Pick Six: Iowa State presents No. 4 TCU with a tougher-than-expected test

I hope you followed all my picks last week because, if you did, you had a perfect week. That's right, Pick Six went 6-0 last week, which is the goal every week. That's what trusting the process is all about.

Games of the Week

No. 2 Penn State at No. 6 Ohio State (Under 57): I'm not a fan of the line in this game. Ohio State opened as a 7.5-point favorite, that was quickly bet down to 5.5, and now it's back up to 6.5 points. If I were to take a side here, I lean toward Penn State and the points, but I'm a much bigger fan of the under.

One of the reasons I feel this way is that, while Ohio State's offense has been lighting it up as of late, it has been doing it against inferior competition. J.T. Barrett drives the offense, and against top defenses during his career he just hasn't been nearly as efficient, and Penn State is one of the best defenses in the country. On the other side of the coin, as explosive as Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley have been, the Buckeyes defense should keep things from getting out of control. So I'm expecting a tight, lower-scoring game between these two. Ohio State 27, Penn State 24

No. 14 NC State at No. 9 Notre Dame (-7): All right, so I'm buying in on Notre Dame. I had been skeptical before last week's dismantling of USC, and even if I believe NC State has a better defensive line than the Trojans, the Irish will find success in their run game.

As for NC State, the Wolfpack are off to a great start. They've picked up key wins against teams like Louisville and Florida State, but the truth is those two names carry more weight than the actual teams they're attached to this season. I'm a bit wary of NC State having an extra week of prep, and the possibility of an Irish letdown after a big victory, but I just think the Domers are the better team here. Notre Dame 34, NC State 21

Lock of the Week

Louisiana Tech (-13) at Rice: Sometimes you just want to count on bad teams being bad, and Rice fits that bill. The Owls are only 2-5 against the spread this season overall but that includes an 0-3 mark at home. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their past five against losing teams, but again, I'm not betting on the Bulldogs as much as I'm going against the Owls. Louisiana Tech 31, Rice 13

Underdog of the Week

No. 25 Iowa State (+6.5) vs. No. 4 TCU: Both of these teams have done well against the number this year. TCU is 5-2 ATS, while Iowa State is 5-1-1, but I've been impressed by the Cyclones at home this year. Also, TCU just hasn't been as great on a grass surface. The Frogs are 2-10 ATS in their past 12 on grass. Iowa State, meanwhile, is 10-2 ATS in its past 12 on a natural turf, and also 8-2 ATS in their past 10 at Jack Trice. I don't know if the Cyclones pull off another upset, but they're going to hang in this game. TCU 37, Iowa State 31

Over of the Week

UAB at Southern Miss (Over 51.5): In a week where there aren't a lot of overs to love, this is the one that grabs my attention. The number just seems a little too low considering the Eagles are scoring 29 points per game at home this year, and UAB has allowed 40.7 points per game on the road. I don't know if the Eagles will get that much, but I don't think they'll be too far off, and the Blazers will get their own as well. Southern Miss 38, UAB 21

Under of the Week

Texas at Baylor (Under 57): These are not your typical Big 12 offenses. As we saw last week in Texas' loss to Oklahoma State, the Longhorns defense is capable of slowing down a great offense, and it isn't facing one in Baylor this week. I see two teams who aren't explosive offensively, so I see a slower, plodding affair. Texas 24, Baylor 14