The first week of SEC play dropped a bombshell on the college football world when Mississippi State smoked then-No. 6 and defending national champion LSU in Baton Rouge. The loss leaves a very thin margin for error for a Tigers team that is still on a quest to address massive roster and coaching turnover.
Elsewhere, Florida made a big statement with star quarterback Kyle Trask and tight end Kyle Pitts in Lane Kiffin's debut as the coach at Ole Miss. The Gators' defense, though, could be a concern after it gave up 613 yards to the Rebels' offense.
This week brings the heat with the "Deep South's Oldest Rivalry" between No. 7 Auburn and No. 4 Georgia in Athens. No. 2 Alabama will host No. 13 Texas A&M in the home-opener for the Crimson Tide.
What should you expect on Saturday in the SEC? Here are this week's picks straight up and against the spread.
Record straight up: 6-1
Record against the spread: 1-6
All lines courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook
No. 7 Auburn at No. 4 Georgia (-6.5): The wrong team is favored here. I don't buy that JT Daniels is 100% following his knee injury last season or that he has the same ceiling as he did prior to it. Whether it's Daniels or Stetson Bennett IV, Auburn's defense won't be threatened by an offense that struggled to find its sea legs. Auburn has its work cut out for it on offense, though. Quarterback Bo Nix looked better after some halftime adjustments last week, and there's no doubt that coach Gus Malzahn and offensive coordinator Chad Morris held back much of the offense against Kentucky. Take those points, but you won't need them. Auburn will win this game outright. Pick: Auburn (+6.5)
No. 13 Texas A&M at No. 2 Alabama (-17): Texas A&M is an offensive mess right now. Quarterback Kellen Mond couldn't get things going against Vanderbilt and, perhaps more concerning, is that the coaching staff didn't let him stretch the field much at all. If Jimbo Fisher and Co. can't trust Mond after three seasons of starting for the Aggies, that is a very bad sign. Crimson Tide quarterback Mac Jones looked on point all night against Missouri and will pick apart a defense that doesn't have the bodies to take all of Jones' weapons into account. Pick: Alabama (-17)
South Carolina at No. 3 Florida (-17.5): The Gators' defense was atrocious against Ole Miss … but Lane Kiffin is going to do that to a lot of defenses. Gamecocks quarterback Collin Hill doesn't exactly have the talent or weapons that Rebels' signal-caller Matt Corral has. Florida will make the Gamecocks have to score 40 to have a chance, and that won't happen. Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts have monster days en route to a win. Pick: Florida (-17.5)
Arkansas at No. 16 Mississippi State (-18): There won't be a Mississippi State letdown this week. Why? Because it wasn't just the system that shined against LSU, it was quarterback KJ Costello. His deep passes were on point for the entire contest against an LSU secondary that, while inexperienced, is still ultra-talented. Arkansas doesn't have anything close to that kind of talent on the back end. This will get ugly. Pick: Mississippi State (-18)
No. 20 LSU (-20.5) at Vanderbilt: Poor Vandy. It has to go out and face an angry Tigers team that is dejected and desperate. Have fun with that. I'm not the biggest fan of Tigers quarterback Myles Brennan after what we saw against Mississippi State, but a road trip to face Vanderbilt cures his ills. Expect the Tigers to keep it simple, find some things that click within the offense and keep the starters in later than they normally would against lesser teams. Pick: LSU (-20.5)
Missouri at No. 21 Tennessee (-11.5): The Vols escaped the clutches of South Carolina last weekend and kickoff their home slate on Saturday against a Missouri squad that got torched by Alabama last weekend. I'm a low-ceiling, high-floor guy regarding Tennessee, and they showed that last week in having moments of brilliance and moments of concern throughout the contest. You'll see that this week. The Tigers aren't world-beaters by any stretch of the imagination, but running back Larry Rountree III and quarterback Shawn Robinson got enough to build on last week to be able to hang with Tennessee. Expect this one to be sloppy and close deep into the fourth quarter with the Vols squeaking out a win … but not a cover. Pick: Missouri (+11.5)
Ole Miss at Kentucky (-6.5): Why doesn't Ole Miss get any respect? The Rebels' offense was dealing last week against Florida, and it's not like Kentucky's defense looked stellar in the loss at Auburn. Do you trust Wildcats' quarterback Terry Wilson and that offensive line -- which was just average last week -- to keep up in a shootout? I don't. Kiffin will get his first win as the coach of the Rebels' in upset fashion. Pick: Ole Miss (+6.5)
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 5, and which SEC team will pull off a shocking upset? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,000 in profit over the past four-plus seasons -- and find out.
