It's never too early to speculate.
Tony Watson has always been an awkward fit in the closer role. He thrived as a setup man, yes, but without the big swing-and-miss numbers normally required in the ninth inning. So we all figured coming into the year that he'd be on thin ice after compiling a 3.86 ERA in 25 appearances in the role last year.
It took a couple months, but Watson has settled into more of the same. His blown save Monday in which he allowed two earned runs on two hits was his third in nine appearances, his ERA rising from 0.73 to 4.03 during that stretch, and his 1.66 WHIP has been a problem all year. It's amazing he got away with it for this long.
The Pirates do have a better option in Felipe Rivero, and while it's true Rivero throws left-handed, so does Watson. He can ably fill the Rivero role, which we know because he already did back when Mark Melancon was still on board. Here's what Rivero has done this year:
Again, it's nothing more than speculation at this point, but in leagues where saves are gobbled up faster than they appear, here's your chance to get a leg up.
Shoot, if it's a categories league that rewards ERA and WHIP, Rivero doesn't even need saves to matter.
Koda Glover, RP, Nationals
2017 season: 6 SV, 2.20 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 16 1/3 IP, 2 BB, 15 K
This weekend: 3 SV, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 1/3 IP, 0 BB, 4 K
In shallower leagues where lower-end saves sources are always available on waivers, Koda Glover is beginning to stand out. The rookie has shown more stability than anyone else the Nationals have tried in the role this year, and given that they're as clear of a first-division ball club as you'll find in baseball right now, they should provide no shortage of opportunities. You still have to wonder if they'll trade for a more proven option at some point, but for now, Glover looks like a reliever you want in your lineup.
Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays
2017 season: .288 BA (163 AB), 12 HR, .918 OPS, 17 BB, 33 K
Last 13 games: .357 BA (42 AB), 6 HR, 1.314 OPS, 10 BB, 6 K
Smoak was my No. 1 sleeper hitter heading into Fantasy Week 9 (May 29-June 4), and he's already off to a good start, collecting three hits with a homer and four RBI Monday. The former top prospect is on a 38-homer, 108-RBI pace and is finally showing the potential that made him a top prospect oh so many years ago with an altered approach that has him attacking fastballs earlier in the count so he's not falling victim to offspeed stuff later.
Brad Peacock, RP, Astros
2017 season: 2-0, 2.13 ERA, 0.99 WHiP, 25 1/3 IP, 13 BB, 38 K
Monday at Twins: 4 2/3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings is not anyone's idea of a good start, and perhaps suggests Peacock is better left for a relief role, but look again: He had a sub-1.00 WHIP in this contest, and it wasn't even home runs that ruined him. Turn your attention to the eight strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings, which were much like his eight in 4 1/3 innings last time, and it's pretty clear he dominated. With Charlie Morton on the DL with a strained lat and the Astros beginning to hedge on Mike Fiers, Peacock should have plenty more opportunities to show off his revamped slider.
Steven Souza, OF, Rays
2017 season: .277 BA (173 AB), 8 HR, .874 OPS, 30 BB, 59 K
Last six games: .478 BA (23 AB), 3 HR, 1.528 OPS, 4 BB, 5 K
In his first two seasons, Souza had the look of a player whose high strikeout rate was simply too much to overcome, but it's down from 34.0 percent last year to 28.5 this year, which makes a difference. Heading into Monday's game, Souza was batting .262 with about the same BABIP that resulted in a .247 batting average last year. And while the BABIP itself seems unsustainable, Souza's high line-drive rate (sixth in the majors) explains how he's achieving it again. He has enough power and on-base ability to matter if he keeps that batting average over .260.
Tommy Pham, OF, Cardinals
2017 season: .333 BA (69 AB), 5 HR, 4 SB, 1.023 OPS, 9 BB, 19 K
Last five games: .471 BA (17 AB), 2 HR, 1 SB, 4 BB, 1 K
Randal Grichuk's demotion to Triple-A got all the headlines this weekend, but what didn't get much attention is that the Cardinals must really see something in Pham. The 29-year-old had a terrific weekend, even bringing his strikeout rate down to size, and his power has always gotten our attention. Between the majors and minors, he's up to nine home runs this year. He did get some prospect attention over the past couple years as a late bloomer with a impressive set of tools, so his 11 percent ownership rate is clearly selling him short.
Whit Merrifield, 2B, Royals
2017 season: .289 BA (121 AB), 6 HR, 5 SB, .829 OPS, 8 BB, 19 K
Last 14 games: .400 BA (50 AB), 3 HR, 3 SB, 1.094 OPS, 3 BB, 4 K
... So is Merrifield's 8 percent rate, though that's less because Merrifield is good than because 8 percent is unreasonably low. He's the unquestioned second baseman for the Royals and is riding an impressive 14-game hitting streak. His home run Monday gives him six now, which puts him on a 19-homer, 16-steal pace even though he wasn't getting regular playing time until May. And while those power numbers are probably too good to be true, it's worth noting he hit eight home runs in 274 at-bats before getting called up from Triple-A Omaha last year.
