I'm sure not that "everything ends badly, otherwise it wouldn't end" applies here, because it was entirely possible that Trea Turner kept cashing for us every single game through the end of the Phillies' run, whenever that might've been -- at least that was the case 24 hours ago. Still, it did end Thursday night. He picked up a single, but that alone wasn't enough and we're now 8-1 on Trea Turner overs this postseason in Best Bets. It was a hell of a run. Thanks, Trea.
Fortunately, the winning ways didn't come to an end with the Turner play. The Astros team total over and Jose Altuve's over both came in -- very early in the game, mind you -- so we had yet another profitable day.
The record here is now 25-11. I'm also on a roll with game picks on SportsLine. We'll be doing props or team totals here, as usual.
Astros (-110) at Rangers (-110), 5:07 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: RHP Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22) vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20)
It took going to Arlington to wake up the Astros' bats. In taking the Astros team total over in both Games 3 and 4, I mentioned how the offense has feasted on the road, notably in Globe Life Field. They've now scored 69 runs in their last six games in that ballpark. Insanity. The Rangers do hit better at home than on the road, but they've managed eight runs the past two games, which were started by the Astros' three and four starters. Now it's Verlander. Montgomery has been mostly excellent for the Rangers, though, so perhaps this one is more low-scoring?
The play: Astros over 4.5 runs (+110), Jose Altuve over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-140)
I'm actually not so sure about a more low-scoring affair. Verlander has looked much worse than his ERA indicates in his two playoff spots, as it feels like he got off easy in wiggling out of a jam or two. He's not the sure thing he used to be and the Rangers offense is potent. They just saw him. I also think the are the second-strongest bet among the two offenses in this one. The Astros are absolutely humming and I'm well beyond trying to figure out why the home/road thing is happening. It doesn't matter why. It just matters that it is, in fact, happening. Seeing Montgomery for the second time in a week in a place where they are now very comfortable hitting means I think they get to him. It's not like he's indestructible. He labored greatly in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Orioles even when spotted a big lead.
Altuve will be the catalyst, again. He cashed this prop in the first inning in Game 4 and I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat. All he needs to do is leadoff with a hit and then score and that's that. It was a double and run in Game 4. It could be a homer here. When he gets hot in the playoffs, he's hard to hold down. Even his outs are loud. In Game 3, he was 2 for 5 with a homer and two of his outs were deep flyouts. In Game 4, he was 3 for 4 and his one out was a hard grounder. Given that he's feeling it and just saw Montgomery, I love this play.
Looking for more analysis? SportsLine has you covered with expert picks throughout the 2023 MLB playoffs.
Phillies (-129) at Diamondbacks (+110), 8:07 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: LHP Christopher Sánchez (3-5, 3.44) vs. LHP Joe Mantiply (2-2, 4.62)
I'd be interested to see what the line on pitching changes would be in this one. The Diamondbacks are running a straight-up bullpen game. Now with their lead cut to 2-1 in the series instead of being able to run it to 3-0, I can't imagine Rob Thomson would allow Sánchez to pitch through trouble if the game is close, either. Sánchez is a fully capable starter who had some very good outings this year, most recently on Sept. 24 when he worked seven innings against the Mets, allowing two runs and striking out 10. The issue is he only threw nine pitches on Sept. 30 and hasn't appeared in the playoffs yet. It's hard telling how stretched out he still is for important game action. Taijuan Walker is available to get length in a piggyback role and no one in the bullpen should be gassed right now, either.
That's the long way of saying the main theme for this game is bullpenning.
The play: Bryce Harper over 0.5 walks (+105)
I'll probably regret not sticking with Trea, but his H+R+RBI total is again 2.5 and I don't love that extra unit in there.
I have no idea what to expect from the pitchers in the early innings we'll see from the Phillies and bullpen games are always predictable. I think at this point, the safest play is simply that Harper will, at some point, get a free pass. The uninspiring-in-the-playoffs Alec Bohm (.188/.297/.281 this postseason) and Bryson Stott (.226/.286/.323) have been hitting behind him. In his last 12 regular-season games, Harper walked 11 times. He didn't walk in Game 1 against the Marlins, but since then, Harper has drawn 11 walks in eight games. It only makes sense in a big spot with first base open to put him and, even if that isn't the case, he's a selective enough hitter against a walk-prone bullpen anyway. On that latter point, the D-backs relievers have walked 15 hitters in 29 innings this postseason (4.65 BB/9; the league average in the regular season for relievers was 3.69).
