Unless you've been hyper-focused on Fantasy Baseball, you already know that the star of the 2023 NFL rookie class is Bijan Robinson. A running back in the mold of Saquon Barkley, Robinson checks off every box and should be in line for a monster workload for at least the first five years of his career.
Whether you believe it or not, Robinson is going to be a first-round pick in your league. There's just too much potential for a 1,500-yard, 13-score campaign. You don't normally find guys like that after Round 1.
The rest of the class will underwhelm. Aside from Lions first-round running back Jahmyr Gibbs, no rookie should be expected to be even a top-65 pick in 2023 seasonal drafts.
That sounds bad, but it actually creates a slew of opportunities for savvy drafters. There's a silver lining to every rookie receiver, including all four first-rounders. At least one of them figures to outperform expectations (our bet is Jordan Addison for 2023). There's also a tight end you'll read about who could buck the trend of rookies at his position. You should definitely earmark a handful of rookies for your back half of the draft.
And then there are the quarterbacks. Three were top-four picks, but it's the one from that trio who went last -- Anthony Richardson -- who will capture the imagination of Fantasy managers and become the first of the group to go in drafts thanks to his rushing prowess.
Bottom line: This rookie group has some interesting players, but most will be late-rounders who could deliver immense returns. Read them. Learn them. Know them.
Players are listed by the order I would draft them.
- Ed. note: These are Dave's top rookies for 2023 seasonal PPR leagues starting with quarterbacks and followed by running backs on Wednesday, wide receivers on Thursday and tight ends on Friday.
Height 6-4 1/4 | Weight: 244 | Age by Week 1: 21 years old
As a prospect, Richardson has some obvious flaws: He struggled with his accuracy and was just a one-year collegiate starter after a tepid high-school career. But the stuff you care about for Fantasy is overwhelming: Richardson has a cannon for an arm, is capable of reading defenses and making good decisions with the ball, and is a fast, powerful, tough-to-take-down runner. In other words, he has the talent to be an amazing Fantasy quarterback, but also the downside to disappoint. The hope is that new Colts coach Shane Steichen replicates his success with Jalen Hurts and turns Richardson into a productive dual-threat quarterback with a high Fantasy floor from week to week. You can count on several Fantasy managers in every league eyeballing that potential.
Draft outlook: Richardson will be one of the first 12 quarterbacks taken in every league, but it's a byproduct of his immense upside and the multitude of quarterbacks who are good enough to start on your teams but not good enough to be a top-100 pick. Richardson should get taken before the end of Round 8.
Rookie-only draft outlook: In leagues that start one quarterback, Richardson will get snagged by the first manager who needs a passer but not a running back. That could happen as soon as third overall; don't expect him to reach 10th overall. There are compelling reasons to take him with the top pick in Superflex/two-QB drafts, but it's more likely he'll go second overall.
Height 5-10 1/8 | Weight: 204 | Age by Week 1: 22 years old
Let's get the obvious out of the way: Young will be among the shortest and lightest quarterbacks to ever start in the NFL. But other than those significant flaws, he's an outstanding passer complete with perfect throwing mechanics, advanced knowledge of reading defenses, terrific accuracy, and a knack for making things happen when plays break down. Frank Reich's offenses in Indianapolis weren't always heavily reliant on the quarterback, but a pass-leaning approach figures to be the case that could lead to modest numbers. It hurts Young's case that his receiving corps is a collective bunch of older or underachieving pass catchers along with second-round pick Jonathan Mingo. That will obviously change in the years ahead.
Draft outlook: No one should be compelled to take Young unless it's in a Superflex/two-QB league (where he's a top-20 type of option). There simply are too many veteran passers in better situations that managers would rather commit to.
Rookie-only draft outlook: He's the second-best Fantasy QB in the class only because he's not expected to run anywhere near as much as Richardson. Assume he'll go within 10 picks of Richardson (top-15 overall) in every one-QB league and more like within two picks of Richardson (top-5 overall) in every two-QB league.
Height 6-3 | Weight: 214 | Age by Halloween: 22 years old
The Texans' quarterback of the future is polished, accurate, smart and patient. He might also be mobile, as he claimed leading up to the draft that he wants to prove he can run the ball even though he wasn't asked to do so at Ohio State. Bottom line? Stroud is a huge upgrade for a franchise that's been without a proper steward for two seasons, and he has some Fantasy potential too. Houston's new offense will be a version of what the 49ers have run for years, meaning he'll throw a bunch of short passes at a high completion rate. In normal circumstances that would be great, but because the Texans' receiving corps is a mish-mosh of young unproven receivers and veteran, slower pass-grabbers, chances are Stroud's numbers will be just decent in 2022. In due time he'll be in a better position.
Draft outlook: Stroud won't get taken outside of two-QB leagues, where he'll be around the 20th passer off the board (probably after Young and definitely after Richardson). Other veteran QBs are safer bets with more upside.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Figure Stroud will be the third passer taken. It'll happen anywhere between ninth and 15th overall in one-QB leagues and fourth and 10th overall in Superflex/two-QB formats.
Height 6-4 | Weight: 229 | Age by Week 1: 24 years old
As long as Ryan Tannehill is active on the Titans' roster, or as long as the Titans are playoff contenders, Levis is unlikely to get many snaps. No one should be surprised considering his history -- Levis was a backup at Penn State before experiencing a good season and a bad season at Kentucky. There's no questioning his arm strength or his physicality, but mechanical issues, pressure sensitivity and a seeming lack of trust in how he reads the field all contributed to his lackluster play. Injuries also played a role in 2022. He's already a bit of a project for the Titans, which begs the question: Once he's ready to play, will the offense be tailored to his strengths, or will they still be a run-heavy offense that limits the numbers of its quarterback? There's so much risk with Levis.
Draft outlook: Levis won't get picked until late in Superflex/two-QB formats, which is to say he's unlikely to get picked at all in one-QB leagues. Only a change in Tannehill's status would alter that.
Rookie-only draft outlook: Levis might crawl into late Round 1 in Superflex/two-QB drafts, but it's more likely he finds Round 2. If you only start one passer, then Levis might not get taken until Round 3 as a low-risk value. Such is the case when an unpopular prospect lands with an offense that's been run-oriented for a long time.
Height 6-3 5/8 | Weight: 208 | Age by Week 1: 25 years old
Hooker's ability isn't in question -- he's got good mechanics, a strong arm, good pocket mobility, good accuracy and experience running multiple offenses. It's his timeline that should worry Fantasy managers. Already in a "redshirt" year, per Lions coach Dan Campbell, because of his recovery from a late-2022 ACL tear, the earliest we'll see Hooker is in 2024, and that's only if the Lions move on from Jared Goff. If that happens, Hooker will finally play at age 26 with minimal pro-level experience. And if Goff keeps his job in Detroit, Hooker may forever be a backup. Not great for a guy who threw 58 touchdowns in his last 24 college games.
Draft outlook: He's not expected to play. Don't draft him.
Rookie-only draft outlook: His long-term uncertainty should limit him to Round 3 or later regardless of the number of QBs you can start.
This article appears in the CBS Sports/Beckett Sports 2023 Fantasy Football Magazine. Pick up your copy at newsstands in mid-August.
