Thanks to Tuesday night's wild-card win over the Twins, the New York Yankees have advanced to the ALDS, where they will take on the defending AL champion Cleveland Indians. Some reward for winning the Wild Card Game, huh? A meeting with the best team in the league. Hey, if you don't like it, win your division.
Anyway, the Indians had the AL's best record at 102-60 while the Yankees went 91-61, good for the circuit's fourth-best record. Here are the ALDS start times and pitching matchups:
| Date & Time | Channel | Ballpark | Pitching Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Game 1 | Thursday, Oct. 5 at 7:30pm ET | Fox Sports 1 | Progressive Field | |
Game 2 | Friday, Oct. 6 at 5:00pm ET | MLB Network | Progressive Field | |
Game 3 | Sunday, Oct. 8 at 7:30pm ET | Fox Sports 1 | Yankee Stadium | |
Game 4* | Monday, Oct. 9 at TBA | Fox Sports 1 | Yankee Stadium | Bauer or Josh Tomlin vs. Luis Severino |
Game 5* | Wednesday, Oct. 11 at TBA | Fox Sports 1 | Progressive Field | Kluber vs. TBA |
* Games 4 and 5 are if necessary in the best-of-five series
The Yankees and Indians are two of baseball's oldest and most storied franchises, so this is a great old-school matchup between two extremely fun and exciting clubs. Here are seven things to know about the ALDS:
The Indians won the season series
The Yankees and Indians played two series during the regular season, both in August, with the Indians winning five of the seven games. They outscored New York only 35-31, however, so it wasn't lopsided despite the win-loss record. Kluber threw a masterpiece in their first head-to-head meeting, allowing one run on three hits and a walk in a complete-game win on Aug. 3. He struck out 11.
Gray made his first start as a Yankee in that Aug. 3 game and allowed four runs (two earned) in six innings. The Yankees made three errors behind him in the first inning.
The Indians swept three games at Yankee Stadium from Aug. 28-30. The middle game of the series was rained out and made up as part of a doubleheader the next day. Those three wins at Yankee Stadium were wins No. 5, 6, and 7 during Cleveland's AL record 22-game winning streak.
They have recent postseason history
These two teams have been around forever, so of course they have some postseason history. Some of it is fairly recently, too. Here are the last three times these clubs have met in October.
- 1997 ALDS: Indians won in five games.
- 1998 ALCS: Yankees won in six games.
- 2007 ALDS: Indians win in four games.
That 1997 ALDS featured Sandy Alomar Jr. hitting a tying home run off Mariano Rivera in the eighth inning of Game 4. That was Rivera's first year as closer and, believe it or not, there were lots of questions about whether he could handle the ninth inning.
As for the 2007 ALDS, that was the infamous midge series. The flying insects rained down on Progressive Field in Game 2, contributing to Joba Chamberlain's eighth inning meltdown. He walked a batter, hit a batter and uncorked two wild pitches to allow the Indians to tie the game 1-1. They won the game in 11 innings.
Yankees manager Joe Torre later said he regretted not pulling the team off the field as midges swarmed in.
They had the two best run differentials in baseball
The Indians and Yankees outscored their opponents by more runs than every other team in the league. Here is the run differential leaderboard:
- Indians: +254
- Yankees: +198
- Astros: +196
- Dodgers: +190
- Diamondbacks: +153
Based on that run differential, the Indians were "expected" to go 107-55, a few games better than their actual 102-60 record. The Yankees, meanwhile, were "expected" to go 100-62 based on their run differential. They instead went 91-71, so quite a difference there. Here's the primary reason:
- Yankees in one-run games in 2017: 18-26
- Yankees in games decided by 5-plus runs in 2017: 37-13
The Yankees won a lot of blowouts and lost a lot of close one-run games, skewing their run differential. Still, you're doing something right if you outscore your opponents by 198 runs over the 162-game season.
The Yankees will be short in the bullpen in Game 1
Severino had a historically bad start in the wild-card game, allowing three runs in 1/3 of an inning. That forced Yankees manager Joe Girardi to go to his vaunted bullpen, and boy did they deliver: 8 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 13 K. Chad Green, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle did the heavy lifting before Aroldis Chapman closed things out it the ninth.
Because of their extended outings Tuesday, neither Green nor Robertson is expected to be available in Game 1 of the ALDS on Thursday. Green threw 41 pitches in two innings Tuesday while Robertson threw a career-high 52 pitches in a career-high 3 1/3 innings. Here's what Girardi said after the game:
"Greenie probably is going to need two days off. Robbie is probably going to need two days off. So there's your answer (about using the bullpen like that again). If you're playing four games in five nights, it's really difficult to do. You can do it probably two of the games of the (five in the ALDS), but you can't do it back to back. And a lot of times you can -- if you were to do it on Game 2, you probably can't even do it on Game 3, even with the off-day in between."
Kahnle threw only 29 pitches in his 2 1/3 innings -- that's the second-longest outing his career by innings pitched -- so I imagine he'll be available in Game 1 of the ALDS, even if only for an inning. The Yankees are blessed with a deep bullpen, so even with Green and Robertson out, they'll still have Kahnle, Dellin Betances and Adam Warren ready to go in Game 1. And of course Chapman as well. That's not a bad "Plan B" bullpen at all.
Still, the fact of the matter is Green and Robertson are New York's two best relievers, and since they are unavailable for Game 1, the Yankees' chances of winning the game go down.
Bauer, not Kluber, is starting Game 1
The Indians announced Tuesday that Bauer would start Game 1 rather than Kluber, arguably the AL Cy Young favorite and unarguably the best starter on the staff. Here's what manager Terry Francona had to say about that decision Tuesday, via MLB.com's Jordan Bastian:
"I think for a number of reasons, it makes good sense," Francona said. "Not that you go into a game thinking you're going to lose, but if you do, you have your ace coming back. The biggest thing was keeping him on his five-day. That was really important to Kluber. That was really the only way we could do it."
Long story short: The Indians believe Bauer is better able to come back on short rest in Game 4, if necessary. Kluber pitched on short rest three times in the postseason last year, including twice in the World Series, and the team doesn't want to ask him to do that again. At least not yet, so Bauer gets the ball in Game 1, allowing Kluber to start Game 2 and then a potential Game 5 on normal rest.
Similar to New York's bullpen situation, this move does decrease Cleveland's chances of winning Game 1 simply because Bauer is not as good as Kluber. The Indians are making the conscious decision to start Bauer over Kluber. It's ... interesting. Not sure I agree with it, though I understand it.
During the Division Series era, the team that wins Game 1 of the best-of-five series has gone on to win the series 71 percent of the time. It seems like starting the best pitcher in the league in Game 1 with a chance to take control of the series is a good idea. The Indians see it another way, obviously.
The Indians bullpen has a very Yankees vibe
For much of the season, the Indians carried six relievers who at one point spent time with the Yankees. Andrew Miller is the most notable. The others are Tyler Olson, Nick Goody, Zach McAllister, Boone Logan and Dan Otero. That sextet combined for 280 1/3 innings with a 2.41 ERA and +7.7 WAR in 2017. Take away Miller and it's still 216 2/3 innings with a 2.70 ERA and +4.6 WAR. The Indians received some very nice bullpen production from Yankees castoffs this year.
Logan will not be on the ALDS roster because he is rehabbing a lat injury, and Joe Noga of Cleveland.com reports Goody, McAllister and Otero will not be on the team's ALDS roster, either, though they're all healthy. So, among those six ex-Yankees relievers, only Miller and Olson will be in the bullpen. That doesn't take away from what Logan, Goody, McAllister and Otero did during the regular season. The Indians had the AL's best record and those guys helped make it happen.
Weather could be a factor
From the looks of things, the weather could be a factor for Game 2 in Cleveland on Friday afternoon. Here is the current weather report, via CBS Cleveland:
There is rain in the forecast pretty much all day Friday. If Game 2 were rained out, it would be played on Saturday, during the scheduled off-day. That would really screw things up for Cleveland's plan to pitch Kluber on normal rest in a potential Game 5. If Game 2 gets rained out and pushed back a day, Kluber would no longer be lined up for Game 5. He'd have to start on short rest.
Also, a potential Game 2 rainout would change the way Girardi and Francona manage their bullpens, because it would mean Games 2-4 would be played on three consecutive days. The built-in day of rest between Games 2 and 3 would be gone. There's a chance the weather will throw a wrench in each team's pitching plans and have a big impact on this ALDS matchup.
