Happy Tuesday gamblers, it's Chris Bengel back with you.
Many NFL teams are opening up training camp, so that means we can begin to shift our focus towards those NFL future bets. I've got the Bills winning the Super Bowl. I expect star quarterback Josh Allen to have another insane year and Buffalo shored up their defense with the signing of pass rusher Von Miller.
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Football is still a little ways off, though, so let's dive into the baseball picks!
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
- Key Trend: The Mariners are 5-0 in their last five games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- The Pick: Mariners (-160)
The Mariners have quietly been one of the biggest surprises in all of baseball. After getting swept by the Astros to start off the second half of the season, facing the Rangers should be just what the doctor ordered. Seattle defeated Texas 4-3 on Monday behind a stellar effort from Chris Flexen on the mound. I predict more of the same for the Mariners on Tuesday with struggling Rangers starting pitcher Dane Dunning on the bump.
The Rangers have lost the last 10 of Dunning's starts dating back to May 24. He has yielded at least three runs in three of his last five outings. In addition, the Mariners swept the Rangers during a four-game series prior to the All-Star break and scored at least six runs in three of those contests. I'm happy to fade Dunning him in this spot.
The Pick: Over 9.5 runs (+100): -- When you have two of the more high-powered offenses in the majors, the over is going to be the play. The Brewers have scored the 11th-most runs (442) while the Twins have tallied the 12th-most runs (438) throughout the 2022 season. In addition, both are also in the top 11 in terms of total bases, so there's a large possibility that this game could produce several run-scoring opportunities.
The Twins will be sending right-hander Dylan Bundy to the mound. He has accumulated a 4.71 ERA and had been pitching better before giving up seven runs over his last two starts against the White Sox and Rangers. On the other hand, Brewers starter Ethan Small is making just his second career start after lasting just 2 2/2 innings against the Cubs. It's a small sample size, but I'm comfortable being of the mindset that the Twins should be able to get some hits off of the young right-hander.
Key Trend: The over is 6-1-2 in the Brewers' last nine interleague home games against a team with a winning record
Yankees at Mets, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Taijuan Walker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115) -- Tuesday marks the start of another Subway Series, with this installment taking place in Queens. While the Yankees possess one of the league's most lethal offenses, I'm still confident taking Taijuan Walker's strikeout prop in this one.
Walker isn't typically a pitcher that has overpowering stuff, but getting five strikeouts is well within the realm of possibility. The Mets starter has registered at least five strikeouts in each of his last three starts. In addition, Walker has hit at least five strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. It also doesn't hurt that Walker has tossed at least six innings in each of his last eight starts, so even against the Yankees, this is an achievable number.
Key Trend: Walker has recorded at least five strikeouts in each of his last three starts