There are few forces more powerful in sports, or in life, than regression toward the mean. Simply put, if something extraordinary happens, you shouldn't count on it happening again. Instead, the smart money is on a return to normalcy.
If you like to wager gummi bears on sporting events, or on entire seasons' worth of events, it's imperative that you consider regression. A team that won 100 games, or lost 100 games, is unlikely to repeat that feat the following year.
The problem is that oddsmakers know all of this, all too well. Say a team won (or lost) more games than you would expect, based on factors such as run differential. Vegas and online sports books will bake that into their calculus when setting lines for the following year.
Bookmakers are getting more and more sophisticated with their analysis too. Teams might win or lose more games (or fewer) games than you'd expect based largely on how effectively that team clustered hits together when batting, or scattered them when pitching. That phenomenon is known as Cluster Luck, we use a formula called Base Runs to account for that kind of hit sequencing... and the sharps know all of this.
Welcome to my seventh annual MLB Over/Unders column. Every year, I go through betting lines for all 30 teams, searching for clubs that the sportsbooks might be overrating or underrating. It's a fun exercise to get ready for the upcoming season, and a fun way to pick up a few gummis when the conditions are just right.
This year's slate of betting lines is easily the toughest I've encountered in the seven years I've been doing this. The sharps have either figured out all of the advanced statistical concepts that can help bettors game the system, or they just visit Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and other analytical sites, run through their projected standings, and set their lines accordingly. Either way, even after weeks of research, I don't see any absolute slam-dunk picks this year.
But then there's this: Last year, as I do every year, I identified four teams you should bet on, with an additional three wagers for those of you who like to go bigger. My record on those seven combined picks. SEVEN AND OH, BABY!!!!!
What's that you say? When an extraordinary event happens, you should bet on regression toward the mean the next time?
Fine. Point taken. But I'll press on anyway, fighting the forces of regression, smarter oddsmakers, Jupiter's gravitational pull, and whatever else you want to throw this way.
(All lines taken from Bovada.com, as of March 14.)
Kansas City Royals: Under 71.5
This was a much tastier bet last month, when KC with an over/under number as high as 76.5 wins. Since reflecting on lines from a month ago does those of you reading this column absolutely no good, I'll play the hand in front of me right now.
It's still a good hand, because the Royals are going to be really bad. The Royals won 80 games last year, but there's lots of evidence to suggest they got lucky: They allowed 89 more runs than they scored, but bailed themselves with a sparkling 25-16 record in one-run games. While a killer bullpen can sometimes skew a team's record in tight games, the 2017 Royals didn't have their monster bullpen of old, suggesting that good fortune was smiling on them. By Base Runs, a stat that estimates how many runs (or wins) a team should have amassed based on all the major component statistics, KC should have won 72 games in 2017. In other words, this year's betting line assumes the Royals will be pretty much exactly as good as they were last year.
Thing is, they're very likely to be considerably worse. Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer were the team's two best players last year, each of them netting about four wins more than a replacement-level player; both are now gone. So too are Mike Minor, Joakim Soria, and Jason Vargas, the team's second-, fourth-, and fifth-best pitchers last year per Wins Above Replacement. The two best pitching holdovers from last year are Danny Duffy (who had his season sidetracked by both a DUI arrest and an elbow injury that required offseason surgery) and Jason Hammel (who posted a 5.29 ERA in a pitcher's park).
Add all that to the possibility that KC could trade their remaining key veterans (Kelvin Herrera, the recently re-signed Mike Moustakas) once they inevitably fall out of contention in June and July, and you might have the worst team in the entire American League. And a helluva fine under bet.
Philadelphia Phillies: Over 75.5
Let's talk about Jake Arrieta.
With glamour franchises like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox avoiding big-ticket free-agent signings in an attempt to stay under the luxury tax, Philly was able to swoop in and land Arrieta on a surprise three-year deal. In the process, the Phillies landed the 2015 Cy Young winner, a true ace when he's at his best. On paper, he fills a pressing need for the Phils, who were severely lacking in proven starting pitching behind their curveball-wielding beast Aaron Nola.
The problem is that the 2015 version of Arrieta is long gone. He lost 2.5 miles on his fastball from that season to 2017, with his home-run rate tripling over that same span. The cross-body delivery that made him unhittable in '15 also made his slider flatten out into a mashable mess last season, as the delicate mechanical process required to harness that cross-body motion started to abandon him.
The good news is that the Phillies were a solid bet to win 76-plus games even before they shelled out $75 million to bolster their collection of bearded hurlers. The addition of Carlos Santana adds power to a lineup that was already going to benefit from a full season of hit-it-a-mile younger Rhys Hoskins. Adding veteran relievers Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter signaled Philly's plan to compete in close games rather than play the role of helpless rebuilding club. Finally, in an era in which players peak around 24-25 (as opposed to around 27 as Bill James once surmised, or often considerably later during the PED era), younger teams offer lots of upside. Santana is the only projected member of the Phillies lineup who's older than 27.
Forget 76 wins. With a few breaks, the Phils could even hang around the fringes of this year's wild-card race.
Oakland Athletics: Over 74.5
Hey look, it's another lightly-regarded team flush with young talent that's being undervalued for your betting pleasure.
Optimism for the A's starts with the emergence of rookie corner-infield tandem of Matts Olson and Chapman. Olson was the American League version of Rhys Hoskins, the slugging first baseman cranked 24 homers over a 49-game span(!!!) from June 24 to September 22. His minor league resume includes a 37-homer campaign at Single-A in 2014, suggesting that his prodigious power output is for real. Chapman didn't quite light up scoreboards in the same way in his debut campaign. But combine his own big-time pop (Chapman went deep 36 times across the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2016) with terrific defense at third, and he could become a star in a hurry.
Dig deeper and you find multiple players with serious upside on (or near the big league roster). Talented hurlers Sean Manaea and (if healthy) Jharel Cotton. An age-27 bounceback season for Stephen Piscotty now that he's out of St. Louis. Top shortstop prospect Franklin Barreto, whenever the A's are ready to hand him an everyday job.
Oakland was easy money for me last year, criminally underrated at 66.5 wins (they won 75 and played like a 79-win team, per Base Runs). It might not be quite as easy this year. Still, this is a team with real .500 potential, so I'm back on the A's gummi bandwagon in 2018.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Over 73
Vegas loved the Buccos last year, pegging their over/under number at a gaudy 85.5. Pittsburgh didn't come anywhere close, with a 75-win performance constituting their worst effort in six years.
Now, the betting pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. A quick glance suggests that a 75-win team that just lost its two most recognizable players in Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole could be terrible this season. I'm not buying it. The combination of cheapie pickup Corey Dickerson and top outfield prospect Austin Meadows should make up for much of McCutchen's absence. As for Cole, we're talking about an ace in name only, coming off a season in which he flashed a 4.26 ERA with 31 homers allowed, all while toiling in one of baseball's most pitcher-friendly parks.
Four starting pitchers in their mid-20s offer breakout potential, with Jameson Taillon potentially one full healthy season away from stardom. Josh Bell gets to build on a promising rookie season, Starling Marte impressive speed and defense are on board for a whole season after an 80-game PED suspension last year, plus maybe this is finally the year that Gregory Polanco makes good on all those prophecies of greatness.
This isn't a great team by any means. But 75 wins this year will count just the same as fancier tidings. So Raise The Jolly Roger, and raise a glass to winning ugly.
Bonus picks
Four picks not enough? Here are three other bets I like, albeit a bit less than my top four.
Los Angeles Angels: Under 84.5
Start with the best player on the planet and baseball's most tantalizing two-way talent since Babe Ruth and the hype machine gets cranked to 11.
I'm not fully buying it. Even with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in the fold, even with the additions of infielders Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart, this is still a team rife with question marks. How many rotations feature more health-related question marks than the Halos' quintet of Ohtani, Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, and Matt Shoemaker? How much does Kinsler have left as he approaches his 36th birthday? How much regression is in store for Cozart after an out-of-nowhere career year? And have you seen how shaky that bullpen looks after a mysterious lack of offseason reinforcements?
In an American League pennant race that absolutely nosedives after the top four powerhouses, the Angels could hang in the playoff race for a while... and end the season right around .500.
Cincinnati Reds: Under 73.5
The sharps pegged Cincy at exactly the same number last year, which I happily jumped on for a comfortable win when the final tally read 70-92. I think the Reds could be a bit better this year, as kids like Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo get a full season's work. There was even some cursory effort to augment the bullpen, with veteran righty David Hernandez the best of the team's multiple relief additions.
Still, I pick seven teams (four best bets plus three bonus picks) every year, and in the toughest slate I've ever seen, a couple of the wins figure to be close calls. If the Reds go 73-89, bill me for your high-blood pressure tests, then pay me back immediately with your winnings.
Minnesota Twins: Over 82.5
Every year, my very sharp pal Adam Stein puts together a nifty spreadsheet that amalgamates all the betting lines from major sportsbooks, lines them up with the projection systems from the major analytical websites, and spits out win probabilities for every team. Every year, I lean heavily on all these data to inform my picks. And (almost) every year, I talk myself into one bet that the spreadsheet doesn't like.
The Twins are this year's version of that pick. The computers peg the Twins at 82 wins, meaning they not only don't offer that gap of two-plus games I like to see between projections and betting lines...they're actually projected to fare worse than the book believes.
Feh, I say! The Twins have a budding superstar in Byron Buxton whose .300/.347/.546 second half suggested his bat might soon catch up to his all-universe defense in center field. The rest of the roster looks improved from last year's 85-win squad too. The glamour teams' refusal to go over the luxury tax this offseason opened the door for smaller-revenue clubs to take advantage, and few teams were more opportunistic than Minnesota. Thirty-eight-homer man Logan Morrison, on a one-year deal? Yes please. Perennially effective righty Lance Lynn on an even more surprising one-year pact? Oui monsieur! Jake Odorizzi in an under-the-radar deal with the Rays to complement emerging potential ace Jose Berrios? An offseason bullpen shopping spree that reeled in Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, and Zach Duke? You betcha.
The Twins shocked the baseball world in 2017, going from 103 losses to a playoff berth in the span of a year. They've got the horses to make another run in 2018.
Now go out there and make it another 7-0 season. Just make sure to build a backyard shed big enough to store all those delicious gummi bears.
