There have not been a lot of changes at the top of the Dynasty tight end tiers since January. In fact, the names are the same in Tiers 1, 2, and 3. Those seven tight ends are the guys I feel pretty confident in being top-12 options this year and in 2024. After that, there are a lot of question marks. Dalton Kincaid sneaks into Tier 4 because of his youth and upside, but I'm very skeptical he'll make any Fantasy impact this year and I wouldn't bet on 2024. If Kincaid had fallen to Round 2, he'd be in Tier 5, which is by far the most interesting tier at this time.
Tier 5 includes Greg Dulcich, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer, and Trey McBride. I wrote about Okonkwo last week and we talked about him as a post-draft riser on Fantasy Football Today Dynasty yesterday. You can watch that here:
What Okonkwo shares with this group is a wide range of outcomes. Anyone in Tier 5 could leap into the top three tiers with a good half a season, but this is the same range that we saw names like Dawson Knox, Noah Fant, and Albert Okwuegbunam just one year ago. Okonkwo is my favorite of the group for 2023 and definitely has the best chance to be No. 1 or No. 2 on his team in targets, which is a great help for a breakout tight end candidate. Mayer and McBride may have to wait for Austin Hooper or Zach Ertz to get hurt or prove they can't play at a high level anymore before they get a 2023 shot. And LaPorta and Dulcich are near total wild cards with great chances to be the clear TE1 on their own team but with serious target competition at other positions.
Long term, I have Dulcich and Mayer with the most upside, but the way the Lions are talking about LaPorta he could join that group in short order. The truth is that I don't see a huge difference between these tight ends, that's why they are in the same tier for me. But if you're looking for the best value, Dynasty Trade Calculator suggests that is Trey McBride. The other four tight ends in this tier rank between TE9 (Dulcich) and TE16 (LaPorta) at DTC, which is close enough to where I have them. McBride is all the way down at TE22.
This reflects my current stance on rookie tight ends in Dynasty: Just wait 18 months and then trade for them. McBride was a borderline top 12 tight end a year ago but he only had 265 yards as a rookie, and Ertz is still on the Cardinals so people are losing interest. Remember, this is a Round 2 pick who had 1,121 yards in his final season at Colorado State. One year sitting behind Ertz didn't kill that upside and neither will a second.
It's also worth noting that Ertz could be traded before we ever get to the start of this season. He's a 32-year-old tight end with no guaranteed money beyond 2023 and the Cardinals do not appear to be contenders this year. If Ertz is gone, I'd imagine McBride's ranking would bounce right back to where it was a year ago, if not higher.
Here are my updated Dynasty tight end tiers:
