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USATSI

Things can feel pretty certain after Week 3, and I'd like t use this space to tell you they aren't. Last year at this time, neither Aaron Rodgers or Joe Burrow ranked as a top-18 quarterback. Jonathan Taylor was RB27 and James Conner was RB42. Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked as WR100 after three weeks, and A.J. Brown was WR69. 

We've learned a lot in the first three weeks, but we've also got a lot more left to learn. For that reason, I'm not dropping anyone I drafted in the first four rounds quite yet, and that includes D.J. Moore.

D.J. Moore is droppable

The Case: Moore has exactly six targets in each of the first three games of the season. He hasn't caught more than three passes in a game and he's yet to top 43 yards in a game. Week 3 was the worst of the games with Moore catching just one of his six targets for two yards. Laviska Shenault played his first game with the Panthers on Sunday and now has two more receiving yards on the season than Moore.

The Verdict: Don't believe it

Moore had a three-game stretch nearly this bad in the middle of 2021 (12-106-1 on 21 targets). He saw double-digit targets and scored double-digit Fantasy points in each of his next four games. He had a two-game stretch almost this bad in 2020 (4-73-0 on 9 targets) and scored 19 Fantasy points in each of his next two games.

I am very disturbed by Moore's lack of connection with Barker Mayfield and I'm quickly losing faith that the breakout I saw can happen. Still, Week 4 is way too early to drop a 25-year-old wide receiver who's totaled 3,00 yards since the start of 2019. I understand if you want to bench him, but I'm starting Moore at least one more week and I won't drop him before Week 7.

James Robinson is a must-start, top-15 RB

The Case: Robinson is averaging 87 yards per game and scored four touchdowns in the first three weeks of the season. He has 45 touches over the past two games combined and has clearly taken over the lead role for a Jacksonville team that is suddenly above .500 and looking like a contender in the AFC South. Regardless of the matchup, you should start him.

The Verdict: Believe it.

This Jacksonville team has beaten the Colts and Chargers, both presumed playoff teams, by a combined 52 points in the past two weeks. Their offense has looked above average and their defense has looked outright good. They'll face a bigger challenge in Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles, but I can't imagine sitting Robinson right now. His workload is that of a back you just don't question. 

Mark Andrews is the No.1 TE in Fantasy rest of season

The Case: Andrews was a full point per game better than every other tight end in 2021 and three points better than any tight end not names Travis Kelce. Through the first three weeks of 2021 he's outscored Kelce by 4.2 FPPG, and everyone else by nearly nine FPPG. There's just no reason to doubt it anymore, he's the best tight end in Fantasy Football and he was a steal in Round 2.

The Verdict: Believe it

Andrews leads all players, not tight ends but all players, in target share at 36.5%. His share of the Ravens' air yards (40.6%) is even larger. With Marquise Brown gone, Andrews is functioning as a true alpha No. 1. His quarterback is on fire, leading the league with 10 passing touchdowns and a 119 passer rating. They'll face a bigger challenge in Week 4 against the Bills, but the Patriots are a notoriously difficult matchup for tight ends and Andrews just put up 28.9 Fantasy points against them. He is unstoppable right now.

Romeo Doubs will be the best Packers' WR rest of season

The Case: The 2022 rookie class continues to impress and Doubs got in on the party in Week 3. He caught all eight of his targets for 73 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' Week 3 win over Tampa Bay. He now leads the packers in targets, catches, and yards and he's caught 87.5% of the passes thrown his way. There's no reason to expect Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, or anyone else to take 

The Verdict: Believe it

Honestly, if you gave me the field versus Doubs rest of the season, I'd probably have to bet on the field. But I'd certainly take Doubs over any individual Packer. the one edge Lazard had over the young guys was the trust of Ridgers, Doubs clearly has that himself now. As a rule, I'm betting on all the rookie breakouts and Doubs is currently available in 66% of CBS leagues. He should be one of the top priorities on the waiver wire, maybe No. 1.