Three of the four teams I have projected into the College Football Playoff were on the road this week, which raised the possibility of an upheaval in those projections. That did not come to pass, even though every team was tested except Alabama, which throttled Vanderbilt 59-0.
Clemson struggled early with Boston College before pulling away while USC and Oklahoma survived tougher than expected tests at Cal and Baylor.
So, there is no change to the CFP projections this week, but there are once again changes to the New Year's Six games. TCU went to Stillwater, Oklahoma, and hammered Oklahoma State, which dropped the Cowboys out of the Cotton Bowl projection. They were replaced by the Horned Frogs.
Also, Florida State, playing its first game in three weeks and first with new quarterback James Blackman, lost at home to NC State. The Seminoles are 0-2 with difficult games ahead with Clemson, Miami, Louisville and Florida. It seems very unlikely that FSU can now put together a good enough record to play in one of the New Year's Six games. The Seminoles have dropped out of the Orange Bowl projection and been replaced by Louisville. The last time FSU played in a bowl game that is not currently affiliated with the CFP was in 2011.
2018 College Football Playoff
| Date | Game / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 8 | National Championship | 8 p.m. | Title game | Semifinal winners |
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | 5 p.m. | Semifinal | (2) Clemson vs. (3) USC |
Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl | 8:45 p.m. | Semifinal | (1) Alabama vs. (4) Oklahoma |
Selection committee bowl games
| Date | Game / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Peach | 12:30 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | Georgia vs. Wisconsin |
Dec. 30 | Fiesta | 4 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | Washington vs. San Diego State |
Dec. 30 | Orange | 8 p.m. | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND | Louisville vs. Ohio State |
Dec. 29 | Cotton | 8:30 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | TCU vs. Penn State |
Texas Tech's victory at Houston adds one more team to the Big 12's list of projected bowl-eligible teams. I am still projecting that league to come up two teams short of filling its contracts.
The Big Ten is very strong in APR, which is what is used to decide which 5-7 teams get to play in bowl games, if needed. This week, I am projecting only 75 eligible teams for 78 spots in bowl games, which means that three 5-7 teams would get to play in the postseason. In this projection, all of those teams come from the Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan State and Nebraska are all projected in bowl games at 5-7, while another Big Ten team (Maryland) just misses the cut.
Click here for my entire slate of updated bowl projections after Week 4.
