This has been an offseason of misses for the Toronto Blue Jays. They aggressively pursued Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but all three wound up elsewhere. Toronto then pivoted to second- and third-tier free agents like Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who raise the team's floor but don't raise the ceiling all that much, if at all.
On Wednesday, the Blue Jays finally connected with one of their big swings, and landed Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. The signing is not official yet and the financial terms are unconfirmed, but it'll be official soon enough and we'll get the contract details before long. Once the deal is done, Rodriguez will join a pitching staff that ranked second in baseball with a 113 ERA+ in 2023.
Rodriguez has a bit of an interesting backstory. He was a top setup man with the Chunichi Dragons in Japan for several years and he served as Cuba's No. 1 starter in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Rodriguez wanted to jump to MLB after the WBC but Chunichi would not let him out of his contract, so he sat out the season. The Dragons released Rodriguez early this offseason.
| IP | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021-22 Rodriguez | 149 1/3 | 2.29 | 1.17 | 25.9% | 10.8% | 0.60 |
2023 NPB average | -- | 3.19 | 1.21 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 0.78 |
Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball is in the middle of something of a dead ball era, though even compared to the pitcher-friendly league averages, Rodriguez was very good from 2021-22. He missed bats in a league that prioritizes contact and he kept the ball in the park. Yeah, he walked more than you'd like, but Rodriguez cut his walk rate from 12.1% in 2021 to 8.3% in 2022.
Sitting out the entire 2023 season is not ideal -- Rodriguez didn't spend the year on his couch, he trained and held showcases for scouts leading up to his free agency -- but it's easier to come back from a long layoff as a pitcher than as a hitter. The year away also gave Rodriguez time to heal up and get over any wear and tear (every pitcher could benefit from time off, physically).
Not much is known about how the Blue Jays will deploy Rodriguez or about Rodriguez in general. Here's what you need to know about Toronto's new right-hander and how they may use him, and how he fits their roster.
He's only 26
This is a pretty big deal. Rodriguez is 26 now and he'll turn 27 in March. He is much younger than most MLB free agents and that, in theory, means he has more peak years ahead of him. That's what made Yamamoto so appealing. In addition to being so talented, Yamamoto is only 25. He has so many of what should be his best years ahead of him. That doesn't apply to most free agents.
It does apply to Rodriguez though. The reported contact terms -- four years and $32 million per MLB.com's Francys Romero -- lock up Rodriguez for his age 27-30 seasons. The Blue Jays are buying peak production years, and the contract is short enough that Rodriguez can re-enter free agency at age 30, when he should still be able to secure nice payday.
Point is, the Blue Jays did not sign a 30-something free agent who is approaching (or already in) his decline years. They landed a prime-aged player with a history of success in the highest non-MLB league in the world. What figure to be Rodriguez's best years align with the rest of Toronto's core, namely Bo Bichette, Kevin Gausman, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
It's worth trying him as a starter in spring training
We don't yet know how the Blue Jays will use Rodriguez, though it's been reported he wants to start, and Toronto is well-positioned to give him that opportunity. The top of their rotation is very strong. One of the best in the game:
1. RHP Kevin Gausman
2. RHP Chris Bassitt
3. RHP José Berríos
4. LHP Yusei Kikuchi
A bona fide ace in Gausman, two steady innings guys in Bassitt and Berríos, and the upside of Kikuchi. Also, all four of those guys threw at least 165 innings in 2023, and Bassitt, Berríos, and Gausman are all top 10 in innings since 2021. Pitchers are durable up until they're not, but the Blue Jays can reasonably count on those guys to take the ball every fifth day.
The rotation behind those four? That's less settled. The depth chart looks like this:
5. RHP Alek Manoah
6. RHP Mitch White
7. RHP Bowden Francis
8. LHP Ricky Tiedemann
A year ago Manoah was coming off a third-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting. Now he's essentially a reclamation project, one who spend a lot of time in the minors last year and received an injection for a shoulder issue in October. As far as No. 5 starter dice rolls go, Manoah is better than most, though no one really knows which Manoah the Blue Jays will get in 2024.
White and Francis are depth arms -- Francis had some small sample size success in the MLB bullpen in 2023 -- and Tiedemann is Toronto's top prospect. He reached Triple-A last year and has big upside. He was also limited to 62 innings by a shoulder issue and has thrown only 47 innings above Single-A. Tiedemann could benefit from more minor-league seasoning.
Getting back to Rodriguez, he wants to start and the Blue Jays could give him a chance to start in camp, and let him compete with Manoah for the No. 5 spot. A little internal competition isn't a bad thing. Also, because Toronto's top four starters are so reliable, they can more easily navigate Rodriguez being a five and fly starter every fifth day, if that's what he is.
Also, Rodriguez's bullpen experience makes him a perfect candidate to be the "No. 5 starter who moves into the postseason bullpen and impacts games that way" guy, assuming the Blue Jays qualify. Kenta Maeda did that for the Los Angeles Dodgers for a few years. The Texas Rangers used Jon Gray that way last year, though that was because of injury, not a stacked rotation.
It is much easier to stretch a pitcher out to start in spring training and then shift him into a relief role than it is go from reliever to starter later in the season. The Blue Jays have the perfect rotation makeup to roll the dice on Rodriguez as their No. 5 starter. They can see what sort of upside he provides as a starter and also let him push Manoah for a roster spot.
If he can't start, Rodriguez should be a very good reliever
To be clear, it is not a given Rodriguez can start. He did work as a starter early in his career in Japan and it didn't go well, though he's remade his arsenal since then, and perhaps he's in a better place to try starting now given his experience level. It's worth finding out in spring training, right? Worst case scenario, Rodriguez looks bad as a starter, and you put him back in the bullpen.
Here's what FanGraphs says about Rodriguez's arsenal:
Rodriguez's fastball underwent a nearly three-tick velocity bump in 2022, going from sitting 92-93 mph to sitting 94-96 and touching 100 in a relief capacity for the Chunichi Dragons. The added velocity came with (and was likely because of) a full-time move to the bullpen, and Rodriguez posted a 1.15 ERA in his 54 innings. Then Rodriguez pitched for Cuba's 2023 WBC team as a starter. After a rough-looking February tuneup before the actual competition began, he was nasty across 65-to-70 pitches in each of his two WBC starts, when Yariel sat 95, touched 98, and bent in a good vertical breaking ball in the 83-87 mph range ... As a relief candidate, Rodriguez is exciting and has the stuff to pitch in higher-leverage innings. His vertical fastball/breaking ball combo looks similar to Peter Fairbanks' stuff (minus a few ticks of velo) and is on par with the second- or third- best reliever coming out of a contender's bullpen.
WBC pitch data tells us Rodriguez, even while working as a starter with Cuba, held his mid-90s velocity deep into his starts, and that he can really spin his breaking ball, which looks slider-ish at times and curveball-ish at others. Rodriguez being a slightly lesser version of Pete Fairbanks (who regularly tops 100 mph) would be an incredible outcome for the Blue Jays.
Rodriguez's reported contract is essentially reliever money. Four years at $8 million a year? That buys you a setup man in free agency these days. The scouting reports and pitch data suggest Rodriguez should be at least a bat-missing fastball/breaking ball reliever. If he can start, great, that makes a good signing even better for Toronto. If not, a high-leverage relief role awaits.
With all due respect, Rodriguez doesn't make up for missing out on Ohtani and Soto and Yamamoto. He should not be compared to those guys though. He should be evaluated for what he is, and that's a soon-to-be 27-year-old who can be an impact reliever and might be able to start. That's a sneaky-good pickup for a Blue Jays team that already has a pretty deep pitching staff.
