If you had looked at my top props last week and bet the opposite, you'd be rich. I'm talking wildly rich -- own-your-own-island rich.
I put in the work, studied the players, crunched the numbers and airballed. Went 0 for 4 on my top props for last week's playoff games. Pretty far cry from the 10-3 record I put together on one-game props during the regular season.
Lamar Jackson's over rushing prop? He had a long run called back by a penalty and didn't play in the fourth quarter. Baker Mayfield over 1.5 touchdowns prop? Rashard Higgins fumbled that one away. Aaron Jones under total yards prop? He ripped off a 60-yard run and that was the end of that. Alvin Kamara under total yards prop? Missed it by 3 yards.
So why should you read what's ahead? I still trust my process and even added to it, setting my own over/under lines before seeing what William Hill's odds were. Any line that is well off of what I had is one I jumped on. A couple are below. Hopefully that helps.
Why else should you keep reading? Well, if you do the opposite of what I suggest, you'll probably come out ahead. You're welcome.
Buccaneers at Packers
Top Prop
Leonard Fournette Over 22.5 receiving yards (-115)
Am I getting played here? Fournette has come down with at least 30 receiving yards in three of his past four including each of two playoff games. Something closer to 30.5 should be the line. Fournette definitely played in the passing-downs role last week with Ronald Jones back, checking in on 13 third downs and 12 second downs of 6-plus yards. By comparison, Jones played one third down and three long second downs. Figure Fournette will remain in position to catch passes and put up some yardage against a Green Bay defense that's yielded 7.3 yards per catch to running backs over its past nine games.
More I like
Davante Adams Over 87.5 receiving yards (-115)
This line opened up at 86.5, so it's trending up. In the Buccaneers' past five games, they've given up 11.2 yards per catch to all receivers with at least one getting 85 yards in four of five games. Carlton Davis might get assigned to Adams, but that won't stop Rodgers from throwing to his top receiver. As recently as last week the Packers schemed Adams up against Jalen Ramsey, considered the best cornerback in football, and he had some nice catches against him (so did Allen Lazard!). Davis isn't Ramsey. If you're asking me if the best receiver in the NFL this year can crack 3 yards over the 85 yards the Bucs have yielded lately at home, I'm going to say yes every time.
Robert Tonyan Over 32.5 receiving yards (-120)
Tonyan had just 25 receiving yards in his earlier meeting with the Bucs, but that felt like a game Green Bay punted on by halftime. I loved Tonyan's involvement against the Rams last week and am expecting something similar against the Bucs. He's the perfect short-area outlet for Rodgers to hit when the Buccaneers bring a blitz.
Squeezing the juice
Robert Tonyan Over 3.5 receptions (+120)
I'll take it a step further on Tonyan: Tampa Bay's allowed a 68% catch rate to tight ends over the past five weeks and five-plus receptions to opposing tight ends in seven of their past eight games. Tonyan's receptions totals dipped in the final three weeks of the regular season but in the four games before -- and one game after -- he's had at least four grabs.
Packers -6 (+140)
The Packers have won by seven-plus points in 13 of 14 wins this year. It's not outlandish in the least to think they could cover that larger number against Tampa Bay, especially if the Bucs offense is handicapped by skill-position players rolling at less than 100 percent.
Bills at Chiefs
Top Prop
John Brown Over 52.5 yards (-115)
Brown's receiving over was one of the bets I managed to get right last week. It helped that he had 11 targets, tied for his season-high. The hunch is that the Bills throw a bunch on the Chiefs (they barely run the ball anyway). Brown should have opportunities to pick up chunks of yardage. I honestly think this line is at least 10 yards too low. I also want to put it out here that Cole Beasley's receiving yardage prop is also of interest if it's around this number or less.
More I like
Bills Over 26.5 points (-105), Over 28.0 points (+130)
There's not a lot of data that suggests that the Chiefs defense can slow down the Bills. They held the Browns to 17 points but nearly allowed a touchdown late in the first half last week that would have pushed their total to 24. The Browns aren't in the same offensive universe as the Bills. Buffalo had a string of nine straight with at least 26 points broken last week against a very good Ravens defense. I suspect they'll push for 27-plus points against the Chiefs, making the over on 28 points pretty reasonable.
Squeezing the juice
Travis Kelce to score a TD and the Chiefs to win (+170)
The guy who has a dozen touchdowns this season finding the end zone in a game his team is favored? Why not invest in that combo? It seems economically better than taking Kelce's anytime TD prop at minus-125 and the Chiefs moneyline at minus-170 separately. The odds are slightly off from what a traditional parlay would pay (plus-186), but it feels about as safe as you can get. Or, if for some reason you're not thrilled with Kelce, you could do the same version of this wager with Tyreek Hill scoring, and it pays plus-175.
