Three weeks in a row now, an unranked team has knocked off a heavily favored top-10 opponent. Will Week 10 of the college football season make it four in a row? Though the top four teams in the country are off this week, there are plenty of opportunities for chaos to happen around the landscape. This week, we're focusing on some home favorites who may be in trouble, as well as a top-10 matchup with major implications.
Each week, I'll give you the top five upset alert games based on matchups, injuries/suspensions and other factors. But in the spirit of the upset, I generally avoid games where lines are within a touchdown, though there will be some exceptions. Similarly, I'll only go with moneyline picks when the payout is around 2:1 -- maybe a little less, definitely when it's more.
Week 9 results
ATS: 2-2
SU: 4-0
ML: 1-0
Overall results
ATS: 13-12
SU: 17-7
ML: 6-9
Georgia Southern at No. 20 Appalachian State
When: Thursday, 8 p.m. ET | Where: Boone, North Carolina | Line: Appalachian State -16.5
Why it's listed: Ask Appalachian State about the perils of playing a triple option team on a short week when you're ranked. The Mountaineers lost 34-14 at Georgia Southern a year ago on a Thursday night when they were No. 25.
Georgia Southern's key to the game: The Eagles are finally at full strength offensively. There's no real secret as to what they're going to do offensively, which is run the ball. Quarterback Shai Werts is healthy and running back Wesley Kennedy is back from an academic suspension and coming off of back-to-back 100-yard games. Add in leading rusher J.D. King, and this backfield is loaded again.
Appalachian State's key to the game: Conversely, Appalachian State has one of the Sun Belt's top rushing defenses. Again, there's not much mistaking what the Eagles are going to do, it's a matter of whether you can stop it. This type of offense is either successful or it isn't, so there aren't a lot of adjustments you can make in-game. We'll probably find out in the first quarter or so whether the Mountaineers are going to make quick work of Georgia Southern or if it'll be a long night.
Pick: Appalachian State should be motivated from last season's upset, so I'll take them straight up at home. But given the combination of a healthy Georgia Southern backfield and some inclement weather in the forecast, this one is probably ugly. ATS: Georgia Southern; SU: Appalachian State
Virginia Tech at No. 16 Notre Dame
When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET | Where: South Bend, Indiana | Line: Notre Dame -17.5
Why it's listed: Virginia Tech is eight points away from being 6-1 and 19 points away from being 3-5. Few teams skirt the line as close as the Hokies. But for as much flak as coach Justin Fuente has (rightfully) received, his team is 5-2 and the offense has been humming lately; only Clemson and Louisville have more touchdowns in the ACC since October. Can it carry over to its toughest game of the year?
Virginia Tech's key to the game: Quarterback Hendon Hooker is apparently good to go after suffering a knee injury against North Carolina two weeks ago. The open week came at an opportune time, and the dual-threat could give the Irish defense some problems.
Notre Dame's key to the game: In its two losses, the Irish's problem has been finding offense. Granted, I'll give this team a bit of a pass since the Michigan game was played in heavy rain, but even against Georgia, finding a downfield passing attack was like pulling teeth. If you can't move the ball against the Hokies (11th in the ACC with 15 passing touchdowns allowed) you may never be able to.
Pick: The Irish haven't lost back-to-back games since they went 4-8 in 2016. Fuente may have figured out some things with his offense, but Notre Dame's defense is playing for pride, and the road win is going to be tough. ATS: Virginia Tech, SU: Notre Dame
No. 22 Kansas State at Kansas
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Lawrence, Kansas | Line: Kansas State -235, Kansas +188
Why it's listed: Kansas State is in a natural letdown spot after scoring that huge win against Oklahoma. Don't look now, but Kansas is playing much better since making the midseason change to offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon. The Jayhawks have some confidence now.
Kansas' key to the game: For as well as this offense has been playing of late, it's kind of surprising that running back Pooka Williams only has three rushing touchdowns. He's such a multi-tool athlete, and needs to have one of those games where he's the best player on the field. You can run on the Wildcats, too (which is why it was so head scratching that Lincoln Riley didn't utilize that more a week ago).
Kansas State's key to the game: That win over the Sooners was signature Bill Snyder football if I've ever seen it: possess the ball, don't turn it over, play good defense and force the opponent to come down to you. It's a different vibe this week going on the road against a rival, but the principles are the same. If Kansas forces the Wildcats to get into a shootout, it might be a bit problematic. I'm not sure this team can replicate a 48-41 win two weeks in a row.
Pick: The Jayhawks haven't won back-to-back conference games since 2008 -- which also happens to be the last time they won two conference games at all. Normally, I'll take the field, but Kansas is getting hot. I wasn't a fan of the Les Miles hire, but the guy seems to know what he's doing. And if anyone can break an inevitable streak, maybe it's him. Kansas +188
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 6 Florida
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Jacksonville, Florida | Moneyline: Georgia -245, Florida +195
Why it's listed: Remember, the spread, not the ranking, determines an upset. As such, we have the rare higher-ranked team dog with the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. The SEC East is up for grabs, and technically both of these teams are still in the playoff hunt. There's more on the line than just bragging rights.
Georgia's key to the game: Passing games can be woefully inconsistent when you have young wideouts. It's no surprise, then, that Georgia has been hit-or-miss in that department this year. There's no denying the talent, though, and this would be a key time for freshman George Pickens to have one of his better games. He's a field-flipper and a superb athlete.
Florida's key to the game: The Gators are as healthy as they've been in a while. Defensive starters Jonathan Greenard and Jabari Zuniga as well as wide receiver Kadarius Toney.are all expected to be back for this game. Greenard and Zuniga are big players along the defensive front, and Toney is maybe the fastest dude on the team. Those are key parts to get back for one of the biggest games of the year.
Pick: We know the SEC East is on the line here. Do you subscribe to the belief that Georgia is still the division's best team? Or is Florida perhaps the best one-loss team in the country? After two straight losses to the Bulldogs, the Gators are looking for revenge. This is a solid moneyline if you believe Florida is the best team in the East. Florida +195
Tulsa at Tulane
When: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET | Where: New Orleans, Louisiana | Line: Tulane -10.5
Why it's listed: Poor Tulsa. This team has been through the ringer. The Golden Hurricane could have (should have) wins against SMU and Memphis, both of whom are playing in primetime this Saturday, and hung with Cincinnati and Oklahoma State. They're better than 2-6 suggests. They aren't likely to make a bowl now, but I have to think one of these days they'll finally get that W.
Tulsa's key to the game: It's hard to gauge this team. There aren't many common themes in their six losses other than red zone offense. The Golden Hurricane have a hard time finishing drives, and eight games into the season there's probably nothing that changes that. But at some point, somebody on offense needs to take over and make some plays if the wins are going to follow.
Tulane's key to the game: Willie Fritz's offense is smoking. Only Navy has a better rushing attack in the AAC, and Tulane nearly knocked off the Midshipmen a week ago. But that's only because they had to come from behind. Slow starts have been an issue for this team, and if Tulsa gets an early jump, game on.
Pick: I want to take the Tulsa moneyline almost out of some eternal hope that this team finally gets over the hump. But you bet with your head, not your heart. The Green Wave are a sound team, and while Tulsa will play things close again, I can't convince myself that big win is coming this week. ATS: Tulsa; SU: Tulane
So what CFB picks can you make with confidence in Week 10, and which line is Vegas way off on? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,200 in profit over the past four seasons.
