
The oddsmakers at BetMGM have released their over/under win totals for the 2024 season and in news that probably won't surprise you, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are tied for the highest projected win total in the NFL at 11.5.
Here are a few nuggets from all the win totals.
- Oddsmakers love America's team. There are a total of eight teams that have a double-digit win total and of those eight, seven of them have played in at least one conference title game since 2020. The only team on the list that hasn't is the Cowboys, who have a win total of 10.5.
- No respect for several 2023 playoff teams. There are four playoff teams from last season who have an over/under lower than nine and those four teams are the Browns (8.5), Rams (8.5), Steelers (7.5) and Buccaneers (7.5). The Steelers and Browns play in arguably the toughest division in the NFL, so it's somewhat understandable that their win totals are low. On the Rams' end, they just lost their best defensive player (Aaron Donald) to retirement, so that probably doesn't help things. As for the Buccaneers, the oddsmakers seem to think that Tampa Bay will be taking a small step back.
- Lowest win total: Panthers. With an unproven quarterback in Bryce Young and a new coaching staff in place, it's not a huge surprise that the oddsmakers have no faith in the Panthers, who have the lowest win total in the NFL this year at 4.5.
Here's a look at the over/under win totals for all 32 teams.
| Team | Win total | Over juice | Under juice |
|---|---|---|---|
6.5 | -140 | +115 | |
9.5 | -130 | +110 | |
11.5 | +125 | -150 | |
10.5 | -120 | +100 | |
4.5 | -110 | -110 | |
8.5 | -110 | -110 | |
10.5 | -125 | +105 | |
8.5 | -105 | -115 | |
10.5 | +100 | -120 | |
5.5 | -145 | +120 | |
10.5 | +100 | -120 | |
9.5 | -130 | +110 | |
9.5 | +100 | -120 | |
8.5 | +120 | -145 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 | -115 | -105 |
11.5 | -120 | +100 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 | -145 | +120 |
8.5 | -140 | +115 | |
8.5 | -125 | +105 | |
9.5 | -140 | +115 | |
6.5 | -140 | +115 | |
5.5 | +115 | -140 | |
7.5 | -130 | +110 | |
6.5 | +110 | -130 | |
9.5 | +120 | -145 | |
10.5 | +100 | -120 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | -165 | +140 |
11.5 | +105 | -125 | |
7.5 | -125 | +105 | |
7.5 | -140 | +115 | |
6.5 | +115 | -140 | |
6.5 | -130 | +110 |
Now that we have the totals, it's time to figure where the oddsmakers went wrong, so I'm going to give you the five bets that I like the most right now.
Steelers over 7.5 (-165)
2023 record: 10-7
Mike Tomlin has been the Steelers coach since 2007 and in the 17 seasons since then, he has a NEVER had a losing record, so I'm not going to bet against him now. Tomlin managed to get the Steelers to 10 wins last season, which was a minor miracle considering the team's quarterback situation. Russell Wilson might not be the Russell Wilson of old anymore, but he still feels like an upgrade over anything Pittsburgh had at QB last year.
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Saints over 7.5 (-130)
2023 record: 9-8
Derek Carr didn't look completely comfortable running the Saints offense during his first year with the team, but despite that, New Orleans still managed to win nine games. The Saints play in arguably the weakest division in the NFL and if they can go 4-2 in the NFC South like they did last season, that would get them halfway to hitting their over. The Saints also have the easiest strength of schedule in 2024 based on their opponents' winning percentage from 2023.
Rams over 8.5 (-125)
2023 record: 10-7
The loss of Aaron Donald will sting on defense, but the Rams could make up for that by fielding one of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL. With new stars like Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, it felt like coach Sean McVay was just starting to scratch the surface of what his team can do on offense. If Matthew Stafford can stay healthy, there's no reason this team can't win 10 games for the second straight season.
Falcons under 9.5 (+110)
2023 record: 7-10
No NFC South team has hit the double-digit win mark over the past two seasons and I don't expect that to change this year. Yes, the Falcons did add Kirk Cousins, but remember, he's coming off a torn Achilles, so it wouldn't be surprising if he looks a little rusty coming out of the gate to start the 2024 season. Although I have the Falcons hitting the under here, that doesn't mean they can't make the playoffs. This team could easily win the NFC South with a 9-8 record like the Buccaneers did in 20223.
Eagles under 10.5 (-120)
2023 record: 11-6
The Eagle totally collapsed down the stretch last season, going 1-6 in their final seven games, including their wild-card playoff loss to the Buccaneers. The addition of Saquon Barkley definitely makes this team better, but the schedule won't be easy. In 2024, the Eagles will play 11 of their 17 games against teams that finished with a winning record last season and that includes playing every team in the AFC North. The retirement of Jason Kelce is also a loss that might not be easy to bounce back from.
