Fantasy Football 2023 Draft Prep: Sleepers 2.0 hails Anthony Richardson, JuJu Smith-Schuster as values

With NFC ADP as a guide, here are sleepers to consider on Draft Day

I don't know about you, but I like my sleepers to be so deep that other managers question what I'm doing. Sometimes my sleepers are veteran players who were once good but fell apart -- but can bounce back. Sometimes my sleepers are names no one else in my league has heard of -- but I have.

Above all, my goal with the sleepers I'll list below is to come up with a list of names who would otherwise be the hot waiver-wire names after the first week or two of the season.

Such was the case last year when Isaiah McKenzie was my favorite sleeper. He scored in Week 1, went bananas in Week 3, scored again in Week 4 ... and then let's not talk about what happened after that.

If you didn't love McKenzie's result, then maybe the two other sleepers I gave late last summer will encourage you. But don't expect any of my sleepers to be taken before 100th overall on Draft Day. For the purposes of this column, no player will have an ADP higher than 110.

ADP info is from the National Fantasy Football Championship drafts from July 1 to July 9 (35 drafts).

Quarterbacks

I intend on being bullish on Richardson because of what he's capable of succeeding at immediately in the NFL: running the ball. Richardson is a big dude with good speed and a total understanding of when to run and how to do well on the ground. Jalen Hurts' first year as a starter wasn't great as a passer (61.3% completion rate, 16 passing touchdowns) but he more than supplemented with his rushing (784 rush yards, 10 touchdowns) and finished as a top-12 quarterback on a per-game basis. His play-caller that year is Richardson's play-caller now -- Shane Steichen. Expect plenty of rushing baked into Indy's offense, and expect Richardson to be smart with the ball when throwing. He has a strong arm and he makes good decisions on where to throw; it's his accuracy that could cost him some turnovers.

NFC ADP: 117.29
I'd draft him: Around 90th overall with the goal of adding another quarterback as insurance at least two rounds later.

You would never wait until Round 10 to draft Smith if you only focused on what his last 11 months have been like. He was a top-10 finisher in Fantasy points per game and total Fantasy points (he was actually fifth) in 2022 and his team added some incredible pass-catching talent in the draft. Everything points to a philosophical change in how the Seahawks will operate in 2023, and the only evidence of Smith playing poorly is his three games against the 49ers; take those games away and he scored 20-plus in all but four. He's a fantastic low-risk, high-reward player with a top 10 early season projected schedule -- he doesn't even play the 49ers until Thanksgiving.

NFC ADP: 115.03
I'd draft him: After Round 10, preferably as a No. 2 quarterback. If I had to take him in a two-QB league, I'd make him my choice at about 13th off the board at his position.

Running backs

The only change for Penny's Fantasy value is the team he's playing with. He's still a fragile running back who seems unlikely to dominate carries, but he's supremely talented with some of the best advanced data metrics you could find for a running back. Now he'll work in an offense that has done especially well running the football and figures to be given some opportunities on running downs. Taking his health into consideration has already been done for you based on his low ADP -- that simply means Penny is at least an early-season starter for your squad. Anything after October is gravy!

NFC ADP: 110.63
I'd draft him: Around 100th overall.

Bigsby impressed in minicamp with his hands, which is good considering running backs can't do much else during non-padded drills. That's a bonus on top of Bigsby's physical style and elusiveness, talents the world knew he had coming out of Auburn. He's also been incredibly good in short-yardage situations, be it at the goal line or anywhere else on the field. There seems to be a movement toward taking touches off of Travis Etienne this season -- Etienne said himself that a committee approach "keeps the wear and tear off my body. I don't have to go and bang myself up each and every play. I've got someone else take a couple of hits off of me. I love that." If Bigsby can find a gig where he gets around eight touches per game (including some catches) as well as goal-line work, he could have some appeal as a stand-alone flex in deeper leagues with obvious lotto-ticket upside if Etienne misses a game or two.

NFC ADP: 139.51
I'd draft him: Around 120th overall.

Wide receivers

I doubt Smith-Schuster's ADP is anywhere near the end of Round 10 by the time we get to August, but for now he's become a forgotten man in Fantasy circles. Maybe forgotten is the wrong word -- maybe he's just sort of unwanted. He shouldn't be since he's in line to be the top target-getter for the Patriots. Replacing Jakobi Meyers as a middle-field target for Mac Jones is just the beginning -- last year Smith-Schuster posted three-year highs in Average Depth of Target (ADOT) with 7.35 and Yards After Catch per Reception (YAC/reception) with 5.96. He can build on those while seeing solid volume in an offense void of a true No. 1 wideout. That should lead to a safe PPR floor close to what he offered last year: 11.6 per game.

NFC ADP: 120.29
I'd draft him: After 90th overall.

The situation's great for Moore: He figures to be the Cardinals' primary slot receiver and short-area target. His ADOT figures to remain low, which means he could wind up being an easy outlet for any Arizona quarterback, especially those not named Kyler Murray. Moore also is good for some splash plays after the catch -- in each of the past two years he's averaged at least 6.85 YAC/reception. And if my projections are any indication, Arizona's offense figures to be in throw-mode a considerable amount given their weak-on-paper defense. Yes, there are injury issues, but when he's healthy he figures to deliver around 11.0 PPR points per game, just as he did last season -- and that includes a matchup he left very early.

NFC ADP: 138.00
I'd draft him: Around 120th overall.

Tight ends

Fantasy managers are probably uninterested in Schultz after he went from 11.8 PPR points per game in 2021 to 9.5 with the Cowboys in 2022. That stinks, but he still filled a role as a red-zone monster for the Cowboys as no one else had as many targets or touchdowns there as he did. Now he's on an offense with a much more unsettled receiving corps along with a rookie quarterback. The stars may have aligned for Schultz to see an uptick in production while also still serving as a red-zone attacker. Not bad for a 27-year-old who figures to be in the George Kittle role in the Texans' San Francisco-style offense and has finished as a top-9 tight end on a per-game basis in PPR in each of the past two seasons. His projected schedule is easy, too.

NFC ADP: 120.86
I'd draft him: Around 100th overall.

Two years ago McBride was named the top tight end in college football. One year ago he was miscast in an offense that was tailored for downfield receivers. This year he's assumed to be the top tight end in a friendlier West Coast offense that should at least give him significant snaps from game to game. It should put him on the map as a top three target-getter in Arizona with potential to crack the top two given how inconsistent Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore have been. I like the idea of stashing the powerful McBride and seeing how he does to open 2023.

NFC ADP: 238.09
I'd draft him: One of my last two picks.