In the final week of the 2022 NFL regular season, we have a division title up for grabs and the two teams vying for it playing against each other. The AFC South title is on the line when the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars square off on Saturday night.
These two teams met just a few weeks ago as the Jags emerged victorious, but much has changed since then -- especially for Tennessee. That first matchup was Tennessee's third consecutive loss after beginning the season 7-3, and the Titans have lost three more in a row since. They're also on their second quarterback since that game, and have injury issues all over the place on offense and defense.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, is on a bit of a roll. The Jaguars have won five of six games since their bye, including victories over the Ravens, Cowboys and Jets. Trevor Lawrence has turned his second year into his breakout season, and the defense has held consecutive opponents to only three points.
So, which of these two teams will claim the AFC South crown? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
How to watch
Date: Saturday, Jan. 7 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Nissan Stadium -- Nashville, Tennessee
TV: ABC/ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Jaguars -6.5 | O/U 40 (courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Titans have the ball
At this point in the season, the Tennessee offense basically boils down to just one question: How much can Derrick Henry do all on his own?
Ryan Tannehill is on injured reserve, joining Taylor Lewan, Nate Davis, Ben Jones, Dillon Radunz and Dontrell Hilliard. Malik Willis has been benched in favor of Joshua Dobbs, who was on the Detroit Lions' practice squad as recently as Dec. 21. In other words, the Titans are working without their top two quarterbacks, three of their five starting offensive linemen and their passing-down running back. They have arguably the least-imposing crew of pass catchers in the NFL with Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Austin Hooper and Chigoziem Okonkwo being the primary options in 11 and 12 personnel packages.
So, again, how much can Henry do all on his own? The Titans will certainly let him try to run all over the Jaguars, all game long. He carried 17 times for 121 yards and a score the last time these two teams met, and I would be shocked if he didn't come close to doubling that number of carries this time around, even if the Titans get behind. They just can't afford to put the game on Dobbs' shoulders, no matter how surprisingly decent he looked against the Cowboys last week.
The Jaguars are seventh in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and 12th in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA, but have been at their most vulnerable on off-tackle runs. Edge rushers Josh Allen and Travon Walker are twitchy, athletic types who like to get around the edge, so it makes sense that they'd be somewhat vulnerable to runs directly at them. Expect to see a whole heck of a lot of those on Saturday evening.
When the Jaguars have the ball
Here's an excerpt of what we wrote two weeks ago about the progression of Trevor Lawrence, before the Jaguars took on the Jets on Thursday night:
Over his last six games, Lawrence has completed 157-of-223 passes (70.4%) for 1,680 yards (7.5 per attempt), 14 touchdowns, and just one interception. He's third in the NFL in TruMedia's version of expected points added (EPA) per dropback during that span, and while he's faced a few pass-funnel defenses (Ravens, Lions, Titans), he just got done tearing through the vaunted Cowboys defense for 318 yards and four touchdowns last week...
Lawrence's super power is avoiding sacks. Despite working behind what most would agree is a subpar offensive line, he's been dropped on only 4.6% of his dropbacks, and in recent weeks he has been much more effective at scrambling away from opponent pressure. According to TruMedia, he took off downfield 9.6% of the time when pressured in Weeks 1 through 8, averaging 7.9 yards per scramble. Since Week 9, he's taken off 16.4% of the time and averaging 9.4 yards per scamper. Couple his escapability with the fact that he has been getting rid of the ball increasingly quickly (55.6% of his throws have been released within 2.5 seconds of the snap since Week 9, up from 49.1% prior to that), and it's extremely difficult to get him to the ground unless you hit him as soon as he gets to the top of his drop.
Lawrence hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in his last two games, completing 37-of-52 passes for 381 yards and an interception in victories over the Jets and Texans. He's taken just two sacks during that time, though, while adding 55 yards and a score on nine rushing attempts. Add it all up and he's 194 of 275 (70.5%) for 2,061 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions across the Jaguars' eight most recent games. He stays avoiding sacks and getting rid of the ball extremely quickly, and his playmaking receivers on the perimeter and over the middle have taken off along with him.
Unlike the last time we wrote about Lawrence's progress, he's in a favorable matchup for his upcoming game. The Jets have one of the NFL's best defenses, sporting a high-level pass rush and one of the best coverage groups in the NFL. The Titans are only average at getting after the quarterback, and they have arguably the NFL's most flammable secondary.
The last time these two teams played, Lawrence torched them for 368 yards and three scores while completing 30-of-42 pass attempts. It was Evan Engram (11 catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns) and Zay Jones (8-77-1) doing the majority of the damage in that contest, but Lawrence has spread the wealth to Christian Kirk just as often in recent weeks. All three should have advantageous matchups here, and the Jaguars should put the game in Lawrence's hands and let him attack with that trio.
It's nearly impossible to run on the Titans, anyway, as evidenced by Travis Etienne and JaMycal Hasty combining for 45 yards on 21 carries last time around. Tennessee ranks second in the league in yards allowed per carry (3.4) and even shut down the Dallas run game last week despite being without the services of Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry, David Long, Zach Cunningham and Bud Dupree -- the latter three of whom remain out for this matchup. Etienne can contribute as a pass-catcher, though part of Lawrence's step forward of late has been shifting a significant portion of his pass distribution from his backs to the receivers, and that has led to a reduction in targets for Etienne. Prediction: Jaguars 24, Titans 16
