We are in the thick of the NFL playoffs and just eight teams remain alive to possibly hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas (televised by CBS and streamed on Paramount+). While the narratives heading into Super Wild Card Weekend were the multiple reunion storylines taking place throughout the league, upsets are the key talking point coming out of the opening round of the postseason.
Contenders like the Chiefs, Bills, and Lions were able to advance against lower seeds, but half of the slate was filled with upsets. The Texans and Buccaneers were able to take down the Browns and Eagles as home underdogs, while the Packers marched into AT&T Stadium as a No. 7 seed to take down the Dallas Cowboys in convincing fashion.
Now, we're looking forward to a divisional round that has plenty of juicy matchups, including the latest chapter in the rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. As we gear up for the continuation of these playoffs, let's take a look at the early odds for the divisional round and see who the oddsmakers have advancing to the conference championships.
Divisional round early odds
(All lines via Caesars Sportsbook; all games on Sunday unless noted)
| GAME | EARLY LINE | EARLY TOTAL | EARLY MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
Texans at Ravens (Saturday) | Ravens -9.5 | 45.5 | Texans +345, Ravens -455 |
Packers at 49ers (Saturday) | 49ers -10 | 50 | Packers +360, 49ers -480 |
Buccaneers at Lions | Lions -6 | 48.5 | Buccaneers +210, Lions -260 |
Chiefs at Bills | Bills -2.5 | 46 | Chiefs +126, Bills -150 |
Notable movement, trends
Texans at Ravens (Saturday)
The Texans are fresh off a blowout win over the Browns where C.J. Stroud continued to shine as one of the league's best young quarterbacks. However, this next test will be the toughest of his young career as he'll have to go into Baltimore to face a Ravens team that is coming off a first-round bye. While getting rest is typically looked at as a welcomed advantage, it hasn't been particularly profitable for Baltimore. Since Lamar Jackson became the full-time starter in 2019, the Ravens are 5-9 ATS when they have the rest advantage. This season, the club is 5-4 ATS at home. As for the Texans, they are 5-4 ATS on the road this season.
Packers at 49ers (Saturday)
The Niners are coming off the bye, but unlike the Ravens above do seem to take advantage of this rest edge. When given the rest advantage, San Francisco has covered 63% of their games (17-10 ATS) under Kyle Shanahan. That is the fourth-best cover rate over that stretch (since 2017). They are also 2-0 with the rest advantage this season. That said, Santa Clara hasn't been stellar home turf for them as the 49ers are just 3-5 ATS at home this season. As for the Packers, they are 5-5 ATS on the road. This is currently the highest total on the divisional round slate, and for good reason. The Over is 11-7 ATS for the Packers this season (including playoffs), while the Over is 10-7 for the Niners.
Buccaneers at Lions
What will be interesting to see in this game is if Tampa Bay's knack for covering on the road this season bleeds into the playoffs. They are a six-point road dog heading into Detroit and were a league-best 8-1 ATS on the road this season. Detroit was 5-4 ATS at Ford Field this year (including playoffs). Meanwhile, the Over has hit in 66.7% of the Lions home games this season.
Chiefs at Bills
This is the first time in Patrick Mahomes' career that he will be on the road in the playoffs, so there isn't much to lean on in terms of previous postseason trends for the Chiefs QB. That said, Kansas City is 4-3-1 ATS on the road this season. As for the Bills, who are a 2.5-point favorite in this head-to-head, are 5-4 ATS at home this year (including playoffs). With the Chiefs playing on Saturday night and Buffalo's playoff matchup being moved to Monday due to weather, there is a bit of a rest discrepancy in favor of Kansas City. Andy Reid's team covered both instances where they had the rest advantage this season, while the Bills were 3-2 ATS when they had the rest disadvantage.
