MLB Opening Day is finally here. Hope is a good thing. Dare to dream. Pile on the cliches or movie references, as we're accepting everything here for this glorious day.
We'd also accept with wide open arms some winning wagers. The playoffs were fruitful last season (big shout-out to Trea Turner!), so let's keep things going with a productive Opening Day.
As always, these are my plays. You can ride with me by tailing, you can fade me or simply ignore. It's all your choice, as it's your money.
Cardinals (+196) at Dodgers (-240), 4:10 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: RHP Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 3.60) vs. RHP Miles Mikolas
The Cardinals were arguably the biggest disappointment in baseball last season, finishing in last place after many (though not myself!) had them winning the NL Central in the preseason. They revamped their problematic rotation in the offseason, though they send the returning Mikolas to the mound for this one, due in part to Sonny Gray's hamstring injury in camp.
The Dodgers are, well, the Dodgers.
The play: Dodgers total runs over 4.5 (-145)
Yeah, there's some juice on here but it's incredibly difficult for me to see a scenario where the Dodgers don't reach five runs in this one. Mikolas led the majors in hits allowed last season (226 in 201 1/3 innings) and led the NL in earned runs (107). He's now in his age-35 season. The Dodgers averaged 5.3 runs per game at home last season and that was without Shohei Ohtani. They scored five and 11, respectively, in their two South Korea games last week and now they are back home.
Again, it's just hard for me to see a scenario where the Dodgers don't get to five.
Cubs (+100) at Rangers (-120), 7:35 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: LHP Justin Steele vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
The defending champions must be included here. They are the champs! Plus, it's the only primetime game on the East Coast.
The Cubs come into 2024 with pretty high expectations themselves. Steele vs. Eovaldi is a matchup of All-Stars who are capable of going out and dominating on any given start, but I like this thing to go in a different direction.
The play: Total runs over 8 (-118)
Did you know the Cubs actually had a pretty high-powered offense last season? They finished third in the NL in runs scored behind just the Braves and Dodgers. They'll now have a much more efficient lineup with Craig Counsell filling out the card and Seiya Suzuki was out of his mind hot down the stretch (plus, he was equally hot this past spring, if you're into that sort of thing).
The Rangers led the AL in hits, runs, home runs, average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. They now get a full season of Evan Carter and are bringing up Wyatt Langford.
Oh and this game is in Arlington. The Rangers had a higher average by 22 points and higher OPS by 107 at home last season.
Overall, Globe Life Park saw the second-highest OPS and was second in runs scored last season, trailing only Coors Field.
A 5-3 final score gets us a push. It'll be higher than that.
Guardians (-160) at Athletics (+135), 10:07 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: RHP Shane Bieber vs. LHP Alex Wood
Expect this to be the most sparsely-attended home opener this season by a mile (and I'm not blaming the Oakland fans). There isn't a ton of intrigue in this one, but that shouldn't mean we ignore a good bet ...
The play: Shane Bieber over 17.5 outs recorded (-115)
We only need Bieber to complete six innings to get us home here. I don't think the Guardians offense is good enough to romp to the point that the Guards pull Bieber after five or something like that. Last season, he failed to complete the sixth inning just seven times out of 21 starts. He went six innings on Opening Day and seven innings in his next start.
Plus, he's already plenty stretched out. He went 5 2/3 innings in his third spring start and then six innings last time out. He's ready to go around seven here. We only need six.
Rockies (+205) at Diamondbacks (-250), 10:10 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: LHP Kyle Freeland vs. RHP Zac Gallen
The Rockies were one of the worst teams in baseball last season while the Diamondbacks were the NL champs. The Diamondbacks made some exciting additions in the offseason and get to open at home against the hapless Rockies.
The play: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-120)
The Rockies are notoriously bad at hitting away from Coors Field and the lineup this season doesn't look impressive at all. Gallen is an ace and the Diamondbacks have a good bullpen, even with closer Paul Sewald out.
There's a chance Freeland has a bounce-back year for the Rockies, as he's worked on mechanics, is healthy and has added a new pitch (a one-seam sinker) to his arsenal. His velocity was also said to be up this spring.
Still, he doesn't miss many bats the Diamondbacks have a well-rounded offense. With a little extra adrenaline being home for the first time since the World Series, I like a multi-run Snakes win.
For whatever it's worth, in Gallen's lone start at home against the Rockies last year, he threw six scoreless innings the Diamondbacks won 5-1. The opposing starter? Kyle Freeland.
